Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: HTZ) is up nearly 50% in premarket on Thursday after billionaire investor Bill Ackman announced a sizable stake in the car rental company.
Ackman had built a 4.1% stake in Hertz last year. Now, he has increased that stake to 19.8%, as per a source that spoke with CNBC on the condition of anonymity this week.
Ackman’s Pershing Square is now the second largest shareholder of HTZ, shares of which, including today’s gains, are now up more than 100% versus their year-to-date low.
Bill Ackman’s sizable stake in Hertz stock reflects his confidence in what the future holds for this car rental company. However, there’s plenty that suggests HTZ remains a high-risk investment.
For starts, the Nasdaq listed firm lost a total of $2.9 billion in 2024. So, Hertz’ financial health remains shaky, and despite Ackman’s confidence, these losses indicate deeper structural issues.
Additionally, Hertz made a big bet on EVs, particularly Teslas, but that move backfired. The firm faced significant depreciation costs and had to sell of a large portion of its electric vehicle fleet at a loss.
And it’s not like Hertz shares currently pay a dividend to make it any easier to look past the signs of weakness in its financials.
Hertz continues to be a highly volatile stock
Investors should remain cautious on Hertz stock despite Ackman’s announcement as it has a history of extreme stock price swings, dating back to its meme stock surge after bankruptcy in 2020.
While the billionaire’s investment has triggered a short-term rally in HTZ shares, it’s worth noting that the car rental company remains highly volatile and, therefore, risky to own, especially now that fears of a recession ahead have been brewing again.
Finally, the car rental industry highly competitive, with companies like Enterprise and Avis maintaining strong market positions. Hertz’s financial instability and failed EV strategy puts it an even bigger disadvantage compared to rivals.
Wall Street disagrees with Ackman on HTZ shares
Bill Ackman’s increased stake may signal optimism, but the underlying financial struggles, failed EV strategy, and competitive pressures suggest Hertz is a high-risk investment for 2025.
In fact, Wall Street analysts disagree with Ackman on Hertz stock as well. The consensus rating on HTZ shares currently sits at “underweight” with the mean target of $3.31 indicating potential downside of more than 50% from current levels.
What’s also worth mentioning is that Ackman, while a globally revered investor, has made bets in the past that didn’t quite pan out. For example, he loaded up on nearly 20 million shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals at $171 in 2015.
But the company soon became embroiled in accounting scandals and congressional investigations over its drug pricing practices, causing its stock to plummet to just $27, leading to about a $2.0 billion loss for the founder and chief executive of Pershing Square.
The Nikkei 225 index has bounced back this month as the US and Japan continued their negotiations on tariffs. After falling to a low of ¥30,800 on Trump’s Liberation Day, it has rebounded by over 12.4% to the current ¥34,610. It is hovering at the highest point since April 3.
This article provides a Nikkei 225 Index forecast as talks continue and the USD/JPY pair crashes.
US and Japan trade talks
The Nikkei 225 index has bounced back in the past few weeks after Trump hinted that the US and Japan were talking on trade. In a statement on Wednesday, he posted a picture with the negotiating team.
While the Japanese team left the US without a deal, there are chances that the two countries will likely reach a deal.
Trump wants Japan to help the US narrow its trade deficit, which has continued to widen in the past few years. Data released on Thursday showed that Japan made a $63 billion surplus with the US in the fiscal year through March.
Analysts believe that a Japanese deal will involve it buying more US goods, like energy and military equipment. Japan may also commit itself to spending more money on defense.
The rising hopes of a deal explain why the Nikkei 225 index has jumped in the past few weeks. A deal would be a good thing for Japanese companies that do a lot of business in the United States like Nissan, Toyota, and Honda.
Bank of Japan likely to pause hikes
The Nikkei 225 index has also jumped as the ongoing trade war raises the probability that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will opt to maintain interest rates steady for long.
While inflation remains high, another interest rate hike would likely affect the economic growth. The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in March, while the core figure moved from 3.0% to 3.2%.
Most of this inflation is being driven by food prices. Rice, a staple food in Japan, has seen its price jump at the fastest pace in over 50 years.
Japan’s inflation growth is now higher than that of the United States, which narrowed to 2.4% in March. A Bloomberg analyst said:
“On one hand, inflation on the boil argues strongly for a reduction in stimulus. On the other, US tariffs are a risk to growth — a reason to hold. Our base case is for the central bank to stand pat at its next meeting and then hike in July.”
The Nikkei 225 index has also jumped as the Japanese yen has soared recently. Data shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has plunged to a low of 142.32, its lowest level since September last year. It has dropped by over 10% from its highest point this year.
The soaring Japanese yen against the US dollarwill be an added cost to Japanese companies like Toyota and Nissan that are exporting to the United States. That’s because their products are now 10% more expensive in the US.
The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 index has made a V-shaped recovery as it jumped from a low of ¥30,800. It has now soared to a high of ¥34,630, and is hovering at the highest swing since April 3.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards in the past few months. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the index continues rising as bulls target the key resistance point at ¥36,000, the lowest swing in March, and up by 4% from the current level.
The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices have rebounded over the past two weeks as European stocks have emerged as safer havens amid the ongoing trade war. The mid-cap FTSE 250 index rose to £19,250, up from this month’s low of £17,500.
Similarly, the blue-chip FTSE 100 index has soared by almost 10% from its lowest level this month. This article looks at some of the top FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 index shares to watch next week.
Debenhams (DEBS)
Debenhams Group, formerly known as Boohoo, is one of the top FTSE 250 shares to watch next week as it releases its fourth-quarter results.
These numbers come at a time when its stock has plummeted to 19p, much lower than its all-time high of 433.5p in June 2020. Its market cap has crashed to £280 million.
The company has faced significant challenges over the past few years. Growth has stalled, losses have mounted, and competition from the likes of Shein and Temu has increased.
The most recent results showed that Boohoo’s revenue dropped by 15% in the first half of FY’25 to £620 million. Its EBITDA dropped by 11% to £21 million. The company pointed to higher gross margins, which rose to 50.7% and its decision to restructure its US operations.
Asos (ASC)
Asos is another top FTSE 250 stock to watch next week as it also releases its financial results. These results come at a time when its stock is attempting to bounce back. After falling to a low of 222.5p on March 19, the stock has soared by 40% to the current 313p. However, it remains much lower than last year’s high of 452p.
Asos, like Boohoo, has gone through a rough patch as competition rose and demand waned. Its revenue to September 1 last year dropped by 16% to £2.89 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA and loss before taxes jumped by over 40%.
The company is now hoping that its turnaround strategy will help it boost its sales. Its turnaround included measures like reducing inventory, a change in its commercial model that attracted a £100 million charge, and improving its balance sheet. Therefore, its earnings next week will provide more information about its business.
Unilever (ULVR)
Unilever is a top FTSE 100 stock to watch as it publishes its financial results. These numbers will come as the stock has jumped by 19.4% from its lowest level this month.
Unilever, like other companies in the consumer staples industry, has done relatively well during the ongoing trade war between the US and other countries. That’s because the company’s products are essential products. It has also navigated major crisis well in the past.
The consensus among analysts is that its turnover rose to £15 billion, a 2.8% annual increase. This revenue figure will bring the first half figure to £31.5 billion.Its H1 net profit is expected to be £4.3 billion.
St. James Place will be one of the top FTSE 100 shares to watch next week as it also releases its numbers.
The company’s stock has jumped by over 130% from its lowest level in 2024 as it continued to attract assets from investors.
Its recent results showed that the funds under management rose to £190.2 billion, a 13% annual increase. This growth occurred as the gross inflows for the year totaled £18.4 billion.
Therefore, the upcoming results will provide more insight into its business and whether it is still attracting investment inflows.
The FTSE 250 and FTSE 100 indices will react to any potential news on trade from the Trump administration. A report that the UK and the US are negotiating will be a key catalyst. Also, the indices will react to Wall Street earnings from companies like Tesla, IBM, Google, and Procter & Gamble.
GE Aerospace’s stock price is under pressure in 2025 as last year’s rally takes a breather and as investors assess the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on all countries. The stock was trading at $181.80 on Thursday, down by 15% from its highest point this year. This article provides a GE forecast ahead of its earnings.
GE Aerospace business is thriving
GE Aerospace is one of the biggest industrial companies in the United States, with a market cap of over $193 billion.
It is what remained after General Electric spun out is other energy and health businesses. Its main focus is on commercial and defense aircraft engines. Its top engines are the likes of LEAP, GE90, GEnx, and CFM56.
The company’s business has done well in the past few years as its restructuring has left behind a lean and more profitable organization.
At the same time, GE Aerospace has benefited from the robust order book in the past few years. Data shows that Airbus has had net orders of over 5,900 planes since 2018, while Boeing had 2,795 orders.
GE Aviation’s business performs well when the number of aircraft orders is rising. That’s because its engines are used by all types of aircraft, including Boeing 737, 747, 767, Airbus A320, and Airbus 330.
The most recent results showed that GE Aerospace generated orders of $15.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up by 46% from the same period a year earlier.
These numbers helped its revenue to grow by 16% to $9.9 billion, while its net profit rose by 37% to $2.3 billion.
For the year, the company reported over $50.3 billion in orders, up by 32% from a year earlier. Its revenue rose by 9% to $38.7 billion, while its profit margin widened to 19.7%.
Analysts expect GE’s results to show that its revenue stood at $9.05 billion in the first quarter. It will then make $39.4 billion in the full year, followed by $43.56 billion in the next financial year.
Trump tariffs to impact its margins
Donald Trump’s tariffs will have an impact on General Electric’s business from the cost side. Trump has imposed levies on all American imports, including raw materials that GE uses.
Its top raw materials are steel and aluminum, which are now attracting a 25% tariff. Additionally, it utilizes Canadian nickel, which is also subject to tariffs. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the company will see thinner margins.
Additionally, it is a big consumer of rare earths elements that are used to make magnets and other engine parts. China recently announced that it would stop shipping these rare earth metals to the US, which may impact its business.
GE stock price may also be affected if Trump decides to cripple COMAC, the upcoming Chinese company. That’s because the company relies on engines made by GE and CFM, its joint venture with Safran. These odds rose after China barred its airlines from buying Boeing aircraft.
The daily chart indicates that the GE share price has rebounded over the past few weeks as trade tensions have eased. It has remained above the 200-day moving average, a sign that bulls are in control.
Most importantly, GE Aviation stock has formed a giant megaphone pattern, comprising two ascending and diverging trendlines. This pattern often leads to a strong bullish breakout over time.
If this happens, the next key level to watch will be the year-to-date high of $213.95, up by 18% from the current level. A move below the lower side of the megaphone will point to more gains.
The ServiceNow stock price has declined significantly over the past few months, dropping from a high of $1,196 in January to its current level of $772. It has dropped by over 35% from its highest level this year, meaning that it is now in a bear market. This article explains what to expect ahead of its financial results next week.
ServiceNow’s business is thriving
ServiceNow is one of the top technology companies in the United States. It provides a cloud-based platform that provides IT Service Management (ITSM) services. Its main business is to manage and automate workflows for IT services, customer services, and low-code development.
The company provides its services to thousands of companies in the US and other countries. Some of the other clients are firms like Accenture, Adidas, Amazon, Walmart, Apple, and Vodafone Group.
ServiceNow’s business has done well over time as the needs for its solutions rose. Its annual revenue has jumped from $4.5 billion in 2020 to over $10.98 billion in 2024. Also, the company’s profits have been rising in the past few years.
NOW earnings ahead
The next key catalyst for the ServiceNow stock price will be its financial results, which will come out next week.
According to Yahoo Finance, analysts expect its results to show that its revenue rose by 18.5% to $3.09 billion. The average earnings-per-share estimate is expected to be $3.83, higher than the previous estimate of $3.41.
ServiceNow has a long history of beating analysts’ estimates. For example, its EPS was higher than estimates by $0.01 in the last earnings and by $0.27 a quarter earlier.
While the initial earnings often move stocks, the forward estimate is usually a bigger catalyst. The average estimate by analysts is that its current quarter’s revenue will be $3.11 billion, while its annual revenue will be $13.02 billion. If these numbers are accurate, it means that its full-year figure will be 18.5%.
Valuation concerns remain
One of the top concerns about ServiceNow has always been its valuation. Data shows that its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stood at 112.8, down from last year’s high of 179.
Its forward P/E ratio stood at 95.7, much higher than the sector median of 23.2. The non-GAAP P/E ratio is 48.7, also higher than the median of 18.
These numbers are huge, especially when compared with other SaaS companies like Adobe, Microsoft, and Salesforce. Adobe has a forward P/E multiple of 21, while Microsoft and Salesforce have multiples of 28 and 22, respectively.
For a SaaS company like ServiceNow, the best approach to value it is the rule-of-40 metric, which compares its growth and margins.
ServiceNow’s revenue growth is about 21%, while its net profit margin is 16%, giving it a rule-of-40 metric of 38%. That is a sign that the stock is a bit overvalued. However, adding its revenue growth and its FCF margin of 37% shows that it is not all that overvalued.
The daily chart shows that the NOW share price has crashed from a high of $1,196 in January to the current $722. It formed a double-top point at that point, which marked its turnaround. The stock has dropped below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since May 5.
ServiceNow stock price has also formed a death cross after the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. This is one of the most popular bearish crossover patterns.
Therefore, it will likely continue falling after earnings, with the initial target being at $680. A move above the ascending trendline will point to more gains.
Vietnam, a country heavily dependent on coal for its energy needs, has ambitious plans to significantly increase its power generation capacity by 2030.
The country’s newly revised national power plan outlines a strategy that prioritises a shift towards renewable energy sources and the introduction of nuclear power, according to a Reuters report.
This move signifies a significant change in Vietnam’s energy policy, as it seeks to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and diversify its energy mix.
The expansion of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, is expected to play a crucial role in achieving the country’s power generation goals.
Additionally, the inclusion of nuclear power in the energy mix marks a major step for Vietnam, as it explores alternative sources of energy to meet its growing demand.
Total investments
This ambitious plan reflects Vietnam’s commitment to sustainable development and its efforts to address the challenges of climate change.
By transitioning towards cleaner energy sources, the country aims to reduce its carbon emissions and promote a greener future.
The Vietnamese government stated that reaching the targets will necessitate a total investment of $136.3 billion by 2030. This equates to over a quarter of the country’s 2024 gross domestic product.
To avoid power shortages that have alarmed foreign investors and to reduce its reliance on coal, the Southeast Asian industrial hub must rapidly expand its power supply to keep up with rising electricity demand.
Vietnam’s government announced a plan late on Wednesday to increase its total installed capacity to between 183 and 236 gigawatts by 2030.
This is a significant increase from the more than 80 gigawatts at the end of 2023.
Focus on nuclear
In order to do so, the country is resuming its investment in nuclear power, despite having suspended the program in 2016 due to budgetary restrictions and the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.
The government announced that the initial nuclear power plants, with a combined capacity of up to 6.4 GW, are expected to be operational between 2030 and 2035.
They also stated that an additional 8 GW capacity would be added by mid-century.
The International Atomic Energy Agency had said that small modular reactors are still under development, but they would be more affordable to build than large power reactors.
Officials have said Vietnam has discussed these small modular reactors.
Earlier this year, the government announced its intention to engage in discussions with foreign partners, including Russia, Japan, South Korea, France, and the United States, regarding nuclear power projects.
Following this announcement, Korea Electric Power Corp expressed interest in Vietnam’s nuclear projects on Tuesday, as the company’s chief visited the country.
Power shares
The government announced that the new plan will increase solar power’s share of total capacity to between 25.3% and 31.1% by 2030.
This is an increase from 23.8% in 2020. Additionally, onshore and nearshore wind energy will rise to between 14.2% and 16.1% by 2030, compared to almost none at the beginning of the decade.
Authorities have established new targets following concerns among investors stemming from a retroactive adjustment to preferential pricing for solar and onshore wind energy producers.
The plan outlines a significant shift in energy sources, with coal-fired power plants’ share of total generation capacity decreasing from approximately one-third in 2020 to between 13.1% and 16.9%.
Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas plants, currently non-existent in the mix, are projected to contribute between 9.5% and 12.3% of the total generation capacity.
The Vietnam government’s target for offshore wind energy is 6-17 GW between 2030 and 2035. While an earlier goal of 6 GW for this decade was set, no offshore wind energy has been built yet.
Japan navigated another year of overall trade deficits, but a ballooning surplus with the United States has emerged as a critical point of focus, particularly as Japanese negotiators engage in tense discussions with the Trump administration over potential and existing tariffs.
Finance Ministry data released Thursday paints a complex picture of Japan’s trade dynamics against a backdrop of global economic friction.
Provisional statistics revealed that for the fiscal year ending in March, Japan recorded a global trade deficit totaling 5.2 trillion yen (approximately $37 billion).
This marked the fourth consecutive year the nation imported more goods and services than it exported overall.
Driving factors included a 4.7% rise in annual imports, exacerbated by a weaker Japanese yen which inflated the cost of bringing goods into the country.
However, overall exports also climbed 5.9%, boosted by robust shipments of vehicles and computer chips, as well as a notable influx of foreign tourists whose spending counts towards exports.
Contrastingly, Japan’s trade relationship with the United States yielded significantly different results.
The trade surplus with the US surged to 9 trillion yen (around $63 billion) during the same fiscal year.
This growing imbalance stands as a particularly sensitive issue for US President Donald Trump, who has frequently targeted such surpluses in his trade rhetoric.
Navigating the tariff gauntlet
The release of these figures coincides with ongoing negotiations in Washington, where Japanese officials are working to counter US tariff threats.
Japan, a long-standing key ally and major investor in the United States employing hundreds of thousands of Americans, finds itself navigating a challenging trade environment.
President Trump initially announced plans on April 2 to impose broad tariffs, including a potential 24% levy on imports from Japan.
While market reactions prompted a partial 90-day suspension of these new tariffs for many nations (excluding China, which faced increases up to 145%), Japan still confronts significant trade barriers.
It currently faces a 10% baseline tariff on various goods, alongside recently imposed 25% taxes on crucial exports like cars, auto parts, steel, and aluminum.
These duties present a considerable challenge for the administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Monthly trends and shifting flows
Looking at more recent data, Japan registered a trade surplus of 544 billion yen (about $4 billion) for the month of March alone.
March exports saw a nearly 4% year-on-year increase, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth, although the pace slightly moderated compared to February.
Exports to the US grew by 3% in March, while shipments to the broader Asian region increased by 5.5%.
Notably, while direct exports to China decreased, shipments surged to other Asian economies like Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.
This pattern led some analysts to speculate about strategic shifts in trade routes.
“This is likely due to the rerouting of exports within Asia to avoid tariff conflicts with the US,” commented Min Joo Kang, a senior economist at ING, in a report.
Concessions on the horizon?
The high stakes of the ongoing negotiations have fueled speculation among some analysts that Tokyo might eventually offer concessions to appease Washington, potentially involving increased imports of American agricultural products like rice.
Rice is a culturally significant and traditionally protected staple in Japan, but recent domestic shortages have driven up prices, perhaps creating an opening for such a move.
As negotiations continue, the juxtaposition of Japan’s overall trade deficit with its substantial and growing surplus with the United States underscores the complex pressures shaping global commerce and bilateral relations under the current tariff regime.
At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $63.68 per barrel, up 1.4%.
Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $66.61 a barrel, up 1.2% from the previous close.
Wednesday saw both benchmarks close 2% higher, reaching their highest levels since April 3.
This puts them on track for their first weekly increase in three weeks.
As Thursday marks the final settlement day of the week due to the upcoming Good Friday and Easter holidays, investors are keeping a close watch.
Sanctions on Iran
The Trump administration revealed new sanctions on Wednesday targeting Iran’s oil exports, with measures against a China-based “teapot” refinery also included.
“The move aims to ramp up pressure on Tehran amid heightened tensions over its nuclear program,” FXstreet said in a report.
The US Treasury Department issued a statement that US President Donald Trump’s sanctions aim to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero.
The sanctions are meant to deter Chinese imports of Iranian oil as part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
China has been the largest importer of Iranian oil over the last couple of years.
Imports
Moreover, data from the customs authority showed that China’s overall crude oil imports increased to 12.1 million barrels per day in March.
This figure was approximately 1.7 million barrels per day higher than imports in January and February, and it was almost 5% higher than imports in the previous year.
Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said:
A sharp rise in oil imports from Iran is being held responsible for this, even though China does not publish any official data in this regard.
Vortexa, the shiptracking agency, reports that seaborne oil imports have seen a significant rise, primarily fueled by record-high shipments from Iran to Shandong province.
Independent Chinese refineries are suspected of having imported oil from Iran in the run-up to the stricter US sanctions.
Trump’s sanctions against Iran come at a time when trade tensions between the US and China are boiling.
Experts believe that Trump’s sanctions have been placed to pile on more misery for China’s economy.
Less availability of cheaper Iranian barrels in the market would increase competitiveness of oil coming from the Middle East and Russia in the coming weeks. China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil.
OPEC compensation plans
Adding to concerns about supply, Wednesday’s output cut compensation plan by OPEC+ further supported oil prices.
The updated OPEC compensation plan increases monthly production cuts, now ranging from 196,000 barrels per day to 520,000 barrels a day, effective from this month until June 2026, the cartel said in an official release.
The previous plan had lower cuts, ranging from 189,000 barrels per day to 435,000 barrels a day.
The planned output cuts mean that the cartel’s decision to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in May would be largely nullified.
Eight members of the OPEC+ alliance, in a surprising move earlier this month, agreed to raise crude oil production by 411,000 barrels a day in May. This weighed on sentiments, and oil prices slipped as a result.
The cartel is scheduled to start unwinding its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from April by increasing output by 135,000 barrels a day.
The market was expecting a similar rise in May as well.
Gains may not hold
The rise in oil prices this week may not hold as global demand is likely to be negatively affected due to the ongoing trade tensions.
“If we see a long-lasting trade war through 2025, Rystad Energy projects a 15% reduction in 2025 global GDP growth – from 2.8% to 2.4% – which would lower our oil demand growth forecast from 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 600,000 bpd – an almost 50% decrease,” said Janiv Shah, vice president, commodity markets analysis, oil, at Rystad Energy.
However, we expect supply corrections and disruptions, along with rising energy demand in the northern hemisphere summer, to keep Brent prices around $70 per barrel.
Millions of jobs. Billions in output. A key driver of the US labour market for over two decades will be shaken up.
The Biden-era approach to immigration left room for labour force participation and tax contribution from undocumented immigrants. The Trump administration is moving in the opposite direction, that is mass deportations.
Backed by as much as $175 billion in new funding, the administration is building what officials describe as a tech-powered, private-sector-driven “deportation machine.”
The scale of disruption is measurable, and far more significant than most political rhetoric suggests.
How much labor does the US actually stand to lose?
According to a report by Baker Institute, the US is home to an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants. Around 8 million of them are working. They make up 3.3% of the population and nearly one-fifth of the foreign-born labour force.
Those numbers may seem modest at the national level, but their concentration in key industries is what makes them economically significant.
Agriculture is the most exposed. Over 41% of all farm workers are undocumented. In the broader food supply chain, roughly 1.7 million workers fall into this group. On an absolute basis, the construction sector is the largest employer of undocumented workers, making up 14%, according to a recent report by Oxford Economics.
In states like California and Texas, immigrants make up 40% of the construction workforce. Across the country, 14.2% of construction workers are undocumented.
Manufacturing employs another 870,000 undocumented immigrants. Hospitality holds around 1 million. Transportation and warehousing add 461,000 more. These numbers are not easily replaced.
The US is already facing labour shortages. In 2023, there were 3.2 million job openings the market could not fill.
As fertility rates drop and the population ages, immigration has been the main force sustaining labour supply. Deporting a sizable chunk of the undocumented workforce would reverse that trend.
Can businesses adjust, or would prices spike?
Not every industry can simply raise wages and move on. Some operate on thin margins. Some face global competition.
In agriculture, for instance, wages make up a large share of costs, and productivity gains are slow. Prices at the supermarket would go up, and output may shrink as producers scale back.
Construction faces a different but equally serious challenge. Replacing workers takes time. Laborers may be less skilled than subcontractors, but they are essential.
Wage growth in construction already outpaces the broader economy. Hourly earnings rose 4.4% in Q4 2024, a full percentage point above pre-COVID averages.
Oxford Economics estimates that deporting half of the undocumented construction workforce would cut sector growth in half through 2028.
That means over $55 billion in lost output. Efforts to replace labour with automation won’t work fast enough. Construction has seen some of the lowest productivity growth in the economy for decades.
What about the bigger picture: GDP, inflation, and taxes?
Studies project that mass deportations could reduce GDP by 2.6% to 6.2% over the next decade. That is a staggering figure in an economy of over $27 trillion.
The pressure would also show up in prices. A 9.1% increase in the general price level by 2028 is one projection tied directly to widespread deportation efforts.
Over their lifetime, they contribute $237,000 more in taxes than they receive in benefits. Removing this group shrinks the tax base and pushes up deficits.
Even for US-born workers, there’s little to gain. Past deportation waves did not lead to higher wages. In fact, removing 500,000 immigrants from the labor force could cost native-born workers 44,000 jobs. Fewer workers means less demand across the economy.
Can the deportation machine actually scale?
ICE deported about 271,000 people in FY 2024. In March 2025, monthly deportations dropped to 18,500. That’s well below the target of 1 million per year. So the bottleneck is not policy; it’s capacity.
ICE employs roughly 5,500 field agents. Its planes can carry only about 135 deportees per flight. Its daily detention limit is around 49,000 people.
Tent facilities from the Biden era are being repurposed into jails. Funding is being requested to hold over 100,000 people at once.
The private sector is being brought in at scale. According to federal contracts, Palantir received a $30 million contract upgrade to supply ICE with AI-powered targeting and enforcement tools.
Officials are looking to manage deportations with logistics platforms, drawing comparisons to Amazon Prime.
Apparently, “deportation-as-a-service is not just a slogan. It is an operational model in the works.
Many of these transfers come from undocumented workers in the US. Deportations would cut off that stream.
The Mexican government has responded with programs to support returning migrants, but resources are limited. Cuts to consulate budgets and immigration offices raise doubts about implementation.
Trump’s tariff threat further complicates matters. A 25% tax on all Mexican imports could slow trade and push Mexico toward a recession. That, in turn, could drive more people to attempt migration north.
The irony is hard to miss. An economic crackdown on immigration may well fuel the very patterns it aims to stop.
Where does this leave the US economy?
If the goal of mass deportation is to restore jobs and wages for US citizens, the evidence doesn’t support it.
Most undocumented immigrants work in jobs Americans have long avoided. Their removal wouldn’t fill gaps but it would rather widen them.
Labour-intensive industries would shrink. Prices would climb. Housing projects would stall. Tax revenues would fall. The logistics of deporting millions are expensive, slow, and disruptive.
A more economically sound approach would be to fix the visa system, expand legal pathways, and recognize the long-term contribution of workers already here.
For now, the US is heading toward a test of whether it can forcibly reshape its economy without breaking it.
The test is whether the economic engine can keep running with fewer hands on deck. That’s what the current administration is betting on.
Shares of Wipro Ltd dropped as much as 6.3% on Thursday after the IT services firm issued a disappointing revenue forecast for the June quarter, raising concerns of a third consecutive year of decline amid persistent global tech spending cuts.
India’s fourth-largest IT exporter said on Wednesday it expects revenue in the April-June period to fall between 1.5% and 3.5% sequentially, with new Chief Executive Srini Pallia warning that “uncertainties have dramatically increased” going into the new fiscal year.
The guidance, analysts said, marks a worrisome start for fiscal 2026 and signals continued headwinds despite a leadership change.
Pallia, who took over in April 2024 following the abrupt exit of Thierry Delaporte, inherits a company grappling with a string of weak quarters, stalled large deals, talent attrition, and market share erosion.
Wipro shares were down 5% as of 11:51 am IST on Thursday, extending their year-to-date decline to 22.4%.
While that is marginally better than the broader Nifty IT index’s 24.8% fall, it underscores growing investor scepticism about the firm’s prospects.
Analysts warn of a third year of revenue contraction
Brokerages were quick to flag that Wipro’s first-quarter guidance could derail any early hopes of a recovery.
“The first quarter guidance sets the stage for another challenging year following two years of revenue decline,” analysts at Phillip Capital said in a note.
Several firms—including Nomura, Nuvama, Emkay, and ICICI Securities—trimmed their FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates, citing elevated macroeconomic uncertainty, slowing transformation project spends, and the lingering impact of geopolitical tensions and tariffs, particularly in key markets like the United States.
Nomura cut its FY26 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 2–4% and revised the target price to ₹280 from ₹300.
It maintained a Buy rating, citing improved shareholder return policies, but warned that its earnings projections remain 8–9% below Bloomberg consensus.
Nuvama downgraded the stock to Hold and reduced its price target to ₹260, stating that Wipro’s weak first-quarter guidance jeopardizes the turnaround thesis.
The brokerage lowered its FY26/27 EPS estimates by up to 3.7%.
Muted forecast triggers widespread downgrades
At least nine out of the 39 analysts covering the stock have downgraded their ratings, while 20 have cut their price targets, according to LSEG data.
The average analyst rating remains at “Hold”, but the median target price has declined by nearly 14% to ₹250 over the past month.
Emkay Global said the company’s Q1 outlook factors in both potential demand recovery and further weakness.
It maintained a “Reduce” rating with a ₹260 target, highlighting low near-term visibility despite a strong deal pipeline.
ICICI Securities termed the March quarter’s performance “abysmal,” citing weak revenues and macro concerns—especially in discretionary-heavy sectors like auto and manufacturing.
The firm said the lone bright spot was the total contract value (TCV) from two large deal wins, but added that Wipro’s key challenge lies in translating orders into revenues and stabilising its European operations.
Brokerages remain cautious as growth triggers remain elusive
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) cut its FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by around 4%, anticipating a 1.9% YoY revenue decline in constant currency terms.
The brokerage retained its Sell rating with a target price of ₹215, implying a valuation of 17 times FY27 earnings.
Though some brokerages note positives such as improved capital allocation policies and a projected FY27 dividend yield of 4%, consensus suggests that the near-term outlook remains grim with little to spark a re-rating in the stock.
