Indian equity markets experienced a jubilant session on Friday, marked by a broad-based rally led by soaring metal stocks.

The surge was fueled by the US’s decision to suspend additional tariffs on India until July 9, providing a welcome boost to investor sentiment and lifting market confidence.

The Sensex traded 1569.01 points or 2.12 per cent higher at 75,416.16 as at 12:28 p.m., while the Nifty 50 climbed 511.15 points or 2.28 per cent to 22,910.30, reflecting the strong upward momentum.

The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices also participated in the rally, gaining 2-3 per cent, indicating a healthy participation from across the market capitalization spectrum.

Overall, the breadth of the rally was impressive, with a total of 2,402 stocks advancing on the National Stock Exchange out of 2,756 stocks that were traded.

Only 284 stocks declined, underscoring the overwhelmingly positive sentiment.

Metal stocks shine: a golden day for miners and steelmakers

Metal stocks were the undisputed stars of the day, driving a significant portion of the market’s gains.

Pharma, Realty, IT, and other sectoral indices also traded in positive territory, contributing to the overall upward momentum, but metal stocks stood out for their particularly strong performance.

Shares of Hindalco, JSW Steel, and Tata Steel were among the top gainers in the Nifty 50 index, reflecting the strong investor confidence in the sector.

Coal India and Trent also traded strongly, adding to the positive momentum.

Top gainers of the day: Hindalco leads the pack

Hindalco shares spearheaded the rally, surging 7.21 per cent to ₹604.65 on the NSE as of 12:37 p.m., demonstrating the strong investor appetite for metal stocks.

Tata Steel also gained significant momentum, despite mixed reactions from market experts regarding its Netherlands’ restructuring plans.

The stock surged 5.23 per cent to ₹133.83, hitting a high of ₹134.70 during the session, indicating continued investor interest.

JSW Steel shares climbed 4.95 per cent to ₹992.35, while Coal India rose 4.32 per cent to ₹390.80, adding to the positive sentiment in the metal sector.

Other Tata Group stocks, including Trent, Tata Motors, and Tata Consumer Products, also saw increased investor confidence, contributing to the broad-based market rally.

Trent soared 4.17 per cent to ₹4,812.75, highlighting the positive sentiment surrounding the Tata Group.

Mixed performance: TCS flat after Q4 results

TCS traded flat at ₹3,249.90 as of 1:05 p.m., after hitting a high of ₹3,298.95 following the release of its Q4 results, suggesting that investors were still digesting the company’s performance.

Reliance Industries also contributed to the rally, rising 2.90 per cent to ₹1,219.75 amid strong market cues.

Adani group stocks, including Adani Green Energy, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, and Adani Power, also soared 2-4 per cent, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the Adani Group.

A total of 115 stocks hit the upper circuit today, including JSW Holdings, Nibe Ltd, Oriana Power, Wockhardt, and Pearl Global, indicating strong buying pressure across a wide range of sectors.

Anand Rathi Wealth traded flat on the NSE at ₹1,778.20, after hitting a high of ₹1,837.65 following its Q4 results.

The company reported a 30 per cent jump in profit after tax (PAT) to ₹74 crore in the March 2025 quarter, showcasing its strong financial performance.

On the BSE, Sarda Energy and Gravita India rallied over 14 per cent, highlighting the positive momentum in the broader market.

The underperformers: Apollo Hospitals and Asian Paints in the red

Despite the overwhelmingly positive sentiment, a few stocks bucked the trend, with Apollo Hospitals slipping 0.47 per cent to ₹6,802.30 and Asian Paints dipping 0.49 per cent to ₹2,399.30, showing that not all sectors were participating in the rally.

Meanwhile, Muthoot Finance plunged over 5 per cent to ₹2,025.45, while Max Health and Jyothy Labs also depreciated close to 3 per cent, further highlighting the selective nature of the market’s gains.

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Asian stocks ended lower on Friday, paring gains from the previous session sparked by US President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause.

While mainland Chinese and Hong Kong shares rose on expectations of policy support, most other regional markets declined, weighed down by renewed concerns over trade tensions and a stronger yen.

China, Hong Kong stocks gain on stimulus hopes

China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.45% to 3,238.23 as investors awaited signals from a high-level government meeting expected to outline further stimulus measures.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index advanced 1.13% to 20,914.69 following Trump’s remarks that initial trade deals were “very close” and that he remained optimistic about future negotiations with Beijing.

Mainland investor flows helped pare losses during what has been the Hang Seng’s worst week since 2018.

Shares of electric-vehicle and semiconductor firms posted strong gains.

BYD surged 7.2%, Li Auto rose 5.6%, and SMIC climbed 5.9%.

On the downside, Trip.com dropped 4.6%, while Alibaba and Meituan slipped 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively.

Japan market slides

Japanese equities retreated sharply, dragged lower by a stronger yen that pressured export-heavy sectors.

The Nikkei 225 fell 2.96% to 33,585.58, and the broader Topix declined 2.85% to 2,466.91.

Major exporters saw heavy selling. Toyota, Panasonic, Sony, and Canon each dropped between 4% and 7%.

Fast Retailing, parent of Uniqlo, declined over 2%, and chip equipment supplier Advantest shed 4.6%.

Bucking the trend, Baycurrent surged 12.5% after raising its profit outlook and unveiling a share buyback.

Indian markets end in green

Indian markets that opened after a holiday on April 10 ended the session strongly higher.

At the close of trading, the Sensex surged by 1,310.11 points, or 1.77%, to settle at 75,157.26. The Nifty followed suit, rising by 429.40 points, or 1.92%, to finish at 22,828.55.

Among the biggest gainers on the Nifty were Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Coal India, and Jio Financial.

Other regional markets

In South Korea, the Kospi lost 0.5% to 2,432.72 as the trade standoff between the US and China weighed on sentiment.

Key stocks such as Samsung Electronics, POSCO Holdings, LG Energy Solution, and Hyundai Motor fell between 2% and 5%.

Australian markets also pulled back amid concerns about global growth.

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.82% to 7,646.50, while the All Ordinaries slipped 0.76% to 7,853.70. Mining, energy, and healthcare shares led losses.

Wall Street on Thursday

After a historic rally on Wednesday, US stocks experienced a steep decline during Thursday’s trading session.

The major indices posted substantial losses but remained well above their recent lows.

The Nasdaq dropped 737.66 points, or 4.3%, to 16,387.31, the S&P 500 fell 188.85 points, or 3.5%, to 5,268.05, and the Dow Jones lost 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, to 39,593.66.

The market’s pullback came amid growing concerns about escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

President Trump’s decision to exclude China from the tariff pause and implement a 125% tariff on Chinese imports added further pressure on investor sentiment.

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Argentine peso futures have fallen sharply in recent days, reflecting traders’ growing concerns about the currency’s prospects.

According to a Reuters report, market participants are concerned about the potential impact on the peso as the country navigates a challenging financial landscape marked by strong capital controls, a crawling peg exchange rate, and continuing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The sharp drop in peso futures

The April peso future contract dropped sharply, falling from 1,125 per dollar on April 9 to around 1,180 on Friday.

This downward shift follows the IMF’s announcement of a staff-level agreement with Argentina on a fresh $20 billion loan package to supplement the country’s shrinking reserves.

However, this news has not encouraged confidence in traders, who are now wondering what such an agreement will mean for the exchange rate regime.

According to the report, the uncertainty has turned the peso futures market into a high-risk guessing game.

With the Argentine economy straining under the weight of inflation and budget deficits, traders are questioning whether the government’s current policies can hold or if a more significant devaluation could be imminent.

Crawl and capital controls: the effects

Argentina’s capital controls and crawling peg, which allows the peso to drop by 1% each month, have created unfavorable trading circumstances.

The peso’s value is strictly regulated, allowing minimal room for market swings.

While many analysts believe that some type of devaluation is imminent, there are disputes over the degree and timing.

In April, the government sought to calm speculation by stating that a sudden devaluation was not part of its plans.

Diverging predictions: market split

As the peso remains unstable, market views on Argentina’s currency rate strategy are sharply divided.

Some observers foresee a devaluation, implying that IMF intervention may demand considerable modifications to current regulations.

Others doubt this likelihood, given the government’s pledge to maintain stability.

Meanwhile, a faction of traders expects the implementation of a currency band, which would allow the peso to weaken within specific limits, offering a middle ground between strict regulation and full deregulation.

This lack of consensus among market participants has produced turmoil in peso futures, exacerbated by the expected board approval for the new IMF loan program on Friday.

Despite a large decrease earlier in the week, peso futures recovered slightly after a significant dip on Thursday, which demonstrated the market’s volatility.

As the situation evolves, market observers, including Argentina-based settlement and clearing agency Cohen, are keenly monitoring the developments surrounding the IMF agreement and the government’s decisions on the exchange rate.

Overall, recent volatility in Argentine peso futures reflects the country’s broader economic concerns.

As traders traverse a complex web of capital regulations, government policies, and external financial support, the prognosis remains uncertain.

With the IMF deal on the table and President Milei’s push for change, stakeholders must remain cautious, as the peso’s future trajectory is in the balance.

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Chinese e-commerce companies are stepping up to help the country’s exporters tap the domestic market as the US-China trade war intensifies with both countries levying dizzyingly high tariffs against each other’s imports.

China’s e-commerce heavyweight JD.com announced on Friday it will set up a 200 billion yuan ($27.35 billion) fund to help domestic exporters pivot to local markets, as the conflict is weighing heavily on Chinese manufacturers.

Beijing retaliated against Washington’s latest tariff hikes by raising its own duties on US imports to 125% on Friday.

This escalation followed President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese goods to a steep 145%, the highest effective rate to date.

JD.com said it plans to dispatch staff directly to Chinese foreign-trade enterprises to source their high-quality products.

The company will also create a dedicated section on its platform to showcase these goods, promising to funnel traffic and marketing resources to boost their visibility among local consumers.

Alibaba’s Freshippo to have a special zone on its platform for exporters

In a parallel initiative, Alibaba’s supermarket chain Freshippo, known locally as Hema, announced similar measures to support Chinese exporters caught in the crossfire of the trade war.

The retailer said it would establish a specialised zone on its platform exclusively for products from export-focused companies.

Freshippo also pledged to simplify the registration process for these businesses and grant them access to its warehouse infrastructure, aiming to fast-track their entry into the domestic market.

While these programmes may help offset some losses from dwindling overseas demand, analysts caution that exporters will encounter fierce competition in an economy that is losing momentum.

Domestic demand struggles to absorb the excess supply

China’s efforts to redirect its export engine toward domestic consumers are hindered by persistently weak spending at home.

Fresh data released Thursday showed another dip in consumer price inflation, underscoring the challenges Beijing faces in stimulating demand.

“The Chinese domestic market can’t absorb existing supply, much less additional amounts,” warned Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

He suggested that Beijing might resort to familiar tactics such as offering concessions to the US, offloading surplus goods to other countries, subsidising struggling firms, or allowing inefficient businesses to collapse.

Further complicating matters, Goldman Sachs on Thursday trimmed its forecast for China’s GDP growth to 4%, citing the twin pressures of global economic headwinds and the deepening trade spat with the United States.

Although exports to the US account for roughly 3% of China’s GDP, Goldman analysts estimate that 10 million to 20 million Chinese jobs are tied to these exports, amplifying the stakes for Beijing.

Beijing seeks to deepen ties with non-US partners to expand the market

China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed this week that it had convened major business associations to explore measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption.

Meanwhile, policymakers are expected to roll out fresh incentives within days, including expanded subsidies under an existing trade-in scheme for home appliances.

On the international front, Chinese companies are increasingly shifting their focus to other markets.

Textile firms, for example, are moving production to Southeast Asia and beyond.

“This year, we are developing customers in Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe to reduce our reliance on the US market,” said Zhao from Green Willow Textile in a CNBC report.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia next week in a bid to deepen regional economic ties.

Trade with Southeast Asia has surged since 2019, making it China’s largest trading partner, followed by the European Union and the US, according to Chinese customs data.

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Consumer confidence in the United States has slumped to its weakest level in over ten years, undercut by escalating trade tensions and growing fears of inflation and job losses.

The latest survey from the University of Michigan, released Friday, revealed that its closely watched consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in April from 57 the previous month.

This marked not only a continued deterioration but also one of the lowest readings since the global financial crisis.

The figure came in well below economists’ expectations of 54.6, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.

The survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, warned of “multiple warning signs” flashing across the economy, with pessimism spreading uniformly across demographics.

He said:

This decline was pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation.

Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month.

The survey was conducted from March 25 to April 8, a period bracketed by significant policy announcements.

President Trump’s April 2 declaration of “Liberation Day” tariffs set the tone, triggering a sharp sell-off in financial markets.

Though Trump later announced a 90-day pause on certain measures, he maintained blanket tariffs on nearly all imports, raising fears of prolonged economic strain.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Inflation fears reach new heights

The University of Michigan survey found that consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have soared to levels not seen since 1981.

Respondents now expect prices to rise by 6.7% over the coming year, a sharp increase from 5% in March.

Long-term inflation forecasts also climbed, reaching 4.4% for the next five years.

These expectations reflect the growing anxiety among consumers as Trump escalated tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, with Beijing retaliating in kind.

Steel, aluminum, and automotive imports remain subject to steep duties, contributing to a sense of mounting economic pressure.

Hard data, such as employment figures and retail sales, have so far offered a mixed picture.

Hiring continues at a healthy clip, but softer retail sales in recent months hint that households could soon tighten their belts.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sought to temper concerns, saying last week:

“Sometimes the surveys are very negative, but they keep spending. People spent right through the pandemic, and they spent right through this time of higher inflation.”

Wall Street jitters and recession risks loom larger

Market volatility, intensified by tariff hikes, has rattled even affluent consumers whose spending has buoyed the economy through recent years of high inflation.

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, cautioned that sustained market turbulence could finally dampen their confidence.

“Wealthy consumers’ stock market gains kept the economy growing in 2024 despite high prices, but the wealthy won’t feel confident enough to keep spending if this keeps up,” Adams noted in an analyst report.

Adding to the chorus of concern, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink likened the current environment to the uncertainty of the 2008 financial crisis.

We’ve seen periods like this before when there were large, structural shifts in policy and markets — like the financial crisis, Covid-19 and surging inflation in 2022.

“We always stayed connected with clients, and some of BlackRock’s biggest leaps in growth followed,” he added.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also weighed in, describing the outlook as fraught with risks.

“The economy is facing considerable turbulence, with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’” Dimon said following the bank’s quarterly earnings release.

As both soft data and consumer sentiment sour, the durability of the US economy appears increasingly in question.

Analysts and policymakers alike will be watching closely to see whether spending habits hold or falter under the combined weight of inflation, policy shifts, and growing market unease.

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