Airbnb stock price has price has remained in a tight range in the past three months as concerns about its business remained. It was trading at $135 on Friday, down by over 20% from its highest swing in 2024. So, what next for the ABNB share price ahead of its earnings?

Airbnb earnings ahead

The Airbnb stock price has been in the spotlight as it continued to disrupt the hospitality industry. It annual revenue has moved from over $3.3 billion in 2020 to over $10.8 billion in the trailing twelve months.

A key concern is that its business is slowing. The most recent results showed that its third-quarter revenue rose by 10% to $3.7 billion. Its net income and adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.4 billion and $2 billion, respectively.

Airbnb will be in focus next week as it publishes its fourth-quarter results. Analysts expect these numbers to show that its revenue rose by 9.17% in Q4 to over $2.4 billion. If these analysts are accurate, it means that its annual revenue will be $11 billion, up bt 11.36% from a year earlier.

Airbnb has also become a highly profitable company as the management has focused on slashing costs over the years. 

The most recent numbers revealed that it had a free cash flow of $1.1 billion. FCF is one of the most important metrics because it considers all funds left after a company spends to grow its business. Firms use their FCF to either expand their operations and reward their shareholders.

Read more: Airbnb stock dives as revenge travel boom fades ahead of earnings

Airbnb has historically used its FCF to reward its shareholders through share repurchases. It repurchased shares worth $1.1 billion in the last quarter and has about $4.2 billion remaining. The frm will likely continue buying back these shares.

Share repurchases reward investors reducing the number of outstanding shares, a move that increases thee earnings per share. In Airbnb’s case, the fully diluted share count dropped from 698 million to 665 million. 

A key concern about the Airbnb stock is that its valuation is not cheap as the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains at 33.7, higher than the sector median of 19. The forward EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 6.8 is higher than the sector median of 1.27.

Read more: Expedia vs Airbnb stock: Mark Mahaney picks a side

Airbnb stock price analysis

ABNB stock chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the ABNB stock price remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $221.8. The decline is likely because the company has continued to face substantial competition from hotels and other vacation rental firms. 

On the positive side, the stock has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a popular bullish reversal sign. The head section of this pattern is at $84, its all-time low. It is now in the right side of the H&S pattern.

Airbnb stock has formed a small bullish flag pattern. Therefore, the stock will likely have a strong rebound in the coming months. Most of these gains will be confirmed if it rises above the neckline at $150.

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Coinbase stock price will be in the spotlight next week as the blue-chip crypto exchange publishes its fourth quarter earnings that will cap its best year on record. COIN has remained in a tight range this year as Bitcoin and most altcoins retreated. It ended the week at $275, down by almost 22% from its highest level in 2024. So, what next for the COIN and CONY stocks?

Coinbase tailwinds and headwinds

Coinbase, the biggest crypto exchange in the United States, has had numerous tailwinds that have pushed its stock up by 776% from its lowest point in 2023. 

Cryptocurrencies have surged, with Bitcoin hovering near its all-time high and the market cap of all coins jumping to over $3 trillion. Coinbase and other crypto exchanges do well when these coins are thriving. 

Coinbase has also expanded its crypto custody business as it has become the biggest custodian in the US. It houses Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for companies like Grayscale and Blackrock. It will likely house more funds when they are approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Further, Coinbase launched Base, a layer-2 network that has become the third-biggest chain in the industry. Data shows that the Base Blockchain protocols handled over $10.7 billion in volume in the last seven days and $50 billion in the last 30 days. 

As we have written before, Base Blockchain valuation may get to over $10 billion when Coinbase decides to launch its airdrop. 

Coinbase’s revenue has also become highly diversified, with subscriptions playing an important role. 

However, the company has faced numerous challenges. Competition is the biggest challenge as the company has continued to lose market share to foreign firms like Crypto.com, Bybit, and OKX. Coinbase has also lost share to DEX networks like Raydium, Orca, and Jupiter. 

Coinbase earnings preview

Coinbase will publish its financial results on Thursday next week. The average revenue estimate will be $1.75 billion, a 83% surge from a year earlier. If that figure is accurate, it will bring its annual revenue to $6.01 billion, up by about 93% from 2023.

Coinbase’s earnings per share will move from $1.01 in Q4’23 to $1.9 last year, while the annual EPS will be $6.6. 

Analysts expect that Coinbase’s earnings and revenue will be $4.78 and $6.3 billion in 2025. However, as in the past, it has always been difficult to predict Coinbase’s earnings because of the volatility of the crypto market. 

The most recent earnings report showed that Coinbase’s total revenue was $674 million in the third quarter. Notably, most of these numbers came from subscriptions and services, which brought in $334 million. Its transaction revenue was $284 million.

That is a sign that the company has transitioned its business, which will ensure that it keeps doing well even in crypto bear markets. 

Coinbase stock price forecast

COIN stock chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the COIN stock price bottomed at $31 in 2023 and then rebounded to a high of $350 this year. It is now hovering at a key level that has coincided with the highest swing on March 25. The stock remains above the 50-week and 25-week moving averages. 

Therefore, the stock will likely bounce back in the coming weeks as bulls target the YTD high of $350. A break above that level will point to more gains, potentially to $430, up by 57% from the current level. 

A Coinbase stock price rebound will likely lead to more gains for the CONY ETF. CONY is a covered call ETF that invests in Coinbase stock and then sells call options of the same.

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The renminbi remained under pressure last week after the US imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods, risking a prolonged trade war. The USD/CNY exchange rate rose to 7.2877, its highest level since January 21. So, what next for the Chinese yuan?

China economic slowdown

The USD/CNY exchange rate rose slightly after data revealed that China’s inflation remained weak in January. According to the statistics agency, the headline consumer price index rose from 0.0% in December to 0.7% in January, missing the analyst estimate of 0.8%.

This inflation growth translated to an annual rate of 0.5%, higher than the median estimate of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI) remained in a deflation, as it dropped by 2.3% during the month. 

These numbers meant that China’s inflation remained low in January, a sign that the economic slowdown continued. 

China’s weakness may continue this year as a trade war started with the United States, a key trading partner. Donald Trump implemented huge tariffs on Chinese goods worth over $450 billion a year. China has also implemented more tariffs, which will take effect this week. 

It is still too early to determine the impact of these tariffs on the Chinese economy. One of the potential impacts is that US buyers of Chinese goods pause their purchases as they wait for a trade settlement.

However, China’s economy will likely continue doing well in the long term since Americans will pay these tariffs. 

The other impact is that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will start cutting interest rates this year to supercharge the economy.

US inflation data ahead

The next important catalyst for the USD/CNY exchange rate will be the US release of the latest inflation data on Wednesday.

Economists expect the report to show that the headline CPI slowed from 0.4% in December to 0.3% in January. They see the data remaining unchanged at 2.9% year over year.

US core CPI is expected to rise from 0.2% in December to 0.3% in January. This increase will then translate to a YoY growth of 3.2%.

If correct, these numbers mean that US inflation remains hot, putting the Fed in a tight spot. Analysts expect that the Fed will hold rates steady in the coming months and start cutting in its July meeting. 

Therefore, a combination of a hawkish Fed and a dovish PBoC may put pressure on the renminbi in the coming months.

Read more: January jobs report: hiring expected to cool, unemployment steady as 2025 begins

USD/CNY technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD to CNY exchange rate bottomed at 7.2375 in January and then bounced back to 7.2877, its highest level since January 2021. 

It has risen above the crucial resistance at 7.2764, the highest swing in January 2024. The pair has also crossed the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and moved above the top of the trading range of the Murrey Math Lines at 7.2750. 

Therefore, the pair’s path of least resistance is upward. The next reference level to watch is 7.3340, the strong pivot reverse, and the highest level in January. 

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The Nikkei 225 index, which includes the biggest Japanese stocks, has remained under pressure this year as the Japanese yen and government bond yields rose. The index retreated to a low of ¥38,400, down 5.40% from its highest level this year. So, what’s next for the index ahead of key Japanese company earnings?

Japanese yen and bond yields

The Nikkei 225 index’s weakness is likely because of the hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) sentiment. Unlike other central banks, the BoJ has maintained a fairly hawkish tone this year as inflation and wage growth have continued rising.

The BoJ hiked interest rates in the January meeting, and analysts believe that it will deliver more hikes ahead. That’s because Japan now has a higher inflation rate than other countries, including the United States.

Japan stocks underperform when the BoJ is hawkish. A likely reason is that the central bank view leads to a stronger Japanese yen, which negatively impacts many Japan’s experters.

The Japanese yen has strengthened in the past few weeks, moving from this year’s high of 156 to 152 today. It has dropped to the lowest level in weeks, a trend that may continue later this year.

Japan’s government bond yields continued rising after the BoJ ended the yield curve control program. On Friday, the 10-year yield rose to 1.30%, the highest level since 2011. The five-year yield has risen to 0.98%. 

These numbers mean that for once in a long time that Japanese investors can receive a return by just investing in government bonds. As such, many of them have rotated from the struggling stock market to these bonds.

Key Nikkei index earnings ahead

The next key catalyst for the Nikkei 225 index will be key earnings from some of the biggest companies in Japan. 

Softbank, the ninth biggest company in Japan, will be one of the top companies to watch when it publishes its results on February 12. These numbers will come at a time when technology valuations have jumped and when the firm is investing aggressively in artificial intelligence (AI). Just recently, it teamed with Oracle and OpenAI to invest in US AI projects.

The other notable name to watch will be Recruit Holdings, the fifth-biggest names in Japan, that releases its results on Tuesday. Recruit, the parent company of Indeed and Glassdoor, has seen its stock drop to ¥10,800.

Other top Nikkei 225 index companies to watch will be Shiseido, Yamaha Motor, Rakuten Bank, Sony, Japan Display, Honda Motor, Nissan, ENEOS, and Tokio Marine.

Honda and Nissan will be watched after the latter canceled merger talks, a move that analysts believe is a good one for Honda.

Nikkei 225 index analysis

Nikkei chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei index has remained under pressure in the past few months. It has retreated to ¥38,787, down from ¥40,380 this year. 

The index has moved slightly below the key support at the 50-day moving average. Most notably, it has formed an ascending channel, and has now moved slightly above the lower side. 

Therefore, the index will likely remain in this range this week. The next key support and resistance levels to watch will be at ¥38,000 and ¥40,000.

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The USD/JPY exchange rate dropped for five consecutive days, reaching a low of 151.42 on Friday, its lowest level since December 11. It has dropped by over 4.7% from its highest level this year as traders focus on the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan actions. So, what next for the USD to JPY exchange rate?

US jobs data and inflation report

The USD/JPY exchange rate pulled back after the US published the January nonfarm payroll (NFP) report.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the data showed that the economy added 143k jobs in January after creating 307k in the previous month. The figure was lower than the median estimate of 170k.

Another data showed that the unemployment rate dropped for the second consecutive month, moving from 4.1% to 4.0%. This was notable as it was a sign that the rate was moving towards below 4%. 

These numbers came a week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and signaled that it would hold them steady. Analysts expect the bank to restart cutting rates in the July meeting.

The Fed’s biggest concern is that the US inflation has remained substantially higher for a while. Recent data showed that the headline CPI rose to 2.9% in December, while the core figure softened to 3.2%.

The US will release the consumer inflation data impacting the USD/JPY pair this week. Analysts anticipate that the headline CPI figure will be 0.3%, down from 0.4% in the previous month. It will translate to a YoY figure of 2.9%, much higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

Economists expect the core inflation figure, excluding volatile food and energy prices, to move from 0.2% to 0.3%. It will remain at 3.2% on a YoY basis.

US inflation may remain higher as Donald Trump implements import tariffs. Imports on China have already started attracting a 10% tariff, while Mexico and Canada will attract a 25% levy. 

Therefore, the Fed may decide to maintain higher interest rates. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair will speak this week, and possibly affect the USD/JPY pair.

BoJ rate hikes

The USD/JPY pair has retreated after the Bank of Japan maintained a hawkish stance at its last monetary policy meeting.

Unlike the Fed that is cutting rates, the BoJ hiked interest rates in the last monetary policy meeting. It moved rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, and officials maintained that this trend may continue since inflation remains high.

The most recent economic data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.9% in November to 3.6% in December, the highest level since 2023. It has risen in the past two consecutive months. 

Economists believe that the BoJ will deliver more hikes later this year, which explains why the USD/JPY pair has slumped.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate peaked at 158.86 this year and has now plunged to 152 amid the Fed and BoJ divergence. It has moved below the top of the trading range of the Murrey Math Lines at 151.56.

The USD/JPY pair has also dropped below the 50-day and 100-day Weighted Moving Averages (EMA). These two lines are about to cross each other, which is a bearish confirmation view. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have pointed downwards. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the bottom of the trading range at 148.60 and its lowest swing in December. 

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