European stock markets kicked off the week on a positive note Monday, as investors grasped onto a sliver of stability following recent trade turmoil, turning their attention partly towards the upcoming first-quarter earnings season.
A temporary exemption for electronics from new US tariffs provided the primary catalyst for the upward momentum, even as contradictory signals from Washington kept underlying uncertainty firmly in place.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index reflected the improved sentiment, rising 2.0% by 8:05 a.m. in London.
Technology shares were notable beneficiaries after the White House indicated, via guidance from US Customs and Border Protection issued late Friday, that smartphones, computers, and other electronic components would be spared from the hefty “reciprocal” tariffs announced earlier by President Donald Trump.
This initial move, which imposed levies up to 145% on certain Chinese goods, had threatened significant disruption, particularly for tech giants like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains.
Across the continent, major indices followed suit. By 03:05 ET (07:05 GMT), Germany’s DAX index had climbed 2.1%, France’s CAC 40 added 2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.5%.
The broader pan-European Stoxx 600 index also posted gains of 1.4%.
The relief rally suggested investors were speculating, or perhaps hoping, that the intense market backlash following Trump’s initial tariff volleys might temper the administration’s future actions, leading to a less damaging trade conflict overall.
Tariff whiplash: uncertainty remains paramount
However, the sense of calm proved fragile. Over the weekend, President Trump himself muddied the waters, suggesting the electronics exemption was merely temporary.
He indicated plans to announce separate tariffs specifically targeting electronics, potentially including semiconductors, as early as the coming week.
Furthermore, he emphasized that electronics imports from China were not entirely off the hook, stating they remained subject to a separate 20% tariff imposed back in March.
This back-and-forth underscored the persistent lack of clarity surrounding US trade policy.
Shifting focus: ECB meeting looms garge
With a light economic calendar in Europe on Monday, market participants are already looking ahead to a pivotal meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) later this week.
Policymakers face a complex balancing act, needing to factor in the renewed economic headwinds generated by trade tensions and the recent strengthening of the euro against the dollar.
Analysts at ING suggested the ECB’s perspective has likely evolved since its March gathering, according investing.com.
Back then, optimism was cautiously building, supported by factors like Germany’s fiscal policy shifts and increased European defense spending, with interest rates perceived as nearing a neutral level.
Now, however, “new US tariffs on European goods, coupled with a rising euro and falling energy prices, have raised concerns over growth and disinflation in the near term,” according to ING, potentially prompting a more cautious stance from the central bank.
On the corporate front, the tariff news directly benefited European technology stalwarts.
Shares in companies like semiconductor equipment maker ASML (AS:ASML) and software giant SAP (ETR:SAPG) registered strong gains, reacting positively to the temporary reprieve for electronics largely sourced from China.
Separately, Swiss building materials company Holcim (SIX:HOLN) provided an update on its strategic plans, announcing that the anticipated spin-off of its significant North American business is targeted for June.
This move remains subject to shareholder approval at the company’s annual general meeting scheduled for May 14.
Oil market stabilizes amid demand worries
Meanwhile, in the commodities sphere, oil prices found some stability on Monday after enduring recent declines.
The earlier losses were primarily driven by concerns that the escalating trade friction between the US and China – the world’s two largest oil consumers – would inevitably dampen global economic growth and curb demand for fuel.
As of 03:05 ET, Brent crude futures saw a minor dip of 0.1% to $64.67 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also edged down 0.1% to $61.44 a barrel.
Both benchmarks had shed approximately $10 per barrel since the beginning of the month, highlighting the tangible impact of trade war anxieties on energy markets.
China’s exports jumped by 12.4% in March, hitting a five-month high as manufacturers raced to ship goods ahead of the latest round of US tariffs.
The surge far exceeded economists’ expectations of 4.4% growth and marked a sharp turnaround from the 3% fall recorded in February.
The rise was attributed in part to the timing of the lunar new year, which fell in early February this year.
Factories ramped up production once the holiday ended, flooding ports with shipments before tariffs took hold.
However, economists cautioned that this boost would likely prove temporary, as US-China trade tensions continue to escalate.
“Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of ‘Liberation Day’,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.
But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters. We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.
G7 and emerging markets drive export rebound
By destination, China’s export gains were widespread. Exports to the United States rose 9.1% year-on-year in March, a sharp reversal from the 9.8% decline in February.
Shipments to the United Kingdom jumped by 16.3%, following a 13.9% drop the previous month. Exports to the European Union also recovered, up 10.3% after falling 11.5% in February.
Emerging markets provided further momentum. Exports to Africa soared by 37%, while shipments to ASEAN countries climbed 11.6%.
Unlike other regions, ASEAN-bound exports had not dipped during the holiday period, providing a steady flow of trade.
Yet the rebound faces growing headwinds as the US administration prepares to tighten its grip on Chinese imports.
The White House recently clarified that exemptions on certain electronics products would be short-lived, with new tariffs on semiconductors and consumer electronics expected soon.
Temporary tariff relief offers little comfort
Kelvin Lam, senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that a brief reprieve on electronics tariffs, announced late Friday, might give Chinese exporters some breathing room.
However, he warned that the relief was only temporary and limited in scope.
“The temporary relief for the electronics sector may offer some breathing room for Chinese exporters before the new tariffs come into effect. We expect more clarity on the new tariff rates once the Section 232 Investigation concludes — with a likely range of 10% to 125%, according to US Commerce Secretary,” he said.
The existing 20% tariff linked to China’s role in the fentanyl trade remains in place.
The US and China have slapped punishingly high tariffs on each other’s imports, escalating their trade conflict.
While Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of several planned global tariffs, he simultaneously hiked duties on Chinese goods to 145%.
Beijing hit back, raising its own tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in response to Washington’s latest moves.
However, US officials made clear over the weekend that the reprieve would be short-lived. Trump himself warned that no one was “getting off the hook.”
“There was no Tariff ‘exception,’” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Sunday. “These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they’re just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’”
Trump also pledged to launch a national security investigation into the semiconductor industry and the broader electronics supply chain. “We will not be held hostage by other countries, especially hostile trading nations like China,” he declared.
Xi Jinping seeks Southeast Asia lifeline
Amid the rising tariff pressure, Chinese president Xi Jinping is turning to Southeast Asia to shore up trade ties.
Kicking off a three-nation trip in Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, Xi called for deeper cooperation on supply chains, technology, and green economy initiatives.
In an article published in Vietnam’s Communist Party newspaper Nhandan ahead of his visit on Monday, Xi wrote: “The two sides should strengthen cooperation in production and supply chains.”
Vietnam, facing the prospect of a 46% US tariff hike in July once a global moratorium expires, has been eager to solidify its role as a regional manufacturing hub.
Xi’s push for closer ties with Hanoi highlights Beijing’s urgency to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on the increasingly hostile US market.
The United States has emerged as one of the largest hubs for Bitcoin mining globally, especially following China’s sweeping crackdown on crypto mining activities in 2021.
The U.S. share of global Bitcoin mining surged from just 4.5% in 2020 to an impressive 37.8% by January 2022.
Now, with former President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and recent initiatives around the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, American miners are feeling increasingly optimistic about expanding their operations.
In an interview with Invezz, Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining — a digital mining platform — shared insights into the industry’s renewed optimism.
“If the federal government establishes a national framework for crypto regulations and offers tax incentives to miners, it will cement the U.S. mining sector’s global leadership,” Zalan said.
However, the industry continues to face criticism over its energy consumption. Mining a single Bitcoin demands as much electricity as powering 61 U.S. homes for a year, according to NFTevening.
Zalan also discussed how GoMining is advancing sustainable practices, why smaller miners may struggle without consolidating into mining pools, and how mining infrastructure could be adapted to support AI workloads — creating new revenue opportunities for miners.
Here are edited excerpts from the emailed interview:
Mark Zalan
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve decision, SEC’s stance on mining boosting confidence
Invezz: According to recent statistics, US-based mining pools now control over 40% of the global hash rate. What’s driving the investments and confidence in Bitcoin mining in the US?
I think the US is finally on the right track to becoming the “crypto capital of the world” — something the domestic market has long been anticipating.
Many investors, from retail to institutional, wanted to enter the growing vertical, but they were worried about the industry’s ambiguous legal status.
President Trump’s decision to create the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the Digital Asset Stockpile was a powerful signal to many investors that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are legitimised as a “clean” asset type.
At the same time, the regulators clarify their stances towards mining: for example, the SEC recently confirmed that mining activities are not a security.
That gives us more breathing space to focus on value creation for our investors and increase CapEx to expand operations.
Trump family’s BTC mining venture an ‘influencer endorsement’ event for the industry
Invezz: Recently, it was announced that Donald Trump’s sons are partnering with Hut 8 for a new Bitcoin mining venture. As a player in the sector, how significant is this development?
This partnership shows that the sector is rapidly growing in light of the recent and possibly coming regulatory changes.
The industry expects new significant demand drivers, and this inevitably attracts the attention of the new players eyeing to capture profits.
I think competition is great news because it will enable more innovation in the sector and raise standards for the benefit of our clients in the long run.
This also signifies even further legitimization of the industry and serves as the mining’s own “influencer endorsement” event.
On institutional investor interest in BTC and mining
Invezz: GoMining recently announced the launch of the $100m Alpha Blocks Fund. Do you think institutions are ready to invest in Bitcoin mining?
Institutional investors are increasingly interested in BTC and mining.
For example, EY-Parthenon and Coinbase surveyed 352 firms, over 80% of which plan to increase their crypto exposure.
Through GoMining Institutional’s Alpha Blocks fund, institutional investors can access structured mining-backed yields with two investment strategies.
We focused on ensuring the transparency of traditional markets and robust security, so we established a closed-ended limited partnership domiciled in Delaware and partnered with BitGo, a leading institutional custodian.
GoMining Institutional will expand its product offerings with tokenized fixed-yield funds and debt products, creating real yields and giving direct exposure to BTC mining instead of traditional equity investments.
Our approach is forward-looking, and it has the potential to unlock a whole new asset class for institutional investors, uniting the longstanding practices of TradFi and the innovative yield products of the crypto space.
Tax break for miners to solidify US mining’s global leadership
Invezz: With the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, how have recent regulatory shifts impacted Bitcoin mining? What policies would best support domestic mining operations?
The Trump administration started a new age in crypto development, clarifying previously vague legal areas and serving as a key demand driver for the mining industry.
This creates a justified optimism in the sector. In the future, the federal government will solidify the US mining sector’s global leadership if it creates a national framework for crypto regulations and introduces tax breaks for miners.
Invezz: Recent bitcoin mining has cut mining rewards by half and squeezed the industry’s profit margin, making it tough for smaller players to compete with big operations. Your thoughts?
Bitcoin mining continues to be very profitable, and halvings are always priced in.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and proposed state reserves reinforced BTC’s credibility among institutional investors, who will drive up demand and prices in an environment with tight supply.
Another angle of upward demand pressure is the introduction of state-level legislative mechanisms to allow the investment of public funds in Bitcoin.
Why could it get difficult for smaller players in Bitcoin mining to operate?
The result will be a new equilibrium in the long run. Smaller players and individual miners will indeed find it harder to compete: the economies of scale are at work now.
Large miners can also diversify into AI computing and work on optimizing the costs of mining facilities, further enhancing profits.
The best approach for them is to participate in large mining pool operations.
GoMining is the leading platform for that, and we have the computing power and expertise to deliver the best returns while preserving the decentralized spirit of crypto.
Invezz: There are many different models of the cost-to-mine BTC. Could you share whether mining is still viable for smaller players or if industry consolidation is inevitable?
The average mining cost fluctuates around $90,000 per BTC, according to MacroMicro’s latest estimates.
Another prominent model, the Difficulty Regression Model from Glassnode, indicates that production costs are approximately $33,000 per BTC.
Cost-to-mine figures often do not tell the whole story. A lot depends on electricity costs, but labour and hardware costs are also a crucial part of the equation.
Consolidation, at least partially, is inevitable, and it is a healthy sign of a maturing industry.
Barriers to mining profitability are now higher, as large miners possess sophisticated technology and capital to build and operate data centers.
To unlock access to the economies of scale, smaller players have to eye consolidated options like pool mining.
On BTC mining’s high energy consumption and steps to ensure sustainability
Invezz: Bitcoin mining is often criticized for its high energy consumption. How does GoMining ensure sustainability in its operations?
Almost 100% of our fleet is powered by electricity from hydropower plants, which is a renewable source of energy.
Our scale of electricity consumption allows us to bring up mitigation strategies to ensure sustainability.
Innovations such as crypto mining and renewable energy are complementary, and data centers sometimes become key consumers of renewable energy.
As a member of the Bitcoin Mining Council, we also work on finding and implementing solutions to lower energy consumption. Improved environmental standards are a priority for our industry.
Invezz: Rising electricity costs have squeezed mining profitability. How are you hedging against energy price volatility?
We are strategic about choosing locations for data centers, and a reliable supply of inexpensive electricity is an important factor.
Electricity prices are very volatile throughout the day, and we surely take this volatility into account.
Everybody in GoMining has access to very competitive electricity prices due to the large scale of bulk purchases by our team.
In various regions, we, like many large miners, work with peak hours of electrical energy load and power purchase agreements to ensure a stable and smooth price schedule.
Despite electricity costs rising, the mining business’ margin remains positive.
How mining infra can be used for AI to capture additional revenues
Invezz: More mining firms are pivoting or diversifying into AI-related tasks. Is this a short-term trend or a fundamental shift in the business model? Could Bitcoin mining and AI become symbiotic industries?
Bitcoin mining and AI are symbiotic since they essentially require the same equipment.
Both are also capital-intensive and require financial acumen to build data centers and technical expertise to run them.
As miners, we can provide ready-made infrastructure for AI and high-performance computing while capturing additional revenues.
It only adds to the stability of our business model in the long term because it diversifies the range of tasks we can perform on our hardware.
Besides, small miners will no longer be dependent on BTC price fluctuations and can switch to more profitable tasks in case the price dips.
This additional revenue stream bolsters Bitcoin mining’s economic appeal and strengthens the resilience of the mining business models by diversifying income sources.
On more states introducing BTC reserve bills
Invezz: Texas, Florida, and New Hampshire are pushing their own Bitcoin reserves. How could this reshape competition among states in terms of mining incentives and regulations?
It is inspiring to see how US states tap into the potential of new technologies.
As of today, 28 state legislatures have already introduced Bitcoin reserve bills, with several gaining momentum.
For now, the reserves would start with seized Bitcoins, but with many targeting Bitcoin stockpiles to be as much as 10% of public funds, a supply of compliant, traceable, and clean Bitcoins is an absolute must.
We expect more transparency in the legal framework, energy agreements, permits to build data centers, and tax breaks, and in return, miners will bring investment, employment, and technological know-how.
A recently announced pause on steep US tariffs for certain Chinese electronics, including smartphones and laptops, appears to be merely a temporary reprieve, according to top administration officials.
Former President Donald Trump emphatically signaled that these key technology sectors are far from clear of trade pressures, promising further action amidst the ongoing economic friction between Washington and Beijing.
The White House had seemingly offered an olive branch on Friday, excluding a range of popular electronic goods from the punishing reciprocal tariffs levied against China.
This move initially sparked optimism on Wall Street, with expectations of a market recovery.
Shares in tech giants like Apple and chip manufacturer Nvidia were poised for gains following the news that tariffs on their crucial imports would be lifted for a 90-day period.
However, the sense of relief proved ephemeral. By Sunday, the administration’s messaging shifted dramatically, reasserting a hardline stance.
No ‘getting off the hook’: Trump promises new tariff scrutiny
In a characteristic social media post, Donald Trump directly addressed the exemption, seeking to reframe the narrative.
“There was no Tariff ‘exception’,” Trump stated on his Truth Social platform Sunday.
These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’
Beyond clarifying the temporary nature of the exemption, Trump pledged a more extensive trade offensive.
He announced plans for a national security trade investigation targeting the semiconductor industry and, more broadly, the “whole electronics supply chain.”
His rationale remained consistent with his administration’s focus on economic nationalism: “We will not be held hostage by other Countries, especially hostile trading Nations like China,” he added.
‘Made in America’ push: new tariffs loom for critical tech
Adding weight to Trump’s pronouncements, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the excluded electronic products are slated to face different, newly conceived duties within the near future.
Speaking Sunday, Lutnick detailed plans for what he termed “a special focus-type of tariff” specifically targeting smartphones, computers, and other electronics, anticipated within “a month or two.”
These measures, he explained, would run parallel to distinct sectoral tariffs aimed at semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, operating outside the framework of the broader reciprocal tariffs imposed on China.
“He’s saying they’re exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they’re included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two,” Lutnick clarified in an ABC interview. He explicitly linked this strategy to national security concerns and the goal of reshoring manufacturing.
“These are things that are national security, that we need to be made in America,” he predicted, suggesting the levies would incentivize domestic production.
This latest turn underscores the volatile nature of the US-China trade conflict under Trump, a dynamic characterized by escalating threats and abrupt policy shifts.
The tit-for-tat exchanges have seen US levies on Chinese goods climb significantly (reportedly reaching 145% in some contexts, countered by Beijing’s 125% on US imports), creating a climate of intense brinkmanship between the world’s two largest economies.
The constant back-and-forth has reverberated through financial markets. Trump’s tariff pronouncements and subsequent reversals have been blamed for triggering the most severe volatility on Wall Street since the height of the Covid pandemic in 2020.
Since Trump assumed office on January 20th, the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index has declined by over 10%.
Previous instances of tariff announcements followed by pauses – such as the 90-day reprieve offered to many trade partners (though notably not China) after initial broad declarations – have sent shockwaves, prompting investor flight from government bonds, dollar depreciation, and dips in consumer confidence.
Economists continue to warn that such broad tariff strategies risk hindering economic growth and stoking inflation.
Criticism mounts as China calls for cancellation
The administration’s approach continues to draw criticism. Speaking before Trump’s Sunday social media post, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren offered a sharp rebuke on ABC’s ‘This Week’: “There is no tariff policy – only chaos and corruption.”
Meanwhile, Beijing reacted cautiously to the initial Friday exemption announcement.
China’s commerce ministry described the move as merely “a small step,” reiterating its demand that the Trump administration should “completely cancel” its entire tariff strategy.
Amidst the escalating trade tensions, China has actively worked to bolster relationships elsewhere, with President Xi Jinping scheduled to visit Vietnam on Monday at the start of a tour through Southeast Asia, signaling a strategic pivot towards regional partners.
The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, particularly towards China’s critical tech sector, thus remains a defining feature of the global economic landscape.
Exporters in India, the biggest supplier of shrimp to the US, say that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could endanger a large number of containers of the frozen delicacy and disrupt global shipments.
Ecuadorian exporters state that their country will benefit due to lower tariffs on shrimp, as it is their most important export after oil. This is despite Ecuador being thousands of kilometers closer to the United States than India.
According to the report, tariffs could endanger 2,000 containers of shrimps from Indian ports.
Offer prices reduced
As uncertainty causes demand to decrease, Indian exporters have reduced offer prices by 10% and farmers are experiencing a drying up of demand due to the tariffs.
S.V.L. Pathi Raju, a 60 year old shrimp farmer from India’s coastal Andhra Pradesh, was quoted in the report:
We are suffering huge losses.
Raju and other families in the remote village of Ganapavaram are struggling with decreasing sales to exporters. “We are uncertain who can find a solution to our pricing problems,” Raju added.
Additionally, the cost of shrimp feed and rental fees for land with saline ponds are significant burdens for many.
Uppalapati Nagaraju, another 60-year-old farmer, expressed uncertainty about sustaining prices.
He admitted being completely unaware of the concept of tariffs and stated that had he known about them, he would not have started his cultivation.
He regrets starting shrimp cultivation only 15 days before the tariff news, due to unpredictable demand from exporters.
Exporters remain cautious
The exporters are nervous because of the current 10% tariff rate, even though Trump has delayed the 26% rate until July.
The US and China have emerged as key players in India’s thriving seafood export industry, contributing significantly to the record-breaking figures achieved last year.
In 2024, India’s seafood exports reached an all-time high of $7.3 billion, with a total volume of 1.8 million metric tons.
This remarkable achievement underscores the growing demand for Indian seafood in major international markets, particularly the US and China.
The burgeoning trade relationship between India and these two economic powerhouses had played a pivotal role in propelling the Indian seafood sector to new heights.
Andhra Pradesh’s 300,000 shrimp farmers were the primary contributors to the $2.5 billion in seafood exports to the US last year, with shrimp being the main export and the state accounting for 92% of India’s total seafood exports, according to the Reuters report.
Other options
A state government panel, tasked with evaluating the impact of tariffs and exploring ways to increase exports to countries like China, now includes members from the industry.
Ecuadorian producers shipped $1.55 billion worth of shrimp in 2024, but they are less optimistic about the future.
Indian exporters fear that Ecuador will have a competitive edge due to the planned 10% tariff rate for the South American nation.
This is especially concerning since Ecuador is much closer to the US, which is its second-biggest market for shrimp.
According to the report, India will be forced to find other markets, like China and the European Union, where Ecuador also sells its products. This will put more pressure on Ecuador’s market share in those regions.
The US dollar has been the anchor of the global financial system for decades now. But in recent weeks, market behaviour has started to tell a different story.
As President Donald Trump continues to double down on tariffs and policy threats, capital is beginning to move elsewhere.
What used to be as the safe haven currency is now treated as a liability. And while investors are losing their confidence in the dollar, the euro is moving in the opposite way.
You don’t usually see that outside of wars or financial crises. But now, serious discussions are emerging around whether the US dollar could realistically be replaced as the world’s reserve currency.
What just happened to the US dollar?
On Friday, April 11, the US dollar fell to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies.
It has dropped close to 10% since the beginning of the year. The euro alone has gained 9% since late February, reaching 1.14 dollars. Traders call it one of the sharpest shifts in currency markets since 2008.
The stock market hasn’t fared better. The “Sell America” trade has gained momentum in past weeks. Nearly $5 trillion has been wiped off US equity valuations over this period.
The bond market, which is usually a safe haven during volatility, is no longer behaving like one.
The yield on 30-year US Treasuries jumped from 4.4 to 4.8% in just one week, the sharpest rise since 1982.
This isn’t a normal market correction. It’s a rare moment where both US equities and Treasuries are falling together.
That usually only happens when investors begin to lose faith in the system itself.
Central banks are starting to diversify. Investors are moving into euros, yen, gold and Swiss francs. Even Canada and Australia are seeing mild bumps in currency demand.
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said this week that Europe must be ready for anything, including scenarios where dollar access is restricted or trust in US commitments weakens.
Her message to EU leaders was blunt: stop waiting.
Has Trump accelerated the decline?
Yes. What used to be called the “exorbitant privilege” of the US, that was the ability to borrow cheaply because the world wants your currency, is now starting to look more like a liability.
Some aides reportedly want to convert short-term Treasuries into 100-year bonds with extra taxes on foreign holders. Others speak openly about a modern version of the Plaza Accord to devalue the dollar by force.
This is economic brinkmanship. And markets are responding accordingly.
Former US Treasury official Mark Sobel, says that while there is no viable alternative to the dollar today, Trump is undermining the institutional foundations that made dollar dominance possible in the first place.
The world no longer assumes that the US will act responsibly in a crisis. That’s new.
Can the euro fill the gap?
In order for another currency to overtake the silverback, a few requirements must be met, at least in theory. One of the biggest examples is functioning as the dominant global foreign exchange reserve currency.
The eurozone’s entire government debt stock is just under €13 trillion, and only €4 trillion of that qualifies as safe by central bank standards.
In addition, there is no unified eurobond market. Cross-border banking in the EU is still inefficient. And during crises, it’s still the Fed that provides global liquidity through swap lines.
Nevertheless, there might still be hope for Europe. The euro’s recent strength has been backed by a realignment in European policy.
Germany is relaxing its fiscal rules. The EU plans to spend more than 800 billion euros on defence by 2030. This would provide a sense of legitimacy in the euro.
If executed, this would create more euro-denominated assets for the world to hold. It would also deepen eurozone capital markets, which have always been too fragmented to rival US Treasuries.
So while the euro is rising, it’s not ready to take over. At least not yet.
What’s the plan for the euro?
The dollar is not going to disappear from the global system. It still underpins energy trade, global debt markets, and central bank reserves.
But it is no longer alone. We are moving toward a more fragmented, multipolar financial order.
The euro is the most likely challenger, but it needs political backing and coherent strategy.
Several leading economists have laid out what Europe would need to do. Expanding the pool of euro-denominated safe assets is an essential first step.
Then, the EU must build euro swap networks that mirror the Fed’s emergency lending to foreign banks, and push for more trade invoicing in euros, especially in green energy and critical minerals.
Lagarde has echoed this vision, saying the euro can become the currency of the green transition.
That’s not just about branding. It’s about creating a new foundation for value, just like oil did for the dollar. Already, most green bonds globally are denominated in euros.
If Europe can price more of the world’s clean technology and infrastructure in euros, its role could grow naturally. Maybe not by overtaking the dollar, but by reducing the world’s over-reliance on it.
A likely scenario
Yes, the US dollar is slowly losing the conditions that uphold its reserve status. And no, no other currency is ready to replace it, yet.
What we’re seeing is not an abrupt collapse, but a gradual shift toward a multipolar reserve system.
This is a system where the euro is gaining traction in European trade and green finance.
The renminbi continues to extend its influence through Belt and Road economies. And finally, the yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar serve their respective regions and functions within the system.
China’s exports jumped by 12.4% in March, hitting a five-month high as manufacturers raced to ship goods ahead of the latest round of US tariffs.
The surge far exceeded economists’ expectations of 4.4% growth and marked a sharp turnaround from the 3% fall recorded in February.
The rise was attributed in part to the timing of the lunar new year, which fell in early February this year.
Factories ramped up production once the holiday ended, flooding ports with shipments before tariffs took hold.
However, economists cautioned that this boost would likely prove temporary, as US-China trade tensions continue to escalate.
“Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of ‘Liberation Day’,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.
But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters. We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.
G7 and emerging markets drive export rebound
By destination, China’s export gains were widespread. Exports to the United States rose 9.1% year-on-year in March, a sharp reversal from the 9.8% decline in February.
Shipments to the United Kingdom jumped by 16.3%, following a 13.9% drop the previous month. Exports to the European Union also recovered, up 10.3% after falling 11.5% in February.
Emerging markets provided further momentum. Exports to Africa soared by 37%, while shipments to ASEAN countries climbed 11.6%.
Unlike other regions, ASEAN-bound exports had not dipped during the holiday period, providing a steady flow of trade.
Yet the rebound faces growing headwinds as the US administration prepares to tighten its grip on Chinese imports.
The White House recently clarified that exemptions on certain electronics products would be short-lived, with new tariffs on semiconductors and consumer electronics expected soon.
Temporary tariff relief offers little comfort
Kelvin Lam, senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that a brief reprieve on electronics tariffs, announced late Friday, might give Chinese exporters some breathing room.
However, he warned that the relief was only temporary and limited in scope.
“The temporary relief for the electronics sector may offer some breathing room for Chinese exporters before the new tariffs come into effect. We expect more clarity on the new tariff rates once the Section 232 Investigation concludes — with a likely range of 10% to 125%, according to US Commerce Secretary,” he said.
The existing 20% tariff linked to China’s role in the fentanyl trade remains in place.
The US and China have slapped punishingly high tariffs on each other’s imports, escalating their trade conflict.
While Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of several planned global tariffs, he simultaneously hiked duties on Chinese goods to 145%.
Beijing hit back, raising its own tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in response to Washington’s latest moves.
However, US officials made clear over the weekend that the reprieve would be short-lived. Trump himself warned that no one was “getting off the hook.”
“There was no Tariff ‘exception,’” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Sunday. “These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they’re just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’”
Trump also pledged to launch a national security investigation into the semiconductor industry and the broader electronics supply chain. “We will not be held hostage by other countries, especially hostile trading nations like China,” he declared.
Xi Jinping seeks Southeast Asia lifeline
Amid the rising tariff pressure, Chinese president Xi Jinping is turning to Southeast Asia to shore up trade ties.
Kicking off a three-nation trip in Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, Xi called for deeper cooperation on supply chains, technology, and green economy initiatives.
In an article published in Vietnam’s Communist Party newspaper Nhandan ahead of his visit on Monday, Xi wrote: “The two sides should strengthen cooperation in production and supply chains.”
Vietnam, facing the prospect of a 46% US tariff hike in July once a global moratorium expires, has been eager to solidify its role as a regional manufacturing hub.
Xi’s push for closer ties with Hanoi highlights Beijing’s urgency to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on the increasingly hostile US market.
Meme coins remained under pressure this month as market participants watched the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Bitcoin price was trading at $84,000 on Monday, while the market cap of all coins remained at $2.7 trillion. This article looks at three key crypto tokens: Shiba Inu (SHIB), Pepe coin (PEPE), and Ripple (XRP).
Shiba Inu price prediction
SHIB price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months as the crypto market imploded. It dropped from a high of $0.00003337b in December last year to the current $0.00001232.
The daily chart shows that the SHIB price bottomed at $0.00001072, a crucial level since it was also its lowest swing in August last year. That is a sign that the token has formed a giant double-bottom pattern, a popular bullish reversal sign whose neckline is at $0.00003335, up by 170% from the current level.
Shiba Inu price has also formed a small double-bottom pattern, its lowest swing on March 11 and April 9. The neckline of this pattern is at $0.00001560. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the token will bounce back in the next few days, with the next point to watch being at $0.00001560, up by over 26% from the current level.
A break above the double-top’s neckline at $0.00001560 will point to further gains, potentially to the 61.8% retracement point at $0.00001943, up by over 60% from the current level. The bullish view will be invalidated if the price drops below the key support at $0.00001072 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
The daily chart reveals that the value of Pepe has crashed in the past few months, moving from a high of $0.00002835 in December to the current $0.00000745. It bottomed at the key support at $0.000005853, its lowest point in August last year, March 11, and April 7. That is a sign that the coin has formed a triple-bottom pattern, a popular bullish sign in the market.
Pepe coin prices have also formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, a popular bullish signal in the market. An inverse H&S pattern is made up of a head, two shoulders, and a slanted neckline.
Pepe price is attempting to move above the neckline and the 50-day moving average. Therefore,a break above the neckline and will point to more gains, with the next point to watch being at $0.00001075, the 23.6% retracement point, which is about 45% above the current level.
XRP token price has bounced back in the past few days, moving from a low of $1.6115 to a high of $2.1325. It has moved slightly above the key resistance point at $1.9687, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
XRP has found substantial resistance at the 50-day moving average. It needs to move above that level to validate the ongoing rebound. Most importantly, Ripple must surge above the shoulders section at $3.4 to invalidate the bearish outlook of the head and shoulders pattern.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the XRP price will retreat in the coming days and potentially retest the support at $1.9687. A drop below that level will point to more downside, with the next point to watch being at $1.6115.
Pi Network price has bounced back in the past few days as investors bought the dip. The coin rose to a high of $0.7595, its highest level since April 5. It has soared by about 90% from its lowest point this year. Therefore, this Pi coin price forecast explains what to expect in the coming days and what to expect.
Pi Network price technical analysis
The 4H chart shows that the value of Pi initially peaked at $3 in February following its highly anticipated mainnet launch. This surge happened as some investors bought the coin in the open market and many of the pioneers refused to sell their coins.
The coin then suffered a harsh reversal, with its price moving from a high of $3 and bottoming at $0.3980 earlier this month. Its recent rebound happened after it slowly formed a falling wedge pattern comprising two falling and converging trendlines. In most cases, this pattern often leads to more upside.
Pi Network price has also moved slightly above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling that bulls are in control for now. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Pi Network price will jump to the psychological point at $1, up by 30% above the current level.
The risk, however, is that Pi coin has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is shown in black on the chart above. This pattern is comprised of two ascending and converging trendlines, with the bearish breakdown happening when the two lines are nearing their converging points. If the wedge pattern works well, the coin may drop to this month’s low of $0.3980, which is down by almost 50% from the current level.
Pi Network has several key risks and opportunities that may impact its price in the coming weeks. The first opportunity is that the token may get at least one tier-1 exchange listing in the coming months. Some of the potential exchanges that may list it are the likes of Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, and Kraken.
An exchange listing by one of these exchanges would push its price up sharply as it would validate the token. Just recently, Orca, a top Solana DEX, surged by 200% in a single session after Upbit listed it.
Second, the other opportunity is its growing ecosystem. In a statement last week, the developers noted that it had over 125,000 registered sellers in its first PiFest event after the mainnet launch. 58,000 of these were active sellers, a sign that the network can, indeed, power commerce.
The first PiFest in Open Network showcased record participation. A total of over 125,000 registered sellers—including over 58,000 active sellers—and 1.8 million Pioneers have used Map of Pi, highlighting real-world Pi utility globally. minepi.com/blog/open-netw…
However, the Pi Network has substantial risks. First, it is a highly inflationary token as it will continue emitting millions of tokens in the coming months. Pi will unlock 111 million coins this month and over 1.56 million tokens in the next 12 months. These tokens are worth $1.17 billion, a significant amount since Pi has a market cap of over $5 billion.
The other risk is that insiders hold most of the tokens. Data shows that Pi Foundation holds at least 68 billion Pi coins valued at over $50 billion. This means that the coin ownership is highly concentrated among insiders, which is risky. High concentration risks include market manipulation, dumping risk, and decentralization risks.
The Xiaomi stock price has pulled back in the past few weeks as investors focus on the ongoing economic war between the United States and China. After surging to $26 in March, the stock has plummeted by over 26% to the current $19. This article explores why the Xiaomi share price could rebound in Hong Kong.
Xiaomi’s business is thriving, but faces a key risk
Xiaomi share price has crashed in the past few weeks as tensions between the US and China have escalated. These tensions have led to a sharp increase in tariffs between the two superpowers, with the US charging Chinese goods a 145% tariff. China has responded by announcing a 125% tariff.
On the positive side for Xiaomi, it has little business in the United States, with most of its sales coming from China and the emerging market, especially in China. Available data shows that the company has a 1% market share in the US. It also manufactures most of its products in China.
Therefore, from a tariff perspective, Xiaomi is largely insulated from the ongoing trade war. Even if it had a market share in the US, its products would not be tariffed since Donald Trump announced that smartphones would be exemptfrom the tariffs.
However, Xiaomi faces a major risk in that the company still uses American-made parts, especially from Qualcomm. Qualcomm’s SnapDragon’s chips power its most advanced smartphones, with the rest coming from MediaTek, a Taiwanese company.
Therefore, the ongoing trade war means that Trump can turn its screws on Xiaomi by banning sales of chips to the firm. This action would mirror what he did with Huawei, a company that once dominated the smartphone market. While Huawei has rebuilt its business, its market share has shrunk considerably in the past few years.
The other risk is that Xiaomi has entered the electric vehicle industry, making it a direct competitor to Elon Musk’s Tesla. Musk is one of Trump’s top advisors, meaning that he could engineer some actions against the company, including sanctioning top suppliers like Infineon.
The most recent results showed that Xiaomi’s business is doing well. Its results showed that revenues jumped to over 109 billion RMB in the fourth quarter from 73 billion in the same period last year, a 48.8% increase.
The gross profit soared by over 43% to 22.45 billion RMB, while the profit for the period surged by 90% to 8.9 billion RMB. The annual revenue, gross profit, and profit soared by over 35%, 22.5%, and 34.9%, respectively.
These numbers are impressive because they came at a time when Apple, the biggest player in the industry is slowing. Apple’s annual revenue rose by just 2.02% in 2024, down from 2.8% in 2023 and 7.79% a year earlier.
Further, Apple has struggled to have a hit product in the past few years, with its Vision Pro’s sales being negligible. Xiaomi has launched a highly popular EV, and just recently, it raised over $5.5 billion to expand the division.
The daily chart shows that the Xiaomi share price peaked at $59.3 earlier this year and then plunged to $35.8 as the trade war escalated. It has now moved above the 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bulls remain in control. It also formed a small bullish island reversal pattern.
Xiaomi stock price has moved to the major S/R level of the Murrey Math Lines. Therefore, the shares will likely continue rising as bulls target the strong pivot reverse point at $50, up by about 15% above the current level.
