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US President Donald Trump raised eyebrows last week when he singled out Australian beef while announcing tariffs on a broad range of imports.

“They won’t take any of our beef,” Trump said, referring to Australia’s long-standing restrictions on US beef imports due to concerns over mad cow disease.

These restrictions have effectively halted almost all US beef shipments to Australia for over two decades.

I don’t blame them. But we’re doing the same thing right now, starting at midnight tonight.

Paradoxically, Australia’s beef industry is expressing relief, as Trump’s 10% tariff on Australian products appears insufficient to significantly impact its booming exports to the United States, which have been averaging a record $275 million a month in the six months to February, according to industry insiders.

China’s retaliation: a golden opportunity for Australian beef

More significantly, tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by China, combined with Beijing’s decision not to renew the local registration of hundreds of US meat facilities, are threatening US beef exports to China, a market worth around $125 million a month.

This presents Australia, along with competitors like Brazil, Argentina, and New Zealand, with a prime opportunity to increase their shipments to the lucrative Chinese market.

“I’m not too stressed by 10%,” Andrew McDonald, whose Bindaree Food Group operates meat processing facilities in Australia and ships beef to the United States, told Reuters.

McDonald noted that the tariff announcement has actually rekindled interest in Australian beef from US buyers who had temporarily paused orders while awaiting clarity on Trump’s trade policies.

He also added that demand for Australian beef in China was on the rise.

“It’s a good outcome for Australia,” McDonald concluded.

Quarter pounder relief: tariffs unlikely to dent demand

US beef imports are currently at elevated levels due to years of dry weather that have reduced cattle numbers to their lowest levels since the 1950s, shrinking domestic production and driving up local prices.

Analysts anticipate that it will take several years for domestic production to recover.

Australia, on the other hand, is flush with beef supply thanks to favorable wet weather, making it the largest shipper to the US, offering both lower prices and lean cuts that the US lacks.

Rabobank analyst Angus Gidley-Baird explained that imported Australian lean trim beef in the US was priced around $3.12 a pound (or almost half a kilogram) before the tariff.

The tariff increased that price to $3.43 a pound, which is still significantly lower than the local product, priced around $3.80, he said, adding that the tariff adds just 2.5 cents to the cost of a quarter-pounder made partly from Australian beef.

A softer Australian dollar provides further cushion

While the tariff costs are likely to be shared across the supply chain, a sharp decline in the Australian dollar versus the US dollar provides Australian producers with an additional cushion, according to analysts.

A weaker currency incentivizes US buyers to increase purchases while simultaneously increasing the local currency earnings for Australian sellers for each US dollar they receive.

Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski pointed out that the only other major beef exporters not subject to US tariffs are Canada and Mexico, but their capacity to significantly increase shipments in the short term is limited.

Finally, China is the only major buyer of US beef to have retaliated to Trump’s tariffs.

China is the third-largest importer of US beef after South Korea and Japan, with the United States accounting for 10% of its beef imports by value.

The post Trump’s beef backfires? Aussie exporters may actually win from trade war appeared first on Invezz

In a coordinated effort to shore up investor confidence, top Chinese brokerages have pledged to help stabilize domestic share prices, the Shanghai bourse announced.

This pledge comes as scores of listed companies unveiled plans to buy back their own stock, a response to the escalating trade war that has sent shockwaves through the local market.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) revealed late on Tuesday that it convened a meeting with 10 leading brokerages to emphasize the critical importance of stabilizing markets in the face of external shocks.

The SSE stated that participating firms, including Citic Securities, Orient Securities, and Industrial Securities, expressed optimism about China’s long-term growth prospects and vowed to actively work to steady the market, a clear signal of support for government efforts.

America’s 104% hit on Chinese goods

The United States said that 104% duties on imports from China will take effect shortly after midnight, intensifying trade tensions that have already roiled global markets and smacked Chinese shares, underlining the immediate threat to the Chinese economy.

The brokerage gathering represents an acceleration of efforts by Chinese authorities to try and limit the damage from the trade war.

This follows earlier vows from Central Huijin, the government wealth fund, to increase their stock holdings to provide further market support.

Adding to the effort, more than 100 Chinese listed companies have published announcements regarding share purchases or buybacks, seeking to bolster confidence in a market that has slumped to six-month lows this week, creating further worry for investors.

Construction machinery maker Sanyi Heavy Industry Co stated that it repurchased 5 million shares worth 92.9 million yuan ($12.64 million) through the public market on Tuesday, demonstrating concrete action.

Also Read | Which US sectors are most at risk from China’s new tariffs?

Similarly, XCMG Construction Machinery announced plans to buy back the company’s shares worth up to 3.6 billion yuan, underscoring the scale of corporate efforts to stabilize share prices.

More than 20 listed companies controlled by the central government also unveiled buyback plans under the guidance of China’s state asset regulator, signaling a unified response from the government and state-owned enterprises.

This group includes prominent oil companies PetroChina and Sinopec, as well as power generators such as China Shenhua Energy Co and GD Power Development, highlighting the broad scope of the buyback initiatives.

The post China responds to Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs with brokerage pledges, buyback plans appeared first on Invezz

The global luxury industry is bracing for its longest downturn in more than two decades, as Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs fuel concerns of a worldwide recession.

Hopes that affluent Americans might prop up the struggling sector are fading, with Wall Street analysts warning of sliding sales and profits across the $400-billion-a-year industry.

European countries, home to the majority of luxury brands, face a 20% tariff on exports to the US.

Goods from the United Kingdom and Switzerland have been hit with 10% and 31% tariffs respectively, sending shockwaves through boardrooms from Paris to Geneva.

Bernstein analyst Luca Solca has sharply downgraded his forecast for global luxury sales, predicting a 2% decline this year instead of the previously expected 5% growth.

If realised, this would mark the sector’s most prolonged slump since the early 2000s.

“Uncertainty, and the likely continuing rout in stock markets, are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy: a global recession,” Solca warned in a note to clients.

Affluent consumers tighten purse strings as markets tumble

While the new tariffs will raise costs for imported luxury goods in the US, the larger threat is the potential for a severe global downturn and sharp corrections in financial markets.

High-net-worth consumers are typically more insulated from recessions, but sustained losses in their investment portfolios could see them cut back on discretionary spending.

Solca now expects the sector’s average earnings before interest and taxes to fall by between 4% and 6% compared to 2024 levels.

However, luxury brands may be better positioned than mass-market companies to manage the tariff shock.

Most luxury houses manufacture in Europe rather than Asia, and they have long navigated export levies to the US.

Some industry insiders believe the incremental cost could be manageable.

Even if the new tariffs are stacked on top of existing duties, the impact on pricing could be relatively minor.

Since tariffs are applied to the wholesale price—generally around 20% of the retail price—brands could offset the increases by raising prices by less than 4%, according to Solca.

This is lower than the usual 5% to 7% annual price hikes many luxury brands have implemented in recent years.

Why Richemont and Hermes stand out

Among the luxury sector, Cartier-owner Richemont and French luxury giant Hermes are standing out as stocks with potential to weather the storm well, analysts say, owing to their strong brand equity and pricing power.

Oliver Chen, an analyst at TD Cowen said his top pick in the luxury sector is Swiss conglomerate Compagnie Financière Richemont, the owner of Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Montblanc.

Chen said jewellery could prove to be a more resilient category in the near term, and highlighted that Cartier and Van Cleef have not raised prices as aggressively as other luxury brands over the past two years, preserving a “strong price-to-value proposition.”

That restraint could create room for price increases down the line.

Richemont shares, listed on the Swiss stock exchange, have dropped by more than 12% in the last five days.

Citi’s Thomas Chauvet also backs Richemont, citing its pure-play focus on luxury as a strength that should support pricing power.

He similarly recommends Hermès, pointing out that the brand benefits from lower exposure to US sales compared to other luxury peers.

Hermès shares remain expensive, however, trading at 46.7 times projected earnings for the next 12 months.

Richemont, by contrast, trades at a more modest 20.4 times. Both stocks, though, are trading below their respective five-year averages of 50 for Hermès and 23.8 for Richemont.

Jefferies analysts believe Hermès is well-positioned to outperform its peers, thanks in part to its superior pricing power.

In a research note, they describe the French luxury house as a relative safe haven amid a tougher environment for the sector, with demand softening in the critical US market since mid-February and uncertainties over Trump’s proposed tariffs.

“As we look into a highly uncertain future, we maintain a relative preference for Hermès,” the analysts write.

Jefferies forecasts organic net sales growth of 8.2% for the company in the first quarter.

The post Why analysts are betting on Richemont and Hermes stocks as Trump tariffs take sheen off the luxury sector appeared first on Invezz

Financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, have been rattled in recent weeks amidst continued uncertainty coming out of the White House.

The US continues to slap tariffs on dozens of countries, and they’re retaliating with new duties on American goods – creating an atmosphere mired in uncertainty regarding the future of global trade.

However, the Trump administration remains committed as ever to the crypto market.

After all, it’s a $100 trillion opportunity for the US, according to MicroStrategy executive chairman Michael Saylor.

This suggests crypto prices will come back with a bang, once the macroeconomic dust settles – and it won’t just be the renowned names that benefit.

Up-and-coming revolutionary meme coins like CartelFi stand to benefit just as much.

What you should know about CartelFi

Typically, you can do one of two things with your meme coin holdings. You can either remain invested and wait for them to 100X, or you sell.

But imagine if there was a third alternative that effectively turns your speculative assets into ones that generate healthy yields.

That’s exactly what CartelFi has set out to accomplish. It’s a protocol that aims at turning idle meme coins into yield-generating productive assets.

Investing in CartelFi’s native meme coin also gives you a say in how the DeFi platform develops moving forward. If you’d like to learn more about this “ultimate staking cartel”, click here to visit its website now.

CartelFi presale is attracting solid demand

Loading up on CartelFi may be more exciting than other meme coins as it uses up to 100% of the fees to burn tokens or on buybacks to exert upward pressure on the price of its meme coin.

Investors should note that CartelFi is already generating quite a buzz, given that its ongoing presale has raised more than a quarter-million dollar within a matter of days, indicating potential of going viral in the coming months.  

After the presale, the native meme coin will list on a notable crypto exchange that often improves access to a token and leads to a higher price tag over time – and you may be able to benefit from that potential upside if you built an early position in CartelFi today.

You can explore easy ways to participate in CartelFi presale on this link.

CartelFi is not a capital intensive investment

During the presale, the CartelFi token price goes up at the end of each stage. In the current stage 2 of 30, its priced at $0.0263. In about two days, when this stage ends, the price will bump to $0.0276.

As evident, CartelFi is currently priced at pennies only. So, you won’t have to break a bank if you choose to build a sizable early position in this meme coin.

Even if $10 is all that you can spare, you can buy more than 350 CartelFi token at writing, which may position you to significantly benefit if it realizes the promised 100X potential after the presale.

You can dive deeper into CartelFi before finalising your decision to invest on its website.

The post Should you buy CartelFi as Saylor dubs crypto a $100 trillion opportunity? appeared first on Invezz

In a coordinated effort to shore up investor confidence, top Chinese brokerages have pledged to help stabilize domestic share prices, the Shanghai bourse announced.

This pledge comes as scores of listed companies unveiled plans to buy back their own stock, a response to the escalating trade war that has sent shockwaves through the local market.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) revealed late on Tuesday that it convened a meeting with 10 leading brokerages to emphasize the critical importance of stabilizing markets in the face of external shocks.

The SSE stated that participating firms, including Citic Securities, Orient Securities, and Industrial Securities, expressed optimism about China’s long-term growth prospects and vowed to actively work to steady the market, a clear signal of support for government efforts.

America’s 104% hit on Chinese goods

The United States said that 104% duties on imports from China will take effect shortly after midnight, intensifying trade tensions that have already roiled global markets and smacked Chinese shares, underlining the immediate threat to the Chinese economy.

The brokerage gathering represents an acceleration of efforts by Chinese authorities to try and limit the damage from the trade war.

This follows earlier vows from Central Huijin, the government wealth fund, to increase their stock holdings to provide further market support.

Adding to the effort, more than 100 Chinese listed companies have published announcements regarding share purchases or buybacks, seeking to bolster confidence in a market that has slumped to six-month lows this week, creating further worry for investors.

Construction machinery maker Sanyi Heavy Industry Co stated that it repurchased 5 million shares worth 92.9 million yuan ($12.64 million) through the public market on Tuesday, demonstrating concrete action.

Also Read | Which US sectors are most at risk from China’s new tariffs?

Similarly, XCMG Construction Machinery announced plans to buy back the company’s shares worth up to 3.6 billion yuan, underscoring the scale of corporate efforts to stabilize share prices.

More than 20 listed companies controlled by the central government also unveiled buyback plans under the guidance of China’s state asset regulator, signaling a unified response from the government and state-owned enterprises.

This group includes prominent oil companies PetroChina and Sinopec, as well as power generators such as China Shenhua Energy Co and GD Power Development, highlighting the broad scope of the buyback initiatives.

The post China responds to Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs with brokerage pledges, buyback plans appeared first on Invezz

Digital assets exhibit significant bearishness, as the latest Trump tariff waves triggered massive crypto liquidations.

As fear dominated the sector, Binance CEO Richard Teng weighed in on the escalating trade tensions and their effect on the cryptocurrency market.

While acknowledging the prevailing downtrends, Teng believes long-term trends might favor digital assets and cement Bitcoin’s status as a store of wealth.

Commenting on the current market outlook, Binance’s CEO stated:

This environment could also accelerate interest in crypto as a non-sovereign store of value. Many long-term holders view Bitcoin and other digital assets as resilient during economic stress and shifting policy dynamics.

His remarks coincided with PepeX’s flourishing presale, raising over $1.3 million since its March 24, 2025 debut.

Trade tensions and long-term impact on Bitcoin

Richard Teng shared his stance on the effects of the intensifying trade war on cryptocurrencies.

He emphasized that macroeconomic uncertainties could propel Bitcoin in the long term despite the prevailing pessimism.

Some crypto enthusiasts have exited the space, while others have adopted the wait-and-watch approach to see what is next for growth, trade, and policy.

Richard Teng trusts Trump tariffs will have two-sided impacts on digital assets.

While the trade tension triggers pessimism as macroeconomic woes dampen sentiments, the CEO believes short-term volatility could create a lucrative environment for Bitcoin and other cryptos.

Teng’s remarks match most crypto proponents, including Strategy’s Michael Saylor, who emphasizes Bitcoin’s ability to disrupt mainstream financial protocols during economic tensions.

These conclusions position crypto as a dominant force in the global financial space.

Savvy experts focus on long-term goals despite the current turmoil.

That creates a perfect environment for crypto projects looking to redefine the digital assets sector, including the viral PepeX.

PepeX presale defies the odds

Cryptocurrencies display bearishness as Trump’s trade war catalyzed risk-off sentiments.

However, PepeX thrives in the choppy markets, with over $1.3 million raised about two weeks since opening the ICO.

PepeX’s utility seems to attract experienced investors as hype-driven projects fail to keep pace.

The new project leverages AI to revolutionize the meme crypto space by rivaling struggling alternatives like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and PEPE.

Notably, PepeX uses AI to make tokenization smooth.

Also, its innovative Launchpad allows individuals to create their favorite tokens within five minutes while prioritizing fairness and transparency.

The website highlights:

PepeX was created to let anyone launch a token. An actual fair launch where 95% of tokens are for public sale. And if founders fail, they lose their 5%. The strong will bond. The weak will be removed in 72 hours.

PepeX trades at $0.0255 per token and promises staggering earnings for early adopters.

For instance, those who joined at stage one enjoyed over 300% in returns, while the final phase (stage 30) will offer a 5% return on investment.

Source – PepeX

You can learn more about PepeX via their official website.

The post PepeX thrives as Binance CEO Richard Teng says tariffs could boost Bitcoin demand appeared first on Invezz

The global luxury industry is bracing for its longest downturn in more than two decades, as Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs fuel concerns of a worldwide recession.

Hopes that affluent Americans might prop up the struggling sector are fading, with Wall Street analysts warning of sliding sales and profits across the $400-billion-a-year industry.

European countries, home to the majority of luxury brands, face a 20% tariff on exports to the US.

Goods from the United Kingdom and Switzerland have been hit with 10% and 31% tariffs respectively, sending shockwaves through boardrooms from Paris to Geneva.

Bernstein analyst Luca Solca has sharply downgraded his forecast for global luxury sales, predicting a 2% decline this year instead of the previously expected 5% growth.

If realised, this would mark the sector’s most prolonged slump since the early 2000s.

“Uncertainty, and the likely continuing rout in stock markets, are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy: a global recession,” Solca warned in a note to clients.

Affluent consumers tighten purse strings as markets tumble

While the new tariffs will raise costs for imported luxury goods in the US, the larger threat is the potential for a severe global downturn and sharp corrections in financial markets.

High-net-worth consumers are typically more insulated from recessions, but sustained losses in their investment portfolios could see them cut back on discretionary spending.

Solca now expects the sector’s average earnings before interest and taxes to fall by between 4% and 6% compared to 2024 levels.

However, luxury brands may be better positioned than mass-market companies to manage the tariff shock.

Most luxury houses manufacture in Europe rather than Asia, and they have long navigated export levies to the US.

Some industry insiders believe the incremental cost could be manageable.

Even if the new tariffs are stacked on top of existing duties, the impact on pricing could be relatively minor.

Since tariffs are applied to the wholesale price—generally around 20% of the retail price—brands could offset the increases by raising prices by less than 4%, according to Solca.

This is lower than the usual 5% to 7% annual price hikes many luxury brands have implemented in recent years.

Why Richemont and Hermes stand out

Among the luxury sector, Cartier-owner Richemont and French luxury giant Hermes are standing out as stocks with potential to weather the storm well, analysts say, owing to their strong brand equity and pricing power.

Oliver Chen, an analyst at TD Cowen said his top pick in the luxury sector is Swiss conglomerate Compagnie Financière Richemont, the owner of Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, and Montblanc.

Chen said jewellery could prove to be a more resilient category in the near term, and highlighted that Cartier and Van Cleef have not raised prices as aggressively as other luxury brands over the past two years, preserving a “strong price-to-value proposition.”

That restraint could create room for price increases down the line.

Richemont shares, listed on the Swiss stock exchange, have dropped by more than 12% in the last five days.

Citi’s Thomas Chauvet also backs Richemont, citing its pure-play focus on luxury as a strength that should support pricing power.

He similarly recommends Hermès, pointing out that the brand benefits from lower exposure to US sales compared to other luxury peers.

Hermès shares remain expensive, however, trading at 46.7 times projected earnings for the next 12 months.

Richemont, by contrast, trades at a more modest 20.4 times. Both stocks, though, are trading below their respective five-year averages of 50 for Hermès and 23.8 for Richemont.

Jefferies analysts believe Hermès is well-positioned to outperform its peers, thanks in part to its superior pricing power.

In a research note, they describe the French luxury house as a relative safe haven amid a tougher environment for the sector, with demand softening in the critical US market since mid-February and uncertainties over Trump’s proposed tariffs.

“As we look into a highly uncertain future, we maintain a relative preference for Hermès,” the analysts write.

Jefferies forecasts organic net sales growth of 8.2% for the company in the first quarter.

The post Why analysts are betting on Richemont and Hermes stocks as Trump tariffs take sheen off the luxury sector appeared first on Invezz

Oil prices experienced a sharp decline as trade tensions between China and the US escalated.

Prices reached a four-year low on Wednesday, marking its worst five-day losing streak in three years.

“The main negative factor is concerns about a global recession triggered by the trade war, which would lead to a significant slowdown in oil demand,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

The six-month spread for Brent has dropped 86% from a high of $5.69 on January 15 to its lowest level since mid-November, 79 cents. 

This collapse reflects a shift in market sentiment, moving from tightening supply and expectations of a revival in Chinese demand to a potential surplus.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $61.15 per barrel, down 2.7% from the previous close.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 3% at $57.81 per barrel. 

Tariffs likely to hit demand

Tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Chinese goods increased by 50% on Wednesday, reaching 104%. 

This escalation came after Beijing missed Trump’s Tuesday noon deadline to remove its 34% retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

China has refused to comply with what it perceives as US blackmail, despite Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs if China did not lift its retaliatory measures.

Fritsch said:

In China in particular, oil consumption could be even weaker due to the exceptionally high tariffs.

China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil. 

“China’s 50,000 bpd to 100,000 bpd of oil demand growth is at risk if the trade war continues for longer, however, a stronger stimulus to boost domestic consumption could mitigate the losses,” Ye Lin, vice president of oil commodity markets at Rystad Energy was quoted in a report by Reuters. 

Demand for oil in the US is likely to fall due to  expected countermeasures by other countries and higher inflation as a result of tariffs, even though lower oil prices could lead to lower gasoline prices and provide some relief.

Oversupply risks

As demand falters, supply of oil is set to rise substantially over the next few months. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies recently announced that the cartel would raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in May.

The surprising move dragged on sentiments in the market further as prices fell sharply last week.

OPEC will raise oil output by 135,000 barrels per day this month by unwinding some of its steep voluntary output cuts. 

The market had expected a similar increase in May as well. 

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation said:

Given that there’s plenty of crude oil washing around the world, while demand growth has been repeatedly downgraded for over a year, then lower prices is the understandable result.

According to the International Energy Agency, the surplus in the oil market in 2025 is likely to be around 600,000 barrels per day this year. 

With demand further weakening and supply set to rise further, the surplus is likely to increase.

This would be confirmed in the monthly report of IEA this month. 

Bearish sentiment to dominate

Oil prices have fallen over 18% over the last three to four sessions. 

“It’s fair to say that the bullish sentiment, which had been building from early March, was effectively crushed,” Morrison said. 

The sell-off can easily be attributed to Trump’s larger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs. 

Tariffs slow down trade, and increased costs are borne by importers – in this case, US buyers – and then passed on to US consumers, when possible. 

The result is weaker consumer demand, leading to lower energy consumption and a drop in energy costs.

Source: DailyForex

However, the oversupply in the market remains a major concern in the absence of meaningful demand growth. 

“At this point, I think you have to accept the fact that any rally (in WTI oil prices) that you run into at this point in time probably gets sold off,” Christopher Lewis, analyst at DailyForex, said in a report. 

I think you’ve got a scenario where what you’re looking for is a little bit of a bump higher, some signs of exhaustion, and then maybe shorting it.

The post Trade tensions, oversupply likely to keep oil market in bear territory, experts say appeared first on Invezz

The imposition of higher tariffs on US soybeans by importing countries could have a significant impact on the overall demand for this commodity. 

This decrease in demand could result from increased costs for importers, leading them to seek alternative sources or reduce imports altogether.  

Less competitive US soybeans

Higher tariffs also make US soybeans less competitive compared to those from countries with lower or no tariffs, potentially resulting in a loss of market share. 

Last Friday, the Chinese government announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all imported goods from the United States

This move comes in response to the recent escalation of trade tensions between the two countries, and the new tariffs are set to take effect this week

The decision to impose these counter-tariffs is expected to have significant implications for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Pacific, potentially leading to higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and a further deterioration of the bilateral trade relationship.

China will impose additional tariffs of 10-15% on certain energy and agricultural commodities imported from the US.

This measure is a response to the tariffs the US introduced earlier in March.

Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in a report:

It is therefore very likely that Chinese purchases of US agricultural products will be significantly lower,

This is especially relevant for soybeans.

China accounted for half of US soybean exports

The US Department of Agriculture reported that 52.4 million tons of soybeans, valued at $24.6 billion, were exported from the US last year.

China was responsible for approximately 50% of this.

China will mostly import soybeans from Brazil in the next few months due to seasonal reasons, so there won’t be many changes in the short term, Fritsch said.

Chinese soybean purchases in the US typically increase with the arrival of the new autumn harvest.

“This is unlikely to happen this year.” Fritsch said. 

As in autumn 2018, China is likely to continue to source most of its soybean imports from Brazil next autumn, according to Commerzbank. 

Fritsch noted:

Demand for US soybeans is therefore likely to be significantly lower, which should also have a negative impact on the price outlook.

The soybean price dropped below $10 per bushel on Friday.

Reduction in soybean acreage

The potential shift by China away from the US as a primary soybean supplier carries significant implications that extend beyond the immediate economic impact. 

This move could instigate a ripple effect, influencing US farmers’ planting intentions for the upcoming seasons. 

Faced with a reduced demand from a major importer, farmers may be compelled to reconsider their acreage allocation for soybeans, potentially opting for alternative crops that offer greater market stability or align with shifting global trade dynamics. 

This adjustment in planting strategies could lead to a cascading impact on the agricultural landscape, affecting crop prices, land use patterns, and the overall structure of the US agricultural sector. 

Moreover, the loss of a major export market could have broader economic ramifications, impacting rural communities, agricultural businesses, and the overall balance of trade for the US.

Corn acreage may increase

The USDA’s survey results, released last week, indicate that soybean acreage was expected to decrease by 4% from the previous year.

“The reduction could now be even greater,” Fritsch said. 

The most important customer, Mexico, has been exempted from the reciprocal US tariffs, and China is a less important buyer. Therefore, instead of reducing, corn planting could be increased, according to Fritsch. 

The area used for spring wheat planting may be expanded beyond initial projections.

As a result, prices for corn and wheat could also drop.

The post US soybean market rattled as China strikes with fresh tariffs appeared first on Invezz

Nio stock price has retreated this week and is nearing its all-time low even as rumors of a potential transaction remain. It has dropped in the last four consecutive weeks, and is at its lowest level since May 20th. It is one of the worst-performing EV stocks in China. So, is it safe to buy Nio shares as the trade war escalates and as it forms a risky pattern?

Will the trade war impact Nio and Chinese EVs?

Nio and other Chinese EV companies have retreated sharply this month as investors remain in the sidelines during the ongoing trade war. 

Companies like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Polestar have all dived, mirroring the performance of other Chinese equities.

The main reason for the sell-off is that Donald Trump has restarted his trade war, in what has now become a game of chicken.

Trump started his trade war as soon as he moved to the White House. He initially announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, and a 25% levy on imported steel and aluminum. 

Trump then added another 10% levy a month later. And he ratcheted it up to 34% last week, bringing the new levies at 54%. In a statement on Tuesday, his administration noted that he would add push these levies to 104%.

Chinese EV companies like Nio and Xpeng will largely be unaffected by these tariffs because they don’t do any business in the United States. These companies have also become more self-reliant, meaning that they don’t use many parts from the US. 

The risk, however, is that they may be affected by weaker Chinese demand if the economy moves into a severe slowdown. On the positive side, Beijing has hinted that it will provide more cash to stimulate key economies. 

Potential Nio Power sale

The other potential catalyst for the Nio stock price will be the acquisition of Nio Power by CATL, the giant battery company. According to Reuters, CATL is considering spending about $342 million to acquire the division, which runs about 3,0000 battery swapping stations in China. This is notable since Nio Power was valued at over 10 billion yuan last year.

Nio Power is an important part of its business model. Unlike other Chinese EV companies, it focuses on battery swapping technology, which helps customers deal with range anxiety. In this, customers only go to its stations and swap batteries for less than five minutes.

This model, however, may become overtaken by other technologies, including the one by BYD that lets customers charge vehicles within five minutes. 

Nio’s business has had some successes and challenges in the past few months. Its most recent results showed that its total revenues stood at $2.6 billion in the fourth quarter, up by 15.2% from the same period a year earlier. However, Nio continues to lose money, with its quarterly loss soaring to $974 million.

Nio stock price analysis: to rebound, but a crash to $1.12 likely

NIO chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the Nio share price has been in a freefall in the past few years. It crashed to a low of $3.10, its lowest level since May 2020. It recently dropped below the key support at $3.67, the lower side of the descending triangle pattern shown in purple. It also remains below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. 

Therefore, the stock will likely be under pressure as the trade war escalates and then bounce back later this year. A rebound may see it rise to the psychological point at $4.0, up by 27% from the current level. The worst-case scenario for Nio stock is where it crashes to $1.12. This target is estimated by measuring the widest part of the descending triangle and then the same distance from its lower side.

The post Nio stock price resilient to trade war, yet crash to $1.12 likely appeared first on Invezz