Asian technology stocks are primed to rally by another 15% to 20% this year, driven by surging investor optimism in artificial intelligence, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The firm cited rising capital expenditure in data centers and continued earnings upgrades in key semiconductor names as the primary tailwinds.

“AI will continue to lead this upcycle on the growth in datacenter capex in 2025 and more confidence in 2026 growth,” analysts including Gokul Hariharan wrote in a report.

“We are not advising any meaningful rotation away from AI stocks in the next three months and would prefer” to stick with the winners.

JPMorgan’s top picks include regional chip giants such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), SK Hynix Inc., Advantest Corp, and Delta Electronics Inc., all of which are expected to benefit from steady demand and positive earnings revisions over the next year.

AI-related stocks have outpaced broader Asian equity markets this year, as reflected in Bloomberg’s regional semiconductor index, which has risen over 12%.

Robust demand for AI memory chips from global tech majors has kept supply chains busy and investors optimistic, with semiconductor firms emerging as the clearest beneficiaries of the generative AI boom.

SK Hynix rallies on Tuesday; analysts expect strong earnings

SK Hynix shares surged as much as 9.1% on Tuesday, spearheading a broader rally in South Korean chip stocks and lifting the Kospi index ahead of most regional benchmarks, which also saw gains following President Trump’s announcement of a Middle East cease-fire.

The stock is on course to post its sharpest daily gain in more than two months.

SK Hynix, a key South Korean supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips for US AI leader Nvidia, is widely expected by analysts to post strong earnings in the coming quarters, fuelled by sustained demand from the global AI boom.

The company is also seen as a prime beneficiary of South Korea’s new AI-focused agenda under President Lee Jae-myung, who has pledged a 100 trillion won (approximately $72.93 billion) investment to transform the country into a global AI leader.

Geopolitical headwinds remain

Meanwhile, SoftBank’s founder Masayoshi Son is reportedly in discussions with TSMC to co-develop a $1 trillion AI and robotics manufacturing hub in Arizona, dubbed “Project Crystal Land.”

Modeled after China’s Shenzhen, the project is envisioned as a sprawling innovation zone for next-generation industrial robots and chips, according to Bloomberg.

Despite the positive sentiment, global chipmakers are facing renewed geopolitical pressures.

Shares of TSMC fell on Monday following a Reuters report that the US Department of Commerce is considering revoking authorizations that allow companies like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix to ship American equipment to their Chinese plants.

Jefferies analysts believe the move may be a bargaining tactic by the Trump administration amid trade negotiations with China.

“The revocation would likely do more harm to these companies than to China,” the analysts wrote, adding that the US still wants major chipmakers to deepen their investments domestically.

Cautious outlook beyond 2025

While near-term forecasts remain upbeat, some analysts warn that the semiconductor cycle may face challenges by 2026.

Morningstar’s Phelix Lee said in a note that the sector is likely entering the early phase of a downcycle.

Concerns include elevated valuations, uncertainty over tariffs, and a potential mismatch between capital spending and long-term demand.

Lee estimates that capital expenditure from major US and Chinese tech firms will exceed $300 billion in 2025—representing a 40% increase year-on-year.

“This sets a high bar for sustaining momentum into 2026,” he noted. As a result, Morningstar recommends investors focus on best-in-class names such as TSMC and GlobalWafers.

Non-AI sectors see limited upside

JPMorgan’s report also urged caution on non-AI-related tech sectors, such as smartphone and PC manufacturers.

These companies may continue to see earnings downgrades amid weak consumer demand and fading impact from China’s consumption subsidies.

As the AI race reshapes the region’s tech landscape, investors are keeping their focus on the key players driving the transformation. While short-term catalysts remain in place, navigating the long-term risks may be crucial for sustained gains.

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The war between Israel and Iran lasted just under two weeks. Then, without warning, US President Donald Trump got on social media and said it was over. He called it a “Complete and Total Ceasefire.” 

The missiles stopped flying, for now.

But the truth is that there’s no signed agreement. No official statements from Iran or Israel. No roadmap for what happens next. Trump says the war is over “forever.” 

Iran says it’s waiting to see if Israel really stops. And while the US claims a diplomatic win, the battlefield is still hot.

This story is about diplomacy, credibility, and how fast modern wars can now start and stop. It’s also a glimpse into how international power is being reshuffled in real time. 

How did we even get here so fast?

Just over a week ago, Israel escalated airstrikes deep into Iranian territory, targeting military and nuclear sites. 

In response, Iran fired long-range missiles at Israeli cities, killing civilians and damaging infrastructure. 

Then, over the weekend, the US entered the fight. Trump ordered over 125 American warplanes to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran hit back with missiles aimed at a US airbase in Qatar, but none caused casualties.

According to Trump, the Iranians gave early warning to Qatar so the US could prepare. Iran’s foreign ministry later called the strike symbolic. No Americans were hurt.

Then came the surprise: on Monday night, Trump declared that Iran and Israel had agreed to stop fighting. He said he brokered the deal himself, working through Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Qatari leaders. 

Iran would stop firing for 12 hours, followed by Israel for the next 12. That was the plan.

The problem however, is that Iran never confirmed it agreed to this. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there was no deal; only a willingness to pause retaliation if Israel stopped first.

And Israel didn’t make a public statement at all. Still, after a brutal final round of strikes, the violence paused. So, was Trump bluffing? Or did it work?

Who gained what and who took the hit?

For Trump, the optics are a win. He looks like a leader who can start and end a war in under two weeks, without American casualties. 

The timing helps his campaign. The war stops before it drags the US into a broader conflict, and he gets to call it a “peace deal.” His team even branded it “The 12-Day War.”

For Iran, the picture is more complex. Its nuclear program took a hit. Civilian casualties were high, with over 400 dead and 3,000 injured, according to Iranian officials. 

But its leadership avoided a wider war that could have collapsed its economy or triggered regime instability. Iran retaliated just enough to save face, then pulled back.

Israel got to test its long-range capabilities deep inside Iranian territory and may have inflicted lasting damage. 

But the cost was also high. Iranian missile strikes reached Beersheba, killing civilians and exposing the limits of Israel’s air defense. Some Israeli ministers openly called for regime change in Tehran, which further complicated diplomacy.

Qatar, however, emerged as the biggest diplomatic winner. The Gulf nation hosted the US base Iran targeted and played go-between for Trump’s ceasefire push.

It’s now the quiet broker of Middle Eastern diplomacy, expanding its soft power far beyond gas exports.

Oil markets delivered the clearest verdict: the threat of escalation was real, and its sudden removal erased nearly all of the risk premium. Brent crude and WTI both plunged over 7%, and early trading the next day saw further losses of nearly 3–5%.

This price reset benefits energy importers like India, Japan, and the eurozone, all of which were exposed to last week’s price spike. But it also exposes how easily geopolitical shocks can swing commodity markets, especially when US involvement is unpredictable.

Is the ceasefire holding or just a pause?

Right now, there’s no active fighting. That alone is significant. But without a formal agreement, verification, or guarantees, it’s not technically a ceasefire but a mutual timeout.

Iran has stated publicly that it won’t continue attacks if Israel stops first. But it hasn’t signed anything. 

Israel hasn’t confirmed anything either. The US took the lead in framing the ceasefire, but that framing depends on all sides wanting to avoid the next step.

In a phone interview with NBC News, President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would be permanent, saying:

“I don’t believe they will ever be shooting at each other again.”

American diplomat Dennis Ross said:

For now, I think this is going to hold, and I think you will have an end to the war, Iran has no interest in resuming anything soon.

This is a fragile arrangement. It worked because both sides hit a limit. Iran didn’t want more economic damage. 

Israel achieved key targets. Trump got the headlines. But nothing fundamental has changed.

Iran’s nuclear program is wounded, not gone. Israel still sees Iran as an existential threat. And Iran’s military still has a long-range missile arsenal ready.

The three scenarios ahead

The first option is a long quiet period. Iran regroups, Israel pulls back, and quiet diplomacy begins. Qatar stays involved, and the US watches from a distance. Trump sells the moment as proof of strength.

The second option is sudden re-escalation. A new Israeli strike, a proxy militia in Iraq, or a miscalculation in the Gulf could light the match again.

The third and most likely scenario is the return of the shadow war. Cyberattacks. Sabotage. Naval harassment. Assassinations. All beneath the surface. All deniable. 

This is how Israel and Iran have fought for years. The recent open warfare just reminded the world of the stakes.

The guns may be silent, but nothing is resolved. Iran’s nuclear program is still alive. Israel’s fears haven’t changed. Trump’s announcement gave everyone an excuse to stand down. 

But this ceasefire isn’t a final act. It’s just intermission.

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European stock markets surged at Tuesday’s open, with investors embracing a significant relief rally fueled by an announcement from US President Donald Trump of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Travel and leisure stocks led the charge as the apparent de-escalation of the Middle East conflict boosted risk appetite across the continent.

About 20 minutes into the trading session, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up by a strong 1.2%. The optimism was widespread, with all major bourses firmly in positive territory.

Germany’s DAX index jumped an impressive 1.8%, leading the gains.

The rally was particularly pronounced in sectors most sensitive to geopolitical stability, with the Stoxx Travel and Leisure index soaring 4.2%, putting it on track for its biggest one-day jump since April 10.

This market buoyancy is a direct reaction to President Trump’s declaration on his Truth Social platform, which offered the prospect of an end to the recent hostilities.

Trump wrote:

It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE … for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!

The announcement came shortly after Iranian state media reported that Tehran had launched its “last round” of missiles at Israel, and crucially, had refrained from targeting the vital Strait of Hormuz, a move that helped alleviate fears of broader disruptions to global oil supply.

This development prompted a wave of positive sentiment that began with a rise in US stock futures and Asia-Pacific markets on Monday night.

However, it is important to note that as of Tuesday morning, neither Iran nor Israel has publicly confirmed acceptance of the ceasefire timeline announced by President Trump, adding a layer of caution to the otherwise bullish mood.

Attention shifts to diplomacy and economic data

With geopolitical tensions seemingly easing, investor attention in Europe is now turning to other significant events.

The NATO summit kicks off today in The Hague, where leaders are expected to discuss security priorities in the wake of the recent global tensions.

On the economic front, traders will be closely watching Germany’s Ifo Business Climate report for June.

This key survey will provide valuable insights into the health and sentiment within Europe’s largest economy, offering important clues about its near-term trajectory.

Movers and shakers

While Tuesday’s open was strong, it marked a sharp reversal from Monday’s session, when the pan-European Stoxx 600 began the week with a 0.3% decline.

Looking at Monday’s individual stock movements, some of the worst performers included Poste Italiane, which closed 6.3% lower, Danish jewelry maker Pandora, which shed 5.3%, and pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk, which also lost 5.3%.

Novo Nordisk’s drop followed the announcement that it had terminated its deal with US telehealth firm Hims & Hers over concerns about the sale of Wegovy copycat drugs.

In stark contrast, London-listed shares of Spectris, a maker of testing equipment, jumped an impressive 15.7% on Monday.

The surge came after it was reported that private equity firm Advent had agreed to acquire the company for £4.4 billion ($6 billion).

This development came after Spectris had rejected a bid from private equity giant KKR earlier in the month. Signaling a potential bidding war, KKR stated on Monday that it “strongly encourages [Spectris] shareholders to take no action with regards to the Advent offer.”

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Jio Financial Services shares witnessed a 3% rise on Tuesday as investors responded enthusiastically to a combination of robust quarterly results, a major acquisition, and a surge in trading volumes.

At the time of publication, the Jio Financial Services shares were trading at Rs 302.05.

The rally, which saw nearly 10.6 million shares worth over Rs 318 crore change hands, highlights renewed market confidence in the company’s growth trajectory and strategic direction.

Jio Financial Services shares are driven by strong fundamentals

The latest rally in Jio Financial Services shares came after the company posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 316 crore for the fourth quarter of FY25, marking a 2% year-on-year increase.

While interest income for the January–March 2025 quarter dipped slightly to Rs 276 crore, fee and commission income rose to Rs 39 crore, reflecting the company’s efforts to diversify its income streams.

One of the most striking figures from the results was the explosive growth in assets under management (AUM) in the lending and leasing segment.

AUM soared to Rs 10,053 crore, compared to just Rs 173 crore a year earlier, signaling JFS’s successful push into new business areas and its ability to scale rapidly.

The company’s aggressive expansion into digital payments, coupled with its strong balance sheet and backing from the Reliance Group, positions it well for future growth. 

Strategic acquisitions

The developments came in the backdrop of Jio Financial Services completing the acquisition of over 7.9 crore equity shares of Jio Payments Bank Limited (JPBL) from the State Bank of India (SBI).

The acquisition was concluded last week at the value of Rs 104.54 crore.

The move follows JFS’s earlier announcement in March to purchase SBI’s 17.8% stake in the payments bank and is widely seen as a strategic step to strengthen the company’s foothold in the digital payments and fintech ecosystem.

The shareholding pattern of the company also reflects strong confidence with 47.1% held by promoters, 11.7% by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), 6.6% by mutual funds, and 26.8% by the public.

‘Hold’ consensus and limited upside

Analyst recommendations for Jio Financial Services stock are currently neutral.

Stock market research and analytics platform Trendlyne indicates that 100% of analysts covering the stock rate it as a ‘Hold’.

The average target price is Rs 272, which suggests a downside of around 7–10% from current levels, as the stock recently traded above Rs 293. 

There are no ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’ recommendations at this time, reflecting a consensus that investors should wait for further clarity on growth and integration of recent acquisitions before taking new positions.

For investors, the coming quarters will be crucial as JFS integrates JPBL, seeks to grow its AUM further, and navigates an increasingly competitive fintech landscape.

The company’s ability to deliver on these fronts will determine whether the recent surge in its share price marks the start of a sustained uptrend or a temporary spike.

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Shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) surged to a record high on Tuesday, buoyed by news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel announced by US President Donald Trump.

The announcement sparked renewed optimism in financial markets, with investors pivoting toward safer assets like Australian equities.

CBA’s share price rose as much as 2.3% to A$188.55 in early trading, propelling its market capitalization past the $200 billion mark for the first time, according to Bloomberg data.

The rally solidified CBA’s position among the ten largest global lenders, surpassing Royal Bank of Canada’s market value of $179 billion.

“The Australian market tends to be sensitive to geopolitical developments as heavyweight mining stocks are exposed to commodity prices, and the ceasefire announcement has been a catalyst for the strong recovery after a few disappointing sessions,” said Junvum Kim, senior sales trader at Saxo Asia Pacific.

However, despite the geopolitical tensions which have rattled global markets, CBA has continued to attract investors, largely due to Australia’s perceived economic stability and the bank’s dominant role in the domestic financial sector.

What is behind CBA stock’s appeal among investors?

As the largest constituent of Australia’s benchmark index, making up 12%, CBA has become a go-to stock for offshore investors seeking defensive exposure.

“The driving reason for this continued rally is that there are still offshore investors who want exposure to the Australian stock market,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia in Sydney in a Bloomberg report.

Investors looking to invest in the relative safety of the nation’s equities are heading toward CBA, he added.

Source: Bloomberg

The bank’s long-term performance backs up investor enthusiasm.

Over the past five years, CBA’s share price has climbed more than 170%.

This is despite its earnings per share growing at a modest 5.4% annually—suggesting that market sentiment has lifted valuations beyond what earnings alone would justify.

Valuation concerns linger despite momentum

However, some analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of CBA’s rally.

Commonwealth Bank is seen as having the least return potential among major global lenders.

It also ranks among the most expensive bank stocks, trading at 30 times forward earnings—double the valuation of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which trades at a multiple of 15.

“Commonwealth’s A$300 billion market capitalization is being driven more by the absence of better investment alternatives than by its intrinsic strengths,” Citi analyst Thomas Strong wrote in a note to clients.

He believes that investors have largely chased earnings momentum, joining a broader trend of rotating into bank stocks from other sectors.

He attributes much of the rally to passive investment flows creating a structural squeeze.

Strong warns that history suggests sector rotations—when investors shift funds between industries—can unfold rapidly, potentially putting pressure on the stock.

Outlook: what should you do with the stock?

According to the Wall Street Journal, 10 of 15 analysts covering the stock recommend selling it, with four underweight on the stock, with an average price target of $117.15, an almost 38% downside.

Macquarie, for instance, is bearish, while Citi and UBS warn of stretched valuations and limited core profit growth.

As conviction builds around alternative investment opportunities, Thomas expects this to serve as the trigger that ends Commonwealth Bank’s stretch of share-price outperformance.

He expects that growing conviction in alternative investment ideas could serve as the trigger for a broader correction in CBA’s stock price.

“Short-term momentum is self-fulfilling. The stock’s rise has attracted algorithmic traders and retail investors chasing returns, creating a feedback loop. As shows, the disconnect between its soaring share price and stagnant earnings is stark,” said AInvest.

“The CBA rally is a short-term liquidity-driven phenomenon, not a reflection of durable value. While the stock may continue to climb in the near term, the risks of a sharp correction are high,” the platform says, urging investors to “avoid chasing” the momentum.

“Even if geopolitical distractions keep investors complacent, the fundamentals and broker warnings suggest a peak is near,” it says.

The platform advises investors to wait for a pullback and look for dips below $150 before considering entry, ideally paired with clearer macro stability or earnings upgrades.

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