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The USD/CNY exchange rate retreated from the year-to-date high of 7.3500 on April 10 to a low of 7.20 as traders focused on the trade relations between China and the United States. 

US and China trade relations

The US and China have been on a conflict since Donald Trump became president. One of his first actions was to add tariffs on Chinese goods, a move that he believes will help to reduce the trade deficit between the two countries.

The crisis escalated on the so-called “Liberation Day”, when he imposed 34% tariffs on Chinese goods. In the aftermath, the conflict escalated and tariffs surged to 145%, while China brought its levies to 125%.

These concerns waned in May after US and Chinese officials met in Switzerland and decided to cool things down. They reduced tariffs on each other and agreed to reset the relationship.

Recently, however, there are signs that the crisis is escalating again, as the Trump administration has made unilateral decisions. It has announced export controls on key sectors, including aviation. And Marco Rubio plans to expel thousands of Chinese students from the US. 

All these issues are having an impact on both economies. Data released on Saturday showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 49 in April to 49.5 in May, while the non-manufacturing figure fell from 50.4 to 50.3. 

However, there are signs that the Chinese economy will do well over time as it focuses on doing business with other countries. Also, China is adapting well to technology curbs, with companies like Huawei building high-quality chips.

USD to CNY key data to watch this week

There will be several important macro data from the United States and China this week. The first one will come out on Tuesday, when Caixin will publish the latest manufacturing PMI data.

S&P Global and the ISM will release their US manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday. These numbers will provide more color on the state of the American economy as tariffs continue. 

The most important data will be related to the US labor market. Analysts expect the data to show that the US economy created 110,000 jobs in May, a big jump from the previous month’s 62,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Analysts expect the data to reveal that the economy added 130k jobs, down from 177k in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

USD/CNY technical analysis

USD/CNY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to CNY exchange rate has remained under pressure in the past few weeks. It formed a double-top pattern at 7.3318, and has now moved below the neckline at 7.2185. 

The pair has also formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed each other. Therefore, it will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at 7.1200.

The post USD/CNY forecast: China renminbi to surge as death cross forms appeared first on Invezz

The USD/CAD exchange rate has crashed this year as the US dollar index (DXY) has plunged from $110 earlier this year to $99. It has dropped from 1.4790 on February 3 to the current 1.3738. 

Canadian economy at risk amid Trump steel tariffs

The USD/CAD pair retreated on Friday as investors remained concerned about the trade relations between the US and Canada. 

These relations could worsen this month after Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. These tariffs will now rise from the current 25% to 50% as he seeks to cushion American steel workers. 

Analysts believe that the Chinese economy could be the most exposed as the country is the biggest supplier of the two metals to the US. Canada accounts for about a quarter of all US steel tariffs and about half of aluminium. 

These tariffs will have a major impact on the Canadian economy. The steel sector employs over 23,000 Canadians directly and 100,000 indirectly, while the aluminum sector employs thousands more. 

Analysts anticipate that the Canadian economy will be affected this year. Data released last week showed that the economy expanded by 2.2% in the first quarter as exporters sought to get ahead of tariffs. 

In a recent note, analysts at the IMF downgraded the Canadian economic forecast. It downgraded the economy by 0.6% this year and 0.4% in 2026, citing the impact of tariffs. It expects the economy to grow by 1.4% and 1.6% in these two years.

Bank of Canada and Fed divergence

The USD/CAD exchange rate has reacted to the ongoing divergence between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. 

The BoC has been in a rate-cutting cycle in the past few months, moving them from 5.5% to 2.75%. It paused the rate cut in May, and the recent strong GDP number means that it may pause again in June. 

The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has maintained status quo this year despite rising pressure from Trump to cut rates. Trump made the case for cuts directly to Jerome Powell in a meeting at the White House last week.

The Fed has insisted that it will not cut rates until it sees that inflation is falling towards the 2% target. While recent data showed that inflation has fallen, Fed officials expect tariffs to push inflation higher. 

Looking ahead, the next important catalyst for the USD/CAD pair will be the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. It will also react to any trade development between the US and Canada.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USDCAD chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/CAD exchange rate has pulled back from the year-to-date high of 1.4790 to 1.3738. It has recently crashed below the key support at 1.4148, the lowest swing on February 15.

The pair has even formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. It has moved below the support at 1.3756, the lowest swing on May 7, and a level where it formed a double-bottom pattern. 

Therefore, the USD/CAD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next support at 1.3600. 

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Bitcoin price performed strongly in May, jumping to a record high of $111,900. At its highest point, it was up by over 50% from its lowest point in April, when Donald Trump unveiled his retaliatory tariffs. This BTC forecast looks at what to expect in June.

Bitcoin recap for May

May was a good month for Bitcoin in a few areas. First, Wall Street investors continued to pump money into BTC during the month. The net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs jumped by over $5.2 billion, while the total value traded during the month jumped to over $73 billion. 

May was Bitcoin’s best month since January, when the net inflows jumped by $5.25 billion. The surge in inflows brought the cumulative inflows to over $45 billion, making Bitcoin the most successful ETF launches ever.

For example, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) now has over $70 billion in assets under management, 18 months after its launch. In contrast, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has less than $100 billion in assets, 21 years since its launch. 

The other big theme in May was the continued Bitcoin purchases by companies, a move that could accelerate following Strategy’s purchases. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired thousands of coins, bringing its total holdings to over 580,235. 

Twenty One, a company formed between Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and Softbank, is acquiring Bitcoins worth over $3 billion. It plans to go public as a Bitcoin holding company. 

Trump Media, the parent company of TruthSocial, raised $2.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin. GameStop, the game store company, also started to accumulate Bitcoin as we recommended a few months ago.

The other big Bitcoin news in May was key events like Consensus Toronto and Token2049 in Dubai. 

BTC price analysis for June

Bitcoin’s price will likely continue doing well in June because of the soaring demand and falling supply. The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has continued falling, moving from over 3.1 million in 2020 to 1.2 million today. 

More companies will likely continue acquiring Bitcoins this month, which will help boost its price.

The risk, however, is that June is usually one of the worst months for Bitcoin because of the start of the summer season. The average Bitcoin return in June is usually minus 0.50%. 

The other risk is that the trade war between the US and other countries will continue, leading to more volatility. Also, the Federal Reserve may insist that it will not cut rates soon as inflation remains stubbornly high.

Bitcoin price analysis

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

Technicals suggest that the BTC price has more upside to go this month as it has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, with the ongoing retreat being part of the handle section. This cup has a depth of about 32%, meaning that the target price is about $143,000.

Bitcoin remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the most likely scenario is where BTC price rises and hits at least $120,000 this month. A drop below the support at $100,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

The post Bitcoin price prediction for June: Will BTC rise or fall in June? appeared first on Invezz

While there is still over a month to go before we reach the halfway mark, it has already been an eventful year for financial markets.

President Trump can take credit/blame for a significantly large proportion of this eventfulness.

He has been active on the international stage, having been directly involved in efforts to force a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, as well as inserting his administration in the ongoing tragedy of the near-East. 

So far, so awful. His team is currently involved in negotiations with Tehran, and most of the world must hope for a better outcome here, and the quashing of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Mr Trump has also been busy back home.

His tax bill squeaked through the House of Representatives.

The Senate is next, and many are hoping that it will pass, possibly giving the US economy a lift through a mixture of (diluted) tax and spending cuts, despite adding significantly to the national debt. 

Of course, it is President Trump’s tariffs on US imports which have been the market’s chief focus.

The uncertainty caused by tariffs, and the mercurial manner in which they are dished out, has induced terrible conniptions amongst investors.

The tariffs have given the US Federal Reserve the perfect excuse to hold off from further rate cuts (having sliced 100 basis points off the Fed Funds rate over the last four months of 2024) while providing cover for Moody’s to cut the US’s credit rating.

Moody’s has looked rather exposed ever since Fitch downgraded the US in August 2023, joining S&P who beat them both, and caused much more of a ruckus, when it cut the US back in 2011.

It looks as if several major markets are now at an inflexion point, consolidating after recent moves while offering few clues concerning where they may go next. US stock indices feel as if they want to keep the rally going.

But they have already come a long way off their April lows, following their immediate negative reaction to Trump’s initial tariff announcement on 2nd April. 

As the May month-end approaches, the US majors continue to look overbought, according to their respective daily MACDs.

That could mean that they sell off from here. But their MACDs could also correct through a protracted period of consolidation.

Gold was significantly overbought in mid-April when it hit an all-time high of $3,500.

Since then, the price has pulled back, and the daily MACD has dropped down to more neutral levels. Silver has been stuck in a relatively narrow $1.50 range since mid-April.

Support has held around $32 per ounce, while resistance has capped the upside at $33.50.

Silver’s daily MACD has tracked sideways, again around neutral levels. Gold has made a series of record highs after finally breaking conclusively above $2,000 in early 2024. 

Yet silver remains significantly short of its own all-time high around $50 from April 2011.

Both have the potential for big moves as we push into the summer and beyond. The only problem is working out in which direction.

Crude oil has been in a strong downward trend since it topped out in March 2022 in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It also appears to be trapped in a range with its own daily MACD back at neutral levels. Oil has consistently run into resistance on every rally attempt. But for how much longer? 

Hyman Minsky wrote that ‘stability breeds instability’. But sometimes markets need a catalyst to kickstart a big move.

It could be that the trigger is tariff-related. Or it could be one of Donald Rumsfeld’s ‘unknown unknowns’. Whatever it may be, don’t be surprised to see an uptick in volatility in the near-future.

(David Morrison is a Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation. Views are his own.)

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Adobe stock price has underperformed the broader market and other companies in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry like Microsoft, ServiceNow, and Salesforce. It has dropped by over 35% from its highest point last year as concerns about competition and impact of artificial intelligence (AI) remain. 

Competition, AI, and growth concerns

The Adobe share price has come under pressure in the past few months as the company faces a mountain of challenges.

Its biggest challenge is competition from companies like Canva and Figma, which have become multibillion-dollar firms. Canva has a valuation of almost $50 billion, while the recent fundraising placed Figma’s valuation at over $12 billion.

These firms have become big names because of their investments in easy-to-use solutions, emphasis on collaboration, and artificial intelligence services. 

Adobe stock price has also dropped as AI tools disrupt some of its solutions. While the company has invested in AI tools, investors are yet to see the impact in terms of revenue and profitability. 

Analysts and investors are concerned about the impact of AI on some of its services like Photoshop and Dreamweaver. Dreamweaver, which simplifies the website design process, is being disrupted by AI tools like ChatGPT and Grok that can build a website from scratch after a few prompts.

Adobe stock price has also underperformed because of an FTC lawsuit that alleges the company hid fees and prevented customers from cancelling its software easily. 

Further, there are concerns about Adobe’s growth. Its last annual revenue rose to $21.5 billion, up from $19.4 billion.

The most recent numbers showed that Adobe’s revenue rose by 10% in the first quarter to $5.71 billion. Its operating income rose to $2.16 billion, while its cash flow from operations rose to $2.48 billion.

Most of Adobe’s revenue came from the digital media segment, which made $4.23 billion. This business includes the Creative Cloud and Document Cloud businesses, including services like InDesign, Illustrator, and Photoshop. 

The digital experience business includes services like Marketo, Adobe Target, , Journey Optimizier, and Adobe Campaign. 

Read more: Adobe stock price triangle pattern points to big moves ahead

ADBE earnings and valuation

The next key catalyst for the Adobe stock price will be its earnings, which will come out in June. 

Wall Street analysts anticipate that the revenue rose by 9.2% in the first quarter to $5.8 billion. The most optimistic analyst sees its revenue coming in at almost $6 billion.

Analysts also expect that its second-quarter revenue will be $5.8 billion, a 8.65% increase. The annual revenue is expected to be $23.46 billion and $25.72 billion, respectively. 

Analysts also believe that Adobe stock price is cheap. The average stock forecast is $488, up from the current $380. 

It has a net income and a free cash flow margin of 30% and 37%, and an annual growth rate of about 10%. This gives it a rule of 40 metric in the range of 40% and 47%, making it fairly valued. 

Adobe stock price analysis

ADBE chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the ADBE share price bottomed at $332.98 in April and then bounced back to over $400 today. It has moved above the upper side of the descending channel.

The stock has formed a bullish flag pattern and moved above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The most likely scenario is where the Adobe share price rebounds and hits the psychological point at $500, up by 20% from the current level.

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Sunrun Inc (NASDAQ: RUN) has been a major disappointment for investors in recent weeks, but a senior analyst at UBS remains convinced that the ongoing sell-off in this solar stock has gone a bit too far.

According to Jon Windham, Sunrun’s stock price crash has created an opportunity to load up on a clean energy name that could weather the risks associated with President Trump’s new budget bill.

Note that Sunrun stock, despite the aforementioned hit, remains up some 30% versus its YTD low.

UBS sees upside in Sunrun stock to $12

Windham reiterated his “buy” rating on Sunrun shares this morning but lowered the price target to $12 to reflect a sector headwind linked to the House passing the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” last week.

Investors have been bailing on clean energy stocks under the Trump administration this year as its new budget bill proposes removing significant tax credits for solar companies by the end of 2025.

These investment tax credits under the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentivized homeowners to install solar panels in pursuit of lower electricity costs.

That’s why the Invesco Solar ETF has lost a little under 15% year-to-date.

However, RUN shares could still navigate this storm and soar up to 75% from here, said the UBS analyst in his latest note to clients.

How may RUN shares navigate the new budget bill?

In his report, Jon Windham said his downwardly revised price target on Sunrun stock reflects the potential risk of the White House removing all federal tax credits for residential solar.

However, he maintained a positive view on the stock, noting that Sunrun could mitigate the impact of such regulatory headwinds through state-level incentives and expansion into other segments, including commercial, industrial, and community solar markets.

Additionally, Sunrun Inc could adjust its Power Purchase Agreements as well to better adapt to the regulatory shift, the UBS analyst argued in his research note.

Note that RUN shares do not pay a dividend at the time of writing.

Sunrun reported strong financials for its Q1

Windham also signalled the possibility of the US Senate reversing its stance on the aforementioned bill in his report as well.

He’s positive on RUN shares on the company’s “underlying $2.6 billion portfolio of contracted net earning assets.”

Moreover, the analyst also sees “potential upside scenarios beyond the US budget bill”.

Sunrun stock may be worth owning for continued strength in its financials.

Earlier in May, the Nasdaq-listed firm reported $504 million in revenue and earnings of 20 cents per share for its fiscal first quarter.

That handily beat analyst expectations, which had projected around $494 million in revenue and a loss of 22 cents per share for the clean energy firm.

That’s why the consensus rating on RUN remains an “overweight” at writing.

The post Looking for 75% return within a year? Buy this solar stock today appeared first on Invezz

Intel has announced plans to lower its global headcount by more than 20% under the leadership of Lip-Bu Tan, who has been at the helm for a couple of months only.

In its latest reported quarter, the semiconductor giant came in ahead of Street estimates on both the top and bottom line as well. Still, Intel stock remains in shambles.

And it may continue to struggle until the company’s new chief executive announces a big change that markets have been anticipating for a while now, said Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland in a recent CNBC interview.

Intel stock could benefit from a breakup

According to Christopher Rolland, Intel is “dead money in its current strategic form.”

However, a potential split of its business – a strategic move that separates its manufacturing unit from production divisions could unlock significant value for shareholders, the analyst argued.

Rolland sees it as a “viable path forward” for Intel, particularly because the Trump administration has been fully committed to onshoring production this year.

Top it off with the firm’s 18A process node that’s gaining traction lately, and you have yourself a semiconductor stock that “may have a chance” in keeping relevant in an increasingly AI-centred global market, according to the Susquehanna analyst.

Note that Intel stock currently pays a dividend yield of 2.57%, which makes it a bit more attractive to own in 2025.

18A success could save INTC shares in 2025

Intel’s aforementioned manufacturing process is reportedly facing initial challenges but has started gaining interest from a number of tech companies.  

There have been rumours of potential large-scale foundry deals with companies like Microsoft, and talks are also underway with Google.

Intel is aiming for high-volume production in the second half of 2025. Provided that it successfully delivers on that commitment, hyperscalers could increasingly turn to INTC, given the federal push to manufacturing in the US.

This may help remove a major overhang from Intel shares – the lack of a big customer. Note that the semiconductor stock is currently down some 30% versus its year-to-date high.

Is it worth investing in Intel this year?

Until Intel announces the separation of its two core businesses and ramps up its 18A process, however, INTC stock is much like “dead money”, as per the Susquehanna analyst.

Christopher Rolland currently has a “neutral” rating on Intel shares also because the likes of AMD are stealing its market share, and the signs of a pick-up in PC demand the company talked about on its Q1 earnings call may only have been a pull forward due to tariffs.   

Other Wall Street analysts agree with Rolland’s neutral rating on Intel stock as well. However, the mean target of about $24 still indicates potential upside of more than 20% from here.  

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German stocks have been on a tear in 2025, vastly outperforming both their European peers and U.S. counterparts.

The DAX index, Germany’s flagship benchmark, is up over 20% year-to-date, outshining the broader Stoxx 600, which has posted a more modest 8% gain.

In stark contrast, the S&P 500 in the U.S. has been hovering just above flatline for the year, underlining the scale of outperformance coming out of Europe’s largest economy.

Leading the charge in Germany is defense company Rheinmetall, which has seen its stock soar more than 200% amid a spike in defense spending by the German government.

The rally is not isolated to defense: industrials, utilities, and even segments exposed to artificial intelligence have all contributed to the market’s strength.

Why are German stocks flying high in 2025?

According to Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist at Nuveen, a major catalyst has been Germany’s aggressive fiscal stimulus, announced in March.

Speaking with CNBC, she noted that investors have been pricing in both defense and infrastructure spending, which has fueled the DAX’s double-digit surge.

“It’s quite remarkable to see the significant double-digit gains in the German DAX,” Cooper said in the interview, adding “this is largely based on that game-changing fiscal stimulus … tilted more towards those defense stocks.”

The DAX’s sector composition has also helped it outperform. Its heavy allocation to industrials and utilities aligns well with the current macro backdrop, especially as infrastructure upgrades and AI applications gather momentum globally.

Cooper also pointed to artificial intelligence as a growing tailwind for these sectors, particularly as Europe ramps up digitization.

Is it time to take profit in German stocks?

With such sharp gains in a short span, investors are beginning to question whether now is the time to lock in profits.

While Cooper doesn’t advocate exiting the market entirely, she does warn of stretched valuations, especially in defense.

“I don’t think necessarily this is a time for profit-taking,” she told CNBC in an interview today. “But we are going to see valuations come back into focus. The German DAX is trading at about 15 or 16 times its earnings, and that is stretched on a historical basis,” Cooper added.

Rather than selling out, Cooper suggests broadening exposure within Europe and perhaps even revisiting US equities, where strong tech earnings are starting to reawaken investor interest. The European rally may continue, she said, but gains are likely to be “more tepid” from here.

Investors should remain cautious, balancing optimism with prudent risk management as market dynamics continue to evolve.

Staying diversified and closely monitoring valuation shifts will be key to navigating this evolving landscape successfully.

In short, German stocks may still have room to run—but the easy money might already be behind us.

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Gap Inc (NYSE: GAP) shares plunged some 20% on Friday, rattled by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on profit margins.

However, according to Matt Boss, a retail analyst at JPMorgan and an Extel Analyst Hall of Famer, the market is overreacting—and there’s a compelling case to buy the dip in Gap stock.

Why did Gap shares fall?

Today’s selloff in GAP shares was triggered by investor fears over an estimated $150 million in incremental tariffs hitting Gap and its brands like Old Navy.

This tariff burden has been factored into the stock price at a low double-digit multiple, equating to roughly $5 to $6 in equity value removed from the shares, Boss explained.

Despite these concerns, Gap reported solid fundamentals in its latest quarterly results, with same-store sales up mid-single digits at core Gap and low single digits at Old Navy.

The company also outlined an expected 8% to 10% multi-year bottom-line growth driven by steady sales gains.

Where the market is wrong

Matt Boss emphasized that tariffs are far from a new issue for Gap stock and its retail peers, many of whom have been aggressively reducing their exposure to China, traditionally a major source of tariff risk.

“Gap will exit this year with only 3% of its sourcing coming from China,” the JPM analyst revealed in a CNBC interview today, adding “on average, our group has a high single-digit China impact today, down from 20% in 2019.”

Retailers are mitigating tariff pressure through diversified sourcing, strategic pricing adjustments, and operational efficiencies.

Some companies are cautiously implementing low to mid-single-digit price increases, while others are waiting to see the final tariff rates before passing costs onto consumers.

JPMorgan sees opportunity

Despite recent volatility, Boss remains optimistic on Gap’s turnaround story and rates the stock as overweight.

He believes fair value lies in the mid-$30s for GAP shares, well above current prices, contingent on management’s execution of its plan.

Pullbacks like the recent selloff, he said, create compelling buying opportunities for investors willing to look beyond short-term tariff noise.

While tariffs have rattled the market, the fundamental outlook for Gap stock and other well-managed retailers remains intact.

As Matt Boss notes, investors should see the recent selloff in GAP not as a warning sign but as a buying opportunity in a sector undergoing selective, durable recovery.

Other Wall Street analysts agree with JPM’s view on GAP shares as well, given the consensus rating on the multinational clothing and accessories retailer currently sits at “overweight”.

Analysts have an average price target of a little over $27 on Gap Inc, which indicates potential for a more than 20% upside from current levels.

The post Analyst explains why ‘market is wrong’ in selling Gap stock on tariff warning appeared first on Invezz

U.S. equities may be poised for a significant rally in the second half of 2025, according to Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities.

Despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty, Harvey believes that much of the tariff risk is already priced into the market – perhaps even overstated – and that economic fundamentals remain resilient.

Wells Fargo still sees S&P 500 surpassing 7,000 level by year end

Speaking with CNBC, Harvey reiterated his bold year-end S&P 500 target of 7,070, the highest on Wall Street. This implies an upside of nearly 20% from current levels.

The Wells Fargo analyst sees recent market volatility as part of a broader constructive trend.

“We’re making progress on trade and tariff. We’ll continue to make progress,” he noted in the said interview, adding “we’ll take a step back every once in a while, but Trump administration appears intent on pushing the ball forward.”

One of the key factors supporting Harvey’s optimism is the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates.

He pointed to recent comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who suggested that if tariffs remain in the 10% range, the Fed could justify cutting interest rates to offset the drag on growth.

According to the Wells Fargo equity strategist, “that’s where we think tariffs end up, around 10-12%. We’re getting more comfortable with that belief.”

Tariff revenue could help the US narrow its fiscal deficit

Harvey sees modest tariffs in the aforementioned range distributing costs relatively evenly among importers, corporations, and consumers, with limited economic disruption.

Meanwhile, the revenue generated could help narrow the fiscal deficit. “That’s a real positive, a real constructive thing,” he said, underscoring the potential for increased government revenue to become a stabilizing force.

Beyond China, the Wells Fargo strategist believes trade deals with other key economies like India, Japan, and the European Union may carry even more strategic importance.

We’re in the process of disintermediating China. We’re telling our allies: if you want to benefit from this shift, play ball with us.

He pointed to earnings calls where companies are increasingly citing efforts to reduce exposure to China by relocating supply chains and diversifying manufacturing bases.

This, according to Chris Harvey, indicates that the US strategy is gaining traction and could support broader economic resilience.

What could offset Wells Fargo’s bullish view on US stocks?

On the flip side, Harvey warned that uncertainty remains the biggest risk to his forecast. If there is not enough clarity on trade by mid-summer, it could begin to weigh on corporate confidence and hiring.

If we’re here in June or July and still saying, ‘We’re not sure,’ then people may start resizing their workforce. That’s when things could start to fall apart.

Even so, the strategist remains bullish that by July, the market could shift its focus to pro-growth themes such as potential tax cuts and fiscal stimulus.

If significant trade progress is achieved, with deals involving India or Japan, for example, investors may begin to look past temporary economic softness and toward a more optimistic 2026.

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