Author

admin

Browsing

Shareholders of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton voted on Thursday to allow Bernard Arnault to remain at the helm of the company until the age of 85, extending the reign of the man who built the world’s most valuable luxury goods empire.

The move, approved with more than 99% support, raises the maximum age limit for the group’s chairman and chief executive from 80 to 85.

This marks the second such amendment in recent years.

In 2022, LVMH lifted the retirement threshold from 75 to 80.

With Thursday’s vote, the board has further solidified Arnault’s position at the top, even as investors grow increasingly uneasy over the absence of a clearly communicated succession plan.

A meticulously constructed empire

Bernard Arnault, 76, has led LVMH since 1989, steering it through decades of aggressive expansion, blockbuster acquisitions, and surging demand for luxury goods.

From the takeover of Christian Dior and Louis Vuitton to the $16 billion acquisition of Tiffany & Co in 2021, Arnault has crafted a 75-brand empire that spans fashion, jewellery, wine, spirits, hospitality, and more.

His hands-on leadership style—inspecting store layouts, micromanaging deals, and ensuring consistent brand storytelling—has helped deliver exceptional shareholder returns.

According to LSEG data, LVMH has generated an average total return of 13% per year under its leadership, far outpacing the 3% return of the STOXX 600 over the same period.

Yet the very qualities that have made LVMH a success are now sources of concern.

Investors worry that Arnault’s immense influence means that his sudden departure could trigger a sharp decline in LVMH’s share price.

At the same time, the company’s heavy reliance on a single individual introduces significant long-term risk.

The family behind the façade

All five of Arnault’s children are now deeply embedded in the group’s leadership structure.

Delphine Arnault, 50, serves as CEO of Christian Dior and is widely seen as a leading candidate.

Antoine Arnault, 47, oversees communications, image, and sustainability, and chairs Loro Piana.

The younger siblings—Alexandre, 33, Frédéric, 30, and Jean, 26—hold key roles at Tiffany & Co, TAG Heuer, and the watches division, respectively.

Each child holds a senior position, and four of them sit on LVMH’s board. But despite their prominence, Arnault has offered no public indication of who will eventually take over.

The family’s involvement gives the appearance of a tightly managed succession-in-training, yet no formal plan has been communicated.

“The market has long priced in the ‘Arnault premium,’” said a Paris-based luxury analyst.

“But that also means there’s enormous key-man risk. Investors want to know what LVMH looks like in a post-Arnault world.”

Opaque planning fuels uncertainty

Some shareholders have begun to question the group’s lack of transparency.

Two investors told Reuters Breakingviews that they are unaware of any formal emergency or long-term succession plan.

LVMH’s most recent governance report only briefly references a “review of succession planning,” offering no further detail.

In 2022, changes were made to LVMH’s controlling structure to ensure long-term family control.

Arnault restructured the family holding company, Agache SCA, stipulating that the five children would share equal ownership through Agache Commandité.

The shares cannot be sold or transferred for 30 years, nor can they pass outside the family or their direct descendants.

This arrangement effectively guarantees that LVMH will remain under family control for the foreseeable future, but it does not answer the central question of who will lead.

Key decisions in Agache now require unanimous agreement from all five siblings—a setup that could prove cumbersome or fractious in time.

Lessons from luxury rivals

LVMH’s opaque approach to succession contrasts with other family-led luxury firms.

François Pinault, founder of rival group Kering, passed his holding company to his three children in 2001.

In 2005, his son François-Henri Pinault formally took charge as CEO at age 42, providing clear continuity for investors and the business alike.

By comparison, LVMH has opted for incremental changes that extend Bernard Arnault’s grip on the company without offering the market a clear view of what comes next.

“Succession isn’t just about naming a CEO,” said Irina Curbelo, co-founder of Percheron Advisory. “It’s about preserving the essence of the brand empire, and ensuring that family governance doesn’t turn into a bottleneck.”

No imminent change, but longer-term risks remain

Despite growing concerns, few doubt Arnault’s ability to continue leading LVMH in the short term.

He remains mentally sharp, fully engaged, and evidently trusted by the board and shareholders.

But with the latest age-limit amendment pushing any handover potentially another decade away, governance questions are unlikely to fade.

As the luxury industry becomes more competitive and globally complex, the stakes of an unclear succession only grow.

The question facing LVMH now is not just who will succeed Bernard Arnault, but when, how, and whether the group will be prepared when the moment inevitably arrives.

The post As LVMH extends Arnault’s reign, succession concerns still linger: here’s why investors worry appeared first on Invezz

Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: HTZ) is up nearly 50% in premarket on Thursday after billionaire investor Bill Ackman announced a sizable stake in the car rental company.

Ackman had built a 4.1% stake in Hertz last year. Now, he has increased that stake to 19.8%, as per a source that spoke with CNBC on the condition of anonymity this week.

Ackman’s Pershing Square is now the second largest shareholder of HTZ, shares of which, including today’s gains, are now up more than 100% versus their year-to-date low.

Hertz financial strength doesn’t inspire confidence

Bill Ackman’s sizable stake in Hertz stock reflects his confidence in what the future holds for this car rental company. However, there’s plenty that suggests HTZ remains a high-risk investment.

For starts, the Nasdaq listed firm lost a total of $2.9 billion in 2024. So, Hertz’ financial health remains shaky, and despite Ackman’s confidence, these losses indicate deeper structural issues.

Additionally, Hertz made a big bet on EVs, particularly Teslas, but that move backfired. The firm faced significant depreciation costs and had to sell of a large portion of its electric vehicle fleet at a loss.

And it’s not like Hertz shares currently pay a dividend to make it any easier to look past the signs of weakness in its financials.

Hertz continues to be a highly volatile stock

Investors should remain cautious on Hertz stock despite Ackman’s announcement as it has a history of extreme stock price swings, dating back to its meme stock surge after bankruptcy in 2020.

While the billionaire’s investment has triggered a short-term rally in HTZ shares, it’s worth noting that the car rental company remains highly volatile and, therefore, risky to own, especially now that fears of a recession ahead have been brewing again.

Finally, the car rental industry highly competitive, with companies like Enterprise and Avis maintaining strong market positions. Hertz’s financial instability and failed EV strategy puts it an even bigger disadvantage compared to rivals.

Wall Street disagrees with Ackman on HTZ shares

Bill Ackman’s increased stake may signal optimism, but the underlying financial struggles, failed EV strategy, and competitive pressures suggest Hertz is a high-risk investment for 2025.

In fact, Wall Street analysts disagree with Ackman on Hertz stock as well. The consensus rating on HTZ shares currently sits at “underweight” with the mean target of $3.31 indicating potential downside of more than 50% from current levels.

What’s also worth mentioning is that Ackman, while a globally revered investor, has made bets in the past that didn’t quite pan out. For example, he loaded up on nearly 20 million shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals at $171 in 2015.

But the company soon became embroiled in accounting scandals and congressional investigations over its drug pricing practices, causing its stock to plummet to just $27, leading to about a $2.0 billion loss for the founder and chief executive of Pershing Square.  

The post Bill Ackman raises stake in Hertz: here’s why I’m not as optimistic appeared first on Invezz

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will lower its global growth predictions due to rising trade tensions and market volatility, but no global recession is likely, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday.

Georgieva spoke at the IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings, emphasising the economic cost of what she described as a global trade system reboot.

The unpredictable shifts in trade policies

According to Reuters, the IMF chief portrayed a picture of a global economy roiled by unanticipated adjustments in trade policy.

“Disruptions entail costs,” Georgieva said in prepared remarks, indicating that the IMF’s updated outlook will show “notable markdowns” in growth, as well as higher inflation in some regions.

She quoted The Wizard of Oz, saying, “We’re not in Kansas anymore,” emphasising the unprecedented amount of uncertainty.

She warned that the volatility had already triggered stress signals in financial markets, citing recent changes in the US Treasury yield curve.

Tariff hikes, global fallout

According to Georgieva, recent tariffs imposed by the United States, as well as retaliatory measures taken by China and the European Union, have increased global economic tension.

These steps have raised US effective tariff rates to levels not seen in decades, provoking countermeasures that are now affecting economies around the world.

“As the giants face off, smaller countries are caught in the cross currents,” according to Georgieva.

Because the United States, the European Union, and China are the world’s top three importers, their tensions have far-reaching consequences for smaller and emerging economies, particularly those already vulnerable to tightening financial circumstances.

Short-term pain and long-term risks

While some large economies may get a brief boost from domestic investment in reaction to tariffs, Georgieva cautioned that the advantages are slow to emerge and unevenly distributed.

Long-term protectionism, on the other hand, will almost certainly harm productivity and creativity.

“Protectionism erodes productivity over the long run, especially in smaller economies,” Georgieva said.

She claimed that by protecting industries from foreign competition, governments risk impeding innovation and entrepreneurship.

Georgieva also urged governments to remain committed to economic and financial reforms, citing the need for credible and nimble monetary policy, effective financial oversight, and the safeguarding of aid flows to low-income countries.

She also emphasised the need for exchange rate flexibility for emerging nations, claiming that it would assist them in navigating recurring global shocks.

Georgieva issued a clear call to diplomacy, encouraging the world’s leading economies to return to the negotiating table and establish a trade agreement that promotes openness while reversing the growth of tariffs and nontariff barriers.

“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she responded. “All countries, large and small alike, can and should play their part to strengthen the global economy in an era of more frequent and severe shocks.”

The post IMF Chief warns of economic uncertainty amid US-China-EU trade tensions appeared first on Invezz

Petrobras, Brazil’s state-run oil giant, has announced that the price of diesel sold to distributors will be reduced by an average of 0.12 real ($0.0205) per litre beginning Friday.

According to Reuters, the move follows recent drops in global oil prices and comes only two weeks after US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on several countries on April 2, causing additional uncertainty in global energy markets.

The move is Petrobras’ most recent pricing change as the business balances internal market dynamics with global economic trends.

According to the corporation, decreasing Brent crude prices and exchange rate fluctuations influenced the timing and extent of the cut.

Market-driven movement

Petrobras Chief Financial Officer Fernando Melgarejo explained the decision to Reuters, underlining the company’s commitment to data-driven pricing.

“We have a fundamentalist analysis of prices,” Melgarejo stated. “Within this analysis, we understand that the adjustment was appropriate at this moment, mainly due to the movement of the Brent.”

Brent crude, the global oil standard, has fallen in recent weeks as financial markets assess the potential impact of impending US tariffs.

Petrobras was forced to reconsider its diesel pricing policy as a result of the price decline and currency volatility in Brazil.

A conservative cut

While the drop provides some comfort to fuel distributors—and possibly to consumers—it was not as significant as some experts had anticipated.

According to Eduardo Oliveira de Melo, managing partner of Raion Consultoria, his firm anticipated a potential drop of up to 0.30 real per litre based on market conditions.

“Petrobras chose a cautious approach,” Oliveira de Melo said. “They’re likely watching for continued volatility and aiming to avoid major swings that could hurt their financial performance or undermine future pricing stability.”

Political and policy context

Speculation about a diesel price decrease arose soon after the tariff announcement in early April.

Brazil’s Mines and Energy Minister, Alexandre Silveira, reportedly raised the problem with Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard in recent days.

Over the last years, the government has taken an active interest in fuel pricing, particularly considering the influence that high transportation costs have on inflation and public attitudes.

While Petrobras has insisted on maintaining pricing autonomy, it is constantly under pressure to comply with larger national interests.

Impact and outlook

The diesel price decrease will go into effect on Friday and will be keenly monitored by transportation companies, fuel distributors, and government regulators.

While it may provide short-term comfort, the very modest reduction indicates Petrobras’ intention to proceed with caution in the face of uncertain global economic conditions.

Petrobras looks to be devoted to striking a balance between financial conservatism and market responsiveness.

The company’s pricing methodology, which is closely related to international benchmarks such as Brent, means that future changes—up or down—will most likely follow the world oil market’s overall trend.

The post Brazil’s Petrobras cuts diesel prices in response to falling crude prices appeared first on Invezz

The Asian Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) market experienced a decline in prices this week, which spurred opportunistic buying activity from some Asian importers. 

The lower prices presented an attractive opportunity for these importers to secure LNG cargoes at a more favorable cost, potentially leading to increased imports in the near term. 

“The drop was driven by softer downstream demand, though supply disruptions in Australia and Brunei slowed further drops in prices,” said Masanori Odaka, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst.

While some Asian importers moved quickly to lock in lower prices, others remained cautious amid market uncertainty, partly fueled by renewed concerns over trade tensions, as well as comfortable storage levels.

Despite unplanned outages in Norway, European LNG prices fell. US feedgas demand stayed strong as Calcasieu Pass started commercial operations, and this also contributed to the dip in LNG prices.

Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) June prices fell 2.4% to $11.4 per MMBtu, while Asian LNG derivatives prices for June decreased by 2% week-on-week to $11.4 per MMBtu on April 15.

Asia

The settlement price for Asian LNG in May was around $12.5 per MMBtu, according to Rystad Energy. This represents an 8.7% decrease from April 2025 prices, but a 29% increase compared to May 2024, the agency noted.

Some importers, including Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas), a Chinese importer not affiliated with a national oil company, and CPC Corporation, secured May-June cargoes at or below $11 per MMBtu.

The LNG market is bustling with activity from various Asian countries. 

South Korea’s Kogas is on the lookout for more LNG to be delivered between June 2025 and March 2026. 

Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s RPGCL has already secured LNG cargoes for delivery on May 15-16 and May 25-26. India’s GSPC was also in the market, searching for an LNG cargo to be delivered between May 10-31, Rystad said.

The Brunei LNG facility, a joint venture between the Brunei government, Shell, and Mitsubishi, experienced a supply disruption on April 11.

“Mild weather forecasts in the shoulder-month period will likely limit gas consumption in East Asian countries for the remainder of April,” Odaka said.

Day-ahead power prices in Japan for April 17 have decreased approximately 40% compared to last week. 

This coincides with a significant amount of planned maintenance in Japan across all fuel types, which will reduce available capacity by 18% in April and 15% in May compared to March 2025.

Source: Rystad Energy

Europe

European LNG prices decreased by 1.5% week-over-week to around $10.6 per MMBtu, maintaining an 80 to 90 cent discount to TTF prices.

The US Dollar Index dropped below 100 for the first time since July 2023, indicating a relative strengthening of the Euro and a basket of other currencies against the US Dollar.

Odaka added:

This may lead to different directions of gas prices, such as TTF, depending on whether they are USD or Euro-denominated, along with further clarity on European policy on storage targets.

Europe saw an 8.6% increase in overall gas flows, reaching 329.4 million cubic meters on April 14. 

This occurred despite unplanned outages at Aasta Hansteen, Dvalin, and Troll in Norway, which threatened supply disruptions. Underground storage levels also rose by 2.2% to 40.5 billion cubic meters, but remain 45% lower than last year, Rystad noted. 

“Most market participants with US-origin LNG volumes point their LNG cargoes to Europe, though volatility in the market and changing cross-basin spread may lead to these market participants redirecting their cargoes to Asia instead,” Odaka said.

Source: Rystad Energy

United States

On 15 April, the benchmark Henry Hub prices fell 3.8% week-on-week to $3.3 per MMBtu. At the time of writing, the price was at $3.255 per MMBtu, up 0.3%. 

Feedgas levels to US LNG terminals rose by 6.6%, reaching approximately 16.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) between April 8 and 14, Rystad Energy’s data showed.

The global LNG market’s supply constraints were further eased by Venture Global’s commencement of commercial operations at Calcasieu Pass LNG in Louisiana, despite the project’s prior sale of several cargoes on the spot market.

“Several regions in the US forecast above-average temperatures until late April, applying downward pressure for gas prices, though this will be offset by high feedgas levels to US LNG terminals,” Odaka noted.

The post Asian importers buy the dip as LNG market sees price corrections appeared first on Invezz

Globalization has long been regarded as an unstoppable wave in the world of international trade and cooperation, promoting economic growth and cultural exchanges all over the world.

However, in recent years, several obstacles have emerged that threaten to undercut decades of development.

According to a Statista report, the revival of nationalism and the protectionist measures are some of the factors altering the global trading landscape, prompting many to wonder if we have passed the apex of globalisation.

A terminal decline: the impact of the pandemic

The course of global trade has been anything but linear.

Following decades of stable expansion, the 2008 financial crisis exposed flaws in the system.

However, it was the COVID-19 outbreak that served as a watershed moment, plunging world trade to levels not seen since 2003.

The World Bank observed a significant drop in the trade-to-GDP ratio, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply networks that rely significantly on international collaboration.

A short-lived resurgence?

Despite the depressing circumstances, global trade showed a remarkable recovery following the pandemic.

By 2022, the trade-to-GDP ratio had risen to an astonishing 62.8%, indicating a recovery and return to pre-pandemic levels of activity.

However, this quick recovery was not without hurdles. In 2023, the percentage fell again to 58.5 per cent, indicating potential volatility in the global trading framework.

While some industries swiftly adapted to new rules, others struggled with ongoing supply chain disruptions and shifting demand.

Companies and governments alike recognised the importance of assessing and redesigning their supply chains to avoid the dangers associated with global dependencies.

The timetable for such changes is unknown as businesses navigate complex trade conditions and uncertain future regulations.

Nationalism and protectionism: emerging threats

As globalisation seeks to regain its foothold, the resurgence of nationalism poses considerable problems.

Politics in several regions have evolved toward protectionism, intending to prioritise domestic industries over international commerce.

In the United States, the Trump administration’s continuation of trade battles, including the imposition of new tariffs on a variety of imported commodities, has further undermined the free trade concept that had gained traction in previous decades.

These protectionist tactics are not restricted to the United States; countries all around the world are taking similar positions, changing tariffs, and instituting regulatory barriers that impede commerce.

This wave of nationalism not only impedes economic interoperability but also risks sparking retaliatory actions among trading partners, producing an unstable atmosphere that could lead to market fragmentation on a global scale.

The future of global trade: uncertainty looms

The future of globalisation is uncertain, as nationalistic sentiments rise and protectionist measures shape trade policy.

While it is difficult to anticipate the long-term consequences of the Trump administration’s current trade policy, many experts warn that the combination of new tariffs and shifting political priorities may leave a lasting impact on global trade dynamics.

The complexity of modern supply chains requires strategic planning and adaptability.

As businesses reconsider their foreign relationships, the option of shifting production closer to home or diversifying suppliers may become a popular trend.

However, this reconfiguration requires time and capital, which adds to the unpredictability in the immediate term.

The post Is globalization at a crossroads? Nationalism and protectionism threaten trade recovery appeared first on Invezz

The Czech Republic had achieved full independence from Russian oil supplies for the first time in its history, government officials announced on Thursday. 

This milestone was reached due to the completion of capacity upgrades on the TAL pipeline, which comes from the west, according to a Reuters report.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced in a televised news conference on Thursday that the first increased supplies of oil have been delivered via pipeline to the central oil depot in the Czech Republic.

Russian oil no longer needed

Fiala announced at the depot in Nelahozeves, 20 km north of Prague, “Our reliance on Russia for oil has come to an end after approximately 60 years.”

Fiala added:

For the first time in history, the Czech Republic is completely supplied by non-Russian oil, and fully supplied through western routes.

The Czech government has been trying to reduce its reliance on Russia for oil since the country invaded Ukraine. About half of the Czech Republic’s annual oil imports have come through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia for decades.

The Transalpine (TAL) pipeline, which transports oil from tankers in the Italian port of Trieste to Germany, was upgraded at the end of last year by Czech pipeline operator MERO. 

The oil is then fed into the Ingolstadt–Kralupy–Litvinov (IKL) pipeline to the Czech Republic.

Source: Reuters

The Czech Republic’s annual needs can now be met due to the TAL upgrade, which has increased the capacity available to 8 million tonnes per year.

More tankers secured

Orlen Unipetrol, a Czech refiner, has been using oil from state reserves to maintain production since the Druzhba pipeline halted supplies in March. 

The company is now preparing to switch to full supplies through the TAL pipeline, following a capacity increase.

The Litvinov refinery will begin processing Norwegian crude from the TAL pipeline upgrade next week, with the crude expected to arrive on Friday.

Last year, the Czech Republic imported 6.5 million tonnes of oil. Industry Ministry statistics show that 42% of the oil was imported via Druzhba. 

This is a decrease from the previous two years when up to 58% of the oil supply was Russian.

In 2024, the country acquired oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as well as Norway and Guyana, the latter two in smaller quantities.

Druzhba pipeline to remain

The MERO company has stated that it intended to maintain the Druzhba pipeline filled with crude oil. 

This action is being taken to accommodate potential future flows of oil, which could come from various sources. 

One such potential source is the Ukrainian port of Odesa, which could supply oil to the Druzhba pipeline.

Jaroslav Pantucek, the director of MERO, the Czech oil pipeline operator, reassured stakeholders on Thursday that the Druzhba pipeline remains operational and is prepared to resume oil transportation whenever necessary. 

Despite current geopolitical uncertainties and discussions surrounding its future, the pipeline’s infrastructure is sound and ready for use. 

Pantucek acknowledged that the future utilization of the Druzhba pipeline is currently under evaluation, with various factors and potential scenarios being considered. 

This evaluation likely involves analysing geopolitical developments, energy market trends, and the potential impact on energy security for the countries involved.

Hungary and Slovakia, both of which maintain pro-Moscow stances, are eager to continue receiving Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.

The post Czech Republic ends reliance on Russian oil after 60 years appeared first on Invezz

Eli Lilly’s experimental obesity pill, orforglipron, met its main goals in a closely watched late-stage trial, boosting the company’s standing in the fast-growing market for weight loss and diabetes treatments.

The results, announced Thursday, show the pill could offer a compelling, needle-free alternative to popular injections, potentially reshaping how millions of people manage chronic conditions.

Shares of Eli Lilly rose as much as 11% in premarket trading on Thursday as investors welcomed the results, which put the company a step ahead of rivals such as Novo Nordisk in developing an oral version of the lucrative GLP-1 class of drugs.

The US pharmaceutical giant reported that orforglipron helped patients with Type 2 diabetes achieve both weight loss and improved blood sugar control.

The trial, one of seven late-stage studies underway, also found the pill’s side effect profile to be largely manageable and in line with what is observed in injectable drugs already on the market.

A promising alternative to injections

At its highest dose, orforglipron led to an average weight loss of 7.9% — roughly 16 pounds — over 40 weeks.

Notably, patients had not plateaued in their weight loss by the end of the study, suggesting that longer treatment may yield further results.

This development is significant for patients seeking a more convenient alternative to injectables like Wegovy and Ozempic.

Pills are easier to manufacture and distribute at scale, which could help alleviate the persistent supply shortages that have plagued the market for injectable GLP-1 drugs.

CEO David Ricks emphasized the potential impact in a company statement:

We are pleased to see that our latest incretin medicine meets our expectations for safety and tolerability, glucose control, and weight loss. We look forward to additional data readouts later this year.”

Safety is in line with expectations

Side effects were mostly mild to moderate, with gastrointestinal symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea reported.

Around 8% of patients on the highest dose discontinued treatment due to side effects, which analysts say is within an acceptable range.

In comparison, injectable versions of the drug class tend to have similar or slightly lower discontinuation rates, though they are administered weekly rather than daily.

Analysts had expected discontinuation rates around 9%, indicating that the results came in close to forecast.

TD Cowen and other investment firms had anticipated that side effects could be marginally worse with a daily oral pill.

Mixed results on diabetes metric

Despite positive signs, orforglipron fell short of some analyst expectations when it came to lowering hemoglobin A1c, a key diabetes marker.

The pill reduced blood sugar levels by 1.3% to 1.6% across doses after 40 weeks, from a starting level of 8%.

This compares with reductions as high as 2.1% seen in some patients using Novo Nordisk’s injection Ozempic.

The result remains clinically meaningful, but the gap could influence prescribing patterns if physicians view injections as more effective for glucose control.

Still, the pill’s ease of use may be enough to offset that in patients prioritizing convenience.

Looking ahead to regulatory filings

Eli Lilly plans to file for regulatory approval for orforglipron in obesity by the end of 2025, with a diabetes filing expected in 2026.

The company is currently conducting five trials in diabetes and two in obesity, with more data expected later this year.

The pill is not a peptide-based drug, meaning it is absorbed more easily by the body and doesn’t require food restrictions, unlike Novo Nordisk’s diabetes pill Rybelsus.

This could make it more appealing to a broader patient population.

Analysts forecast the GLP-1 market could exceed $150 billion annually by the early 2030s, with oral drugs accounting for up to $50 billion.

Eli Lilly, already a leader with injectable drugs like Mounjaro, may solidify its dominance if orforglipron gains approval.

With its lead over competitors including AstraZeneca, Roche, Structure Therapeutics, and Viking Therapeutics, Eli Lilly is positioning itself to be the first to offer a widely available oral GLP-1 therapy — and reshape the landscape of chronic disease management.

The post Eli Lilly stock surges 11% on obesity pill’s success in first late-stage trial appeared first on Invezz

The European Central Bank on Thursday reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points, citing easing inflation and mounting risks to economic growth from trade tensions and business pessimism.

The move was in line with most expectations.

It marks the seventh rate cut over the past year as the ECB attempts to support the eurozone economy amid an increasingly fragile global backdrop.

The move lowers the ECB’s deposit rate to 2.25%, the lowest since early 2023.

It also reflects growing concerns within the bank over waning business confidence and the economic fallout from tariffs imposed by the United States.

“The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions,” the central bank said in its monetary policy statement.

‘Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms’

In a notable change in language, the ECB dropped its earlier assessment that interest rates were “meaningfully less restrictive” and acknowledged that a combination of factors could now weigh more heavily on the eurozone’s economic outlook.

“Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area,” it said.

The shift reflects the central bank’s view that current interest rate levels are now at the upper end of what it considers “neutral” — a rate neither stimulating nor constraining growth.

While this neutral range is loosely placed between 1.75% and 2.25%, policymakers have stressed that it is not a fixed benchmark.

ECB refrains from providing clear guidance while markets price in two more cuts

Despite the rate cut, the ECB offered no clear guidance on the path ahead.

Instead, it reaffirmed that future decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, depending on economic data.

Financial markets are pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025, and some analysts see room for a third, particularly if US tariffs and global financial volatility further weigh on the eurozone economy.

President Christine Lagarde is expected to emphasize these risks during her press conference.

She has previously estimated that trade tensions and the resulting confidence shock could trim as much as half a percentage point from eurozone growth — a significant hit for a region already growing at modest rates.

Lagarde is also likely to note the easing of inflationary pressures since the ECB’s last meeting in March.

A stronger euro, falling energy prices, and a slowing growth outlook have all contributed to a reduced inflation threat.

She may also point out that Chinese exports could further depress global prices if US tariffs force Beijing to redirect goods to Europe and other markets.

Euro retreats from highs but holds gains

Following the ECB’s announcement, the euro edged lower toward $1.13, slipping from recent highs last seen in early 2022.

Still, the currency remains up roughly 5% against the dollar so far in April, buoyed by shifting investor sentiment and growing expectations of increased defence spending in countries like Germany.

The ECB’s next steps will be closely watched as policymakers navigate a delicate balance between stabilizing inflation and shielding the economy from external shocks.

The post ECB cuts rates by 25 bps as inflation eases, but warns trade tensions cloud growth outlook appeared first on Invezz

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will lower its global growth predictions due to rising trade tensions and market volatility, but no global recession is likely, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday.

Georgieva spoke at the IMF headquarters in Washington ahead of next week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings, emphasising the economic cost of what she described as a global trade system reboot.

The unpredictable shifts in trade policies

According to Reuters, the IMF chief portrayed a picture of a global economy roiled by unanticipated adjustments in trade policy.

“Disruptions entail costs,” Georgieva said in prepared remarks, indicating that the IMF’s updated outlook will show “notable markdowns” in growth, as well as higher inflation in some regions.

She quoted The Wizard of Oz, saying, “We’re not in Kansas anymore,” emphasising the unprecedented amount of uncertainty.

She warned that the volatility had already triggered stress signals in financial markets, citing recent changes in the US Treasury yield curve.

Tariff hikes, global fallout

According to Georgieva, recent tariffs imposed by the United States, as well as retaliatory measures taken by China and the European Union, have increased global economic tension.

These steps have raised US effective tariff rates to levels not seen in decades, provoking countermeasures that are now affecting economies around the world.

“As the giants face off, smaller countries are caught in the cross currents,” according to Georgieva.

Because the United States, the European Union, and China are the world’s top three importers, their tensions have far-reaching consequences for smaller and emerging economies, particularly those already vulnerable to tightening financial circumstances.

Short-term pain and long-term risks

While some large economies may get a brief boost from domestic investment in reaction to tariffs, Georgieva cautioned that the advantages are slow to emerge and unevenly distributed.

Long-term protectionism, on the other hand, will almost certainly harm productivity and creativity.

“Protectionism erodes productivity over the long run, especially in smaller economies,” Georgieva said.

She claimed that by protecting industries from foreign competition, governments risk impeding innovation and entrepreneurship.

Georgieva also urged governments to remain committed to economic and financial reforms, citing the need for credible and nimble monetary policy, effective financial oversight, and the safeguarding of aid flows to low-income countries.

She also emphasised the need for exchange rate flexibility for emerging nations, claiming that it would assist them in navigating recurring global shocks.

Georgieva issued a clear call to diplomacy, encouraging the world’s leading economies to return to the negotiating table and establish a trade agreement that promotes openness while reversing the growth of tariffs and nontariff barriers.

“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she responded. “All countries, large and small alike, can and should play their part to strengthen the global economy in an era of more frequent and severe shocks.”

The post IMF Chief warns of economic uncertainty amid US-China-EU trade tensions appeared first on Invezz