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Walmart is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday, offering investors insights into consumer spending trends as economic uncertainties persist.

Analysts are forecasting revenue of $180.01 billion for the quarter, with earnings per share expected at 64 cents, according to LSEG estimates.

As the largest grocer in the US, Walmart serves as a crucial indicator of consumer health, particularly in light of a 0.9% decline in January retail sales, well below the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.2% drop.

The question remains whether this downturn signals broader economic caution or is merely a seasonal fluctuation following strong holiday spending.

With the retail sector adjusting to changing consumer habits and external economic pressures, Walmart’s earnings will provide key insights into both discretionary and essential spending patterns.

Consumer spending slowdown follows strong holiday sales

Walmart’s upcoming earnings will be closely watched for signs of resilience in the face of shifting consumer behavior.

While retail sales surged during the November-December holiday period—rising 3.8% year over year to $964.4 billion, according to the National Retail Federation—spending patterns softened in January.

Factors such as severe winter storms, post-holiday fatigue, and disruptions from the Los Angeles wildfires contributed to the slowdown, affecting both retailers and restaurant chains, including Burger King and Popeyes.

Despite this, Walmart has demonstrated resilience, benefiting from its ability to attract higher-income customers. The retailer reported that households earning over $100,000 accounted for 75% of its market share gains in the third quarter.

Its e-commerce segment continues to deliver strong results, with ten consecutive quarters of double-digit growth.

E-commerce and advertising drive Walmart’s growth strategy

Beyond its core retail business, Walmart has been expanding its high-margin segments, including its advertising arm and third-party marketplace.

While still smaller than Amazon’s equivalent operations, these divisions have steadily contributed to profitability. Walmart+—the company’s subscription-based membership program—has also played a role in increasing customer loyalty and engagement.

In response to these growth drivers, Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman raised Walmart’s price target to $153, citing its diversification beyond traditional retail.

The company’s investments in automation, supply chain efficiency, and digital sales have positioned it well to sustain revenue momentum, even as consumer spending moderates.

Walmart stock performance

Walmart shares have surged approximately 83% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has gained around 4% over the same period.

As of Wednesday’s close, Walmart’s stock stood at $104.00, reflecting a 15% year-to-date increase.

The company’s fourth-quarter results will likely provide a clearer picture of whether its diversified revenue streams can offset potential consumer pullbacks.

With ongoing discussions on federal policies, including tariffs, and broader economic shifts influencing retail trends, Walmart’s guidance for the year ahead will be closely analyzed by investors.

The post Walmart earnings preview: What to expect before Thursday’s opening bell appeared first on Invezz

KKR (NYSE: KKR) has emerged victorious in a months-long battle for control of Fuji Soft, securing a 57.92% stake in the Japanese software company after the second stage of its tender offer bid.

This marks the end of a fierce competition with Bain Capital, which ultimately withdrew its proposal earlier this week.

The acquisition reflects the growing influence of foreign private equity firms in Japan’s corporate landscape, as global investors push for reforms in underperforming companies.

KKR’s ability to outbid Bain underscores the intensifying deal-making momentum in Japan, where activist investors and buyout firms increasingly target businesses with governance issues or undervalued assets.

KKR prevails after months of escalating bids

KKR’s pursuit of Fuji Soft began in August 2023, when it made an initial offer to acquire the company.

Bain quickly countered with a higher bid in October, backed by Fuji Soft’s founder, Hiroshi Nozawa, who criticized the privatization process and argued that Bain’s proposal better-served shareholder interests.

Despite Nozawa’s support for Bain, Fuji Soft’s board aligned with KKR, prompting Bain to launch a hostile bid in December.

The takeover battle became increasingly contentious as Bain publicly questioned the board’s handling of the process and accused it of lacking transparency.

By February 2024, KKR had outmaneuvered Bain with a final offer of 9,850 yen per share. Bain withdrew its bid, making KKR the undisputed winner in one of Japan’s most high-profile buyout contests.

Activist investors paved the way for Fuji Soft’s privatization

The takeover battle was set in motion by Singapore-based 3D Investment Partners, an activist investor that had been pressuring Fuji Soft to restructure its business.

3D called for the company to sell off real estate assets and conduct share buybacks, arguing that its stock was undervalued.

As part of its push for change, 3D solicited buyout proposals from private equity firms in 2023, a move that ultimately attracted the interest of both KKR and Bain.

The investor also urged Fuji Soft to appoint an external auditor to oversee the privatization process, highlighting growing concerns about corporate governance standards in Japan.

KKR’s success fuels Japan’s private equity boom

KKR’s acquisition of Fuji Soft adds to a growing list of high-profile foreign takeovers in Japan, where global funds are aggressively targeting companies they view as inefficient or underperforming.

Japan has long been known for its conservative corporate culture, but shifting regulatory attitudes and rising shareholder activism have created new opportunities for private equity firms.

As global investors continue to push for reforms, the Fuji Soft buyout serves as a blueprint for future deal-making in Japan, with firms like KKR leveraging deep capital reserves to drive restructuring efforts.

With the Fuji Soft battle settled, KKR now faces the challenge of transforming the company, balancing its software business with the need for operational efficiencies.

The deal may also encourage further activist-led takeovers, as investors seek to unlock value in Japan’s corporate sector.

The post KKR secures majority stake in Fuji Soft after intense takeover fight with Bain appeared first on Invezz

Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday as investors reacted to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose 25% tariffs on imports of autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical goods.

Concerns over trade tensions weighed on sentiment, while policy moves in New Zealand and Australia influenced regional markets.

Meanwhile, Chinese economic data and corporate earnings reports from major banks and tech firms added to market volatility.

Asian markets react to trade tensions and economic data

Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.38%, while the broader Topix index slipped 0.31%, as a widening trade deficit weighed on investor sentiment.

However, the latest Reuters Tankan poll showed improving business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers, with the index rising to +3, the highest level since November.

South Korea’s Kospi surged 1.83%, while the Kosdaq added 0.62%, supported by gains in chipmakers.

In China, the CSI 300 index rose 0.42% in choppy trade, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged down 0.33%.

In India, stocks rebounded, with the Nifty 50 gaining 0.21% and the BSE Sensex rising 0.38%, snapping a recent losing streak.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.73% to 8,419.20, a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first rate cut since November 2020.

New Zealand cuts rates again as economy slows

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75%, marking its fourth consecutive rate cut.

The move was widely expected, as inflation continues to ease and economic growth slows.

The New Zealand dollar weakened 0.33% to $0.5719 against the US dollar following the announcement.

New Zealand’s inflation rate stood at 2.2% in Q4 2024, with price growth slowing for seven of the last eight quarters, according to LSEG data.

Wall Street sets new records as energy stocks lead gains

Overnight, U.S. markets ended higher, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 6,129.58, after briefly touching an intraday high of 6,129.63.

The Nasdaq Composite added 0.07% to 20,041.26, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 10 points to 44,556.34.

The energy sector was the best-performing segment in the S&P 500, rising 1.9%, while tech stocks also saw gains.

Samsung, SK Hynix gain on South Korea’s chip tax credit boost

Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix climbed 3.16% and 4.29%, respectively, after reports indicated that South Korea’s K-Chips Act could raise investment tax credit rates for semiconductor firms.

The tax credit for large- and medium-sized enterprises is expected to increase from 15% to 20%, while small- and medium-sized firms may see their rate rise from 25% to 30%, according to Business Korea.

Samsung is expected to benefit significantly as it continues developing its NRD-K R&D complex at its Giheung Campus.

HSBC announces $2 billion share buyback as profits rise

Europe’s largest lender, HSBC, announced a $2 billion share buyback after reporting a 6.5% rise in annual pre-tax profit, driven by the sale of its Canadian banking business.

The bank’s full-year revenue came in at $65.85 billion, slightly lower than the $66.1 billion recorded in 2023.

Q4 profit before tax nearly doubled to $2.3 billion, as last year’s $3 billion impairment charge no longer weighed on results.

HSBC expects to complete the share buyback by the end of Q1 2025.

The bank also announced plans to cut costs by $1.5 billion annually by the end of 2026.

National Australia Bank falls 8% on weak earnings

Shares of National Australia Bank (NAB) dropped 8.63% after reporting weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings.

The lender’s cash earnings for the three months ending December 31 fell to AU$1.74 billion ($1.11 billion), a 2% decline compared to the previous quarter.

NAB’s performance was hit by lower margins and rising credit impairments, as more borrowers struggled to meet repayments.

China’s property sector still weak

China’s new home prices fell 5% year-on-year in January, slightly better than the 5.3% decline in December.

However, prices remained unchanged month-on-month, signaling that the country’s prolonged real estate downturn is far from over.

The post Asia markets mixed as Trump proposes tariffs on key industries, New Zealand cuts rates appeared first on Invezz

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order aimed at aggressively lowering the cost of in vitro fertilization (IVF), positioning the move as a response to rising concerns over family formation and fertility treatment accessibility.

The decision comes as part of his broader election campaign strategy, reinforcing his appeal among middle-class families struggling with high medical expenses.

The order is expected to trigger resistance from conservative factions within his base, particularly those who oppose IVF on ethical and religious grounds.

Trump has given his advisers 90 days to formulate policies that would reduce out-of-pocket costs associated with IVF, which can range from $12,000 to $30,000 per cycle in the US.

The initiative underscores his administration’s effort to expand access to fertility treatments while simultaneously maintaining a staunch anti-abortion stance—a contradiction that has left both supporters and critics questioning his long-term policy direction.

His decision follows the Alabama Supreme Court’s controversial ruling that frozen embryos could be considered children, sparking fears that IVF access could be threatened under Republican leadership.

Fertility treatment costs in the US

The high cost of IVF in the US remains one of the biggest barriers for couples seeking fertility treatment.

A single IVF cycle can cost between $12,000 and $25,000, with additional expenses for medication, genetic testing, and embryo storage pushing the total price even higher.

Unlike other developed nations that offer government-subsidized fertility treatments, the US relies on private insurance coverage, which remains inconsistent across states and employers.

Trump’s order is expected to push for policy changes that could either mandate broader insurance coverage or introduce federal subsidies for IVF.

During his campaign, he promised to make fertility treatment more affordable, a pledge that his administration is now attempting to fulfill.

His push for lower IVF costs comes as fertility rates in the US continue to decline, with birth rates reaching a record low in 2023.

Addressing this issue has become a political talking point, with both Democrats and Republicans recognizing the economic implications of a shrinking workforce and aging population.

Critics argue that while Trump is now championing affordable IVF, his administration played a role in restricting reproductive healthcare access through the appointment of Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.

The conservative push against abortion rights has inadvertently placed fertility treatments under scrutiny, with some anti-abortion advocates voicing concerns over embryo destruction during IVF procedures.

Political divisions over reproductive rights

Trump’s executive order has sparked a deep divide within the Republican Party, exposing internal conflicts over reproductive rights.

While many conservatives have long supported pro-family policies, the ethical implications of IVF have made the issue contentious.

Anti-abortion groups argue that the procedure often results in unused embryos, which they equate to the loss of human life.

This ideological stance has led to resistance against legislation that would ensure IVF access, as seen in last year’s Senate vote where almost all Republican senators opposed a measure to protect fertility treatments.

The Alabama ruling further intensified the debate, forcing Trump to clarify his stance on the issue.

In response to the growing backlash, he declared himself “totally in favor of IVF” and positioned himself as a leader in expanding access to fertility treatments.

His decision reflects an attempt to balance the demands of pro-family conservatives with the religious right, which remains a key voting bloc.

Meanwhile, Democrats, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, have leveraged the issue to highlight contradictions within Trump’s reproductive health policies.

Harris has repeatedly emphasized that attacks on abortion rights could spill over into fertility treatments, warning that Republican-led states may impose restrictions that make IVF less accessible.

With reproductive rights expected to be a central theme in the upcoming election, Trump’s executive order appears to be a strategic move to mitigate potential political damage.

The future of IVF access in the US

The long-term impact of Trump’s IVF policy remains uncertain, with many questioning whether his administration will follow through on reducing costs or if the order is primarily a political gesture.

The move comes at a time when the IVF industry is facing increased scrutiny, particularly after the Alabama Supreme Court ruling raised concerns about the legal status of frozen embryos.

Clinics in the state briefly paused IVF treatments in response to legal uncertainties, highlighting the fragile nature of fertility treatment access under shifting political landscapes.

The commercialization of fertility treatments remains a major concern. With the US IVF market valued at over $8 billion, industry players may resist regulatory changes that could affect profitability.

Trump’s executive order has not yet outlined specific mechanisms to reduce costs, raising doubts about whether meaningful financial relief will reach families in need.

As the 2024 election nears, both parties are expected to amplify their positions on IVF, with Republicans seeking to reconcile internal divisions and Democrats pushing for broader reproductive healthcare protections.

Trump’s move to champion IVF affordability may win support from middle-class families, but it also risks alienating the religious conservatives who have long been a crucial part of his voter base.

The coming months will determine whether his administration can successfully navigate this politically sensitive issue or whether the contradictions in his reproductive health policies will become a liability.

The post Trump’s IVF executive order: Costs, political impact, and conservative backlash appeared first on Invezz

Goldman Sachs analysts asserted that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine and the subsequent easing of sanctions on Russia would likely have a negligible impact on Russia’s oil flows. 

The financial institution contended that even with reduced sanctions, Russia’s capacity to substantially increase its oil exports would remain limited due to a confluence of factors, including existing infrastructural constraints and potential lingering hesitancy among some international buyers to resume full-scale trade with Russia.

Russia output hinges on OPEC+ quota

Goldman Sachs was quoted in a report by Reuters:

We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports.

US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that it had reached an agreement with Russia to engage in further discussions aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. 

This development signals a potential breakthrough in the diplomatic efforts to end the hostilities that have plagued the region for a significant period. 

The announcement did not provide specific details about the agenda or timeline for the upcoming talks, but it underscored the commitment of both sides to explore diplomatic avenues for peace.

OPEC’s influence

OPEC+, an alliance that encompasses the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, is a significant force in the global oil market. 

This powerful coalition is responsible for producing approximately half of the world’s crude oil supply. 

The decisions made by OPEC+ regarding production levels, quotas, and cuts can have a profound impact on oil prices, market stability, and the global economy.

OPEC itself consists of 13 member countries, primarily from the Middle East and Africa, that hold substantial oil reserves. 

By collaborating with other major oil-producing nations like Russia, OPEC+ has expanded its influence and control over the global oil market. 

The alliance’s ability to coordinate production levels and respond to market fluctuations allows it to exert significant influence on oil prices and supply.

OPEC may extend output cuts

Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ will likely delay its planned gradual increase in oil production from April to July 2023. 

This is due to increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other member producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding US policy.

In December, OPEC+ delayed its plan to increase output until April, extending its current round of production cuts through the first quarter of 2025. 

This decision was made due to weak demand and increased supply from non-OPEC members.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had stated that OPEC+ producers were not planning any additional delays to the monthly oil supply increases, according to a report from Russia’s RIA state news agency on Monday.

As a major global oil supplier, Russia significantly influences oil markets and prices worldwide.

Brent could reach $79 per barrel later this month, driven by potential improvements in positioning and valuation, according to Goldman Sachs.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $76.17 per barrel, up 0.4% from the previous close. 

The post Why a Ukraine ceasefire won’t significantly impact Russia’s oil exports appeared first on Invezz

The UK’s inflation rate unexpectedly surged to 3% in January, surpassing analyst expectations and raising concerns about the pace of future interest rate cuts.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed a sharp rise from December’s 2.5% inflation, driven by higher transport and food costs.

The increase complicates the Bank of England’s (BoE) plans to ease monetary policy, as policymakers weigh inflationary pressures against sluggish economic growth.

Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a lower reading of 2.8% for January.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco prices, rose to 3.7% from 3.2% in December—marking its highest level since April 2024.

The core services inflation rate also climbed from 4.4% to 5.0%, signaling persistent cost pressures in the economy.

The ONS highlighted that transport and food prices contributed the most to the monthly inflation increase, while housing and household services helped offset some of the upward pressure.

Despite the inflation spike, the British pound remained stable against the US dollar, trading at $1.2615 following the data release.

Government and BoE face policy challenges

Responding to the inflation data, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized that economic growth and increasing disposable income remain key priorities.

However, she acknowledged that “millions of families are still struggling to make ends meet” amid rising living costs.

The latest inflation figures add complexity to the BoE’s monetary policy outlook.

Earlier in February, the central bank implemented its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.5% amid slowing inflation and weak economic activity.

While policymakers have signaled further rate reductions, they also warned that rising global energy costs and regulatory price adjustments could push headline inflation to 3.7% by the third quarter of 2025.

The BoE maintains its long-term forecast of inflation returning to the 2% target by 2027.

BoE slashes UK growth forecast for 2025

Alongside its inflation projections, the BoE slashed its UK economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1.5% to 0.75%, citing weaker-than-expected consumer spending and external risks.

The downward revision suggests that while inflation remains a concern, the central bank must also navigate slowing economic momentum.

With inflationary pressures persisting, investors and policymakers will closely watch upcoming data releases to assess the timing of further interest rate cuts.

For now, the sharp rise in January inflation adds another layer of uncertainty to the UK’s economic trajectory.

The post UK inflation rises to 3% in January on higher transport and food costs appeared first on Invezz

While cryptos remain weak amid pessimistic macro developments, Maker (MKR) displayed resilience with substantial price gains over the past week.

The altcoin trades at $1,196 after gaining 10% and over 25% in the past day and week.

On-chain data indicates continued gains as Maker’s record high daily revenue on Feb 10 bolstered the alt’s strength.

MakerDAO rebranded to Sky Network in August 2024

Maker’s bullish on-chain and technical indicators

While the crypto space battles uncertainty, MKR exhibits an optimistic trajectory.

Maker’s daily revenue skyrocketed to yearly highs on Feb 10 as the project generated $10 million in returns.

Source – Artemis

The surged revenue likely kept the altcoin’s price afloat amid the prevailing bearish markets.

The OI-Weighted Funding Rate stats support the optimism, with more traders executing long bets (Coinglass data).

The metric measures trader sentiments, where positive rates indicate bullishness and negative bearishness.

MKR’s OI-Weighted Funding Rate is 0.009% – a bullish bias and conviction in more price gains.

The daily Relative Strength Index supports the upside narrative as its 59 reading indicates more room for upward price actions.

Also, the Moving Average Convergence’s latest bullish crossover with the signal line highlights adequate momentum for extended gains.

MKR price action

The alt has exhibited an upside trajectory since breaking above a falling trendline on Feb 12.

A candle closing beyond the line triggered a swift 10% surge past $1,023.

MKR extended to $1,196 at press time, with significant increases in 24-hour trading volume suggesting continued upswings.

Chart by Coinmarketcap

Bulls target the daily resistance zone at $1,700, an over 40% gain from current prices.

Meanwhile, broad market sentiments will determine MKR’s trajectory in the upcoming sessions.

Continued bear dominance could delay the anticipated surges, welcoming extended declines or consolidations.

Crypto market overview

Cryptocurrencies displayed weakness on Wednesday as Bitcoin plunged to $93K before rebounding to $95.65K at press time.

Various risk factors that have reduced investor interest contribute to the prevailing crypto market underperformance.

Digital assets started feeling the heat after Donald Trump’s tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico.

The hawkish remarks from the US Fed (which signaled no imminent rate cuts) added to the downward pressure.

Also, the latest pump-and-dump schemes involving political figures have ruined sentiments in the marketplace.

Meme tokens face immense criticism following LIBRA’s fallout, which has shaken the Argentine political scene.

The Fear and Greed Index displays “fear” at 37, signaling faded investor confidence in cryptocurrencies.

Nevertheless, analysts remain bold despite the latest flash dip.

Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin and altcoins’ performances echo previous bull runs.

Nevertheless, trader and investor caution remains paramount as sentiments display overwhelming negativity.

The post Maker shows strength as daily revenue hits yearly high—what’s next for MKR price? appeared first on Invezz

China is making a serious push to lead the world in technology.

From artificial intelligence and electric vehicles to semiconductors and renewable energy, the country is accelerating its efforts to outpace the West. 

President Xi Jinping’s meeting with top business leaders is a statement to the West that Beijing is changing its approach.

The once heavily scrutinized private sector is now being encouraged. 

Does China have a chance of becoming the global tech leader? 

Is China building the next AI empire?

Artificial intelligence is at the center of China’s strategy.

The rise of DeepSeek, a large language model developed without the latest American chips, has truly shaken the industry.

It has shown that China can innovate despite US sanctions. 

Chinese AI firms now file more patents than any other country.

Tencent and Alibaba are integrating AI into their platforms, while Huawei is developing its semiconductor solutions.

The government is pouring billions into AI research, and state-backed firms are advancing quantum computing at a pace that rivals the US.

The numbers support the trend. According to the World Intellectual Property Organization, China accounted for almost half of global AI patent filings in 2023.

While the US still leads in AI infrastructure, China is proving that it can develop competitive alternatives.

DeepSeek’s emergence is reminiscent of Alibaba’s 2014 IPO, which triggered a boom in Chinese consumer-tech innovation.

If AI follows a similar trajectory, China could dominate the next generation of digital applications.

A new king of electric vehicles?

The auto industry is transforming, and China is leading the way.

In 2023, China became the world’s largest exporter of electric vehicles, overtaking Japan.

BYD, the country’s top EV maker, sold more cars than Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2023.

This was unthinkable a few years ago.

Source: Statista

Batteries are a key reason for this success.

China produces over 80% of the world’s EV batteries, with companies like CATL and BYD at the forefront.

The country also dominates the supply chain for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, key materials for battery production. 

While Western automakers struggle with costs and infrastructure, China has scaled up production and cut prices.

The result was a flood of affordable EVs hitting global markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia.

However, the West is pushing back. The US and the EU are considering tariffs to slow down Chinese EV imports.

Meanwhile, local subsidies in the US are driving domestic battery production. But China isn’t going to slow down that easily.

Xi Jinping’s change in strategy

In 2020, China’s tech giants were under attack. Jack Ma, once the face of Chinese innovation, disappeared from public view after criticizing regulators.

Alibaba’s fintech arm, Ant Group, had its $34 billion IPO canceled. 

Beijing cracked down on ride-hailing, gaming, and education firms, wiping billions off the stock market.

The private sector got the message: growth was welcome, but power was not.

But Xi Jinping’s recent meeting with business leaders, including Ma and Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei, was designed to restore confidence. He promised fewer regulatory fines and a fairer market for private firms. 

This is a calculated move. China’s economy is slowing, and private investment has been declining. By reassuring entrepreneurs, Xi hopes to stabilize business sentiment.

However, the old rules still apply. The government wants the private sector to thrive, but only within state-approved boundaries.

Entrepreneurs must serve national goals, such as AI development and advanced manufacturing. The era of unchecked private tech empires is over.

Is China finally breaking free from Western tech?

For years, China relied on the West for semiconductors and high-tech components.

US sanctions aimed to cut off its access to advanced chips. Many expected China to struggle.

But Huawei’s latest smartphone, powered by a domestically developed 7nm chip, shocked industry experts.

This suggests China is making progress in chip manufacturing, despite restrictions.

Even though China can produce mid-range chips, they are still years behind in high-end semiconductor fabrication.

The US, Japan, and the Netherlands control the most advanced chipmaking equipment, and export restrictions are limiting China’s access.

To counter this, Beijing has poured over $100 billion into its domestic semiconductor industry, with the clear goal of achieving complete tech independence from the West.

Western firms, meanwhile, are doubling down. The US is investing heavily in domestic chip production, with a $52 billion CHIPS Act designed to ensure American leadership. Europe is also boosting semiconductor funding.

Will China become the world’s tech leader?

China is making a serious play for global tech dominance.

Its government is directing vast resources into AI, EVs, and semiconductors.

Its companies are innovating despite Western sanctions. And its economic mode, the so-called “state-backed capitalism”, gives it the ability to push forward long-term strategies.

However, it won’t be an easy task. The West is actively working to curb China’s rise, limiting access to critical technologies.

Domestic challenges, such as a weakening property market and reluctant investors could slow progress.

And while China excels in scaling production, it still lags in cutting-edge breakthroughs.

The next decade will determine whether China can fully break free from Western tech dependence and take the lead.

If its progress in AI, EVs, and chips continues at this pace, it won’t just be catching up, but it will be setting the new global standard.

The post Can China become the world’s top tech leader? appeared first on Invezz

The Nikkei 225 index has remained in a consolidation phase in the past few months, underperforming most global indices like the German DAX, FTSE 100, and Nasdaq 100 indices that have surged to their record highs.

The index, which tracks the biggest Japanese companies, was trading at ¥39,000, a few points below the year-to-date high of ¥40,380. So, let’s explore why the Nikkei index has wavered and what to expect. 

Bank of Japan rate hikes

The main reason why the Nikkei 225 index has wavered this year is the fact that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has embarked on a highly hawkish tone

It has hiked interest rates by 0.25% this year and pointed to more rate cuts in the coming months. 

Odds of higher rate hikes have increased after Japan published strong GDP data this week. The economy expanded from 0.4% in Q3’24 to 0.7% in Q4’24, higher than the median estimate of 0.3%.

This economic growth translated to an annualized growth rate of 2.8%, higher than the median estimate of 1.0%. It was much higher than the 1.7% growth in the third quarter of last year. 

Japan’s GDP growth has been helped by a surge in private consumption, which rose by 0.2% in Q4, also higher than the expected drop of 0.3%. Consumer spending has grown because of the country’s ongoing wage growth. External demand and government spending are also resilient.

Japan’s inflation has also surged in the past few months, a notable performance for a country that existed for decades without inflation. The headline consumer price index rose to 3.6% in December, much higher than the previous 2.9%. 

Japan yen and yields surge

Therefore, the BoJ has hinted that it may hike rates further this year, leading to a stronger Japanese yen. The USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped to 152 from the year-to-date high of 158.81. 

Similarly, the yield of government bonds has soared in the past few months. The ten-year government bond yield jumped to 1.45% from last year’s low of 1.43%. That yield remained in the negative zone a few years ago. 

The 5-year and 30-year Japan Government Bond (JGB) yields have also climbed to their multi-year highs this year. This trend may continue as the BoJ maintains a hawkish tone. 

The Nikkei 225 index often does well when the Japanese yen is cooling because many companies in the index are exporters. This includes automakers like Toyota and Honda. 

At the same time, higher bond yields have led to a sector rotation from equities to fixed income assets. 

Many large Japanese companies have surged this year. Nintendo stock price has soared in the last five straight weeks as demand for its gaming consoles jump. It has risen by over 44% in the last 12 months and moved to a record high. 

Softbank, the telecom and technology giant, has also soared to a record high as it boosts its investments in the artificial intelligence industry. Other notable top-performing Nikkei 225 index companies are Fast Retailing, Sony, and Hitachi.

Nikkei 225 index analysis

Nikkei chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 index has moved sideways in the past few months. It has remained inside the key channel at ¥38,000 and ¥40,380 since September last year.

This consolidation happened after the index jumped sharply a few months earlier. That is a sign that it has formed a bullish flag pattern, a popular continuation sign. 

Therefore, the Nikkei 225 index will likely have a strong bullish breakout in the coming months. Such a move will see it rise to the next key resistance level at ¥40,380, followed by last year’s high of ¥42,395. 

The post Nikkei 225 index forecast: Why have Japan stocks stalled? appeared first on Invezz

Most altcoins have crashed by double digits in the past few weeks. Solana, Bonk, Pepe, and Raydium prices have plunged by double digits, meaning that they have moved into a deep bear market. So, let’s explore why these altcoins have plunged and what to expect in the near term. 

Why Solana, Bonk, Pepe, and Raydium have crashed

Solana price has plunged from near $300 in January to $167 today, costing investors billions of dollars. Similarly, Bonk, the biggest meme coin in the Solana ecosystem, has fallen by 75% from last year’s high of $0.000060 to $0.00001528. 

Pepe coin, another popular meme coin, has crashed from $0.00002828 to $0.0000092, while Raydium (RAY) is down by over 40%. Other altcoins have plunged in the past few months. 

Bitcoin price weakness

These altcoins have plunged because of the ongoing weakness of Bitcoin price. BTC has plunged from the all-time high of $109,200 in January to about $95,000 today.  In most cases, altcoins usually crash hard when the price of Bitcoin falls, and vice versa.

On the positive side, the ongoing Bitcoin retreat is part of the formation of a bullish flag pattern on the weekly chart. It is also forming a megaphone pattern on the daily chart, a sign that the BTC price will explode higher in the coming months. 

Bitcoin has some bullish catalysts. First, there are elevated hopes that Donald Trump will agree to a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve later this year. The pros and cons of having such a reserve are being evaluated by David Sacks, who is the crypto and AI czar.

Second, Bitcoin ETF inflows are still strong and currently stand at over $41 billion. There are chances that these flows will get to $50 billion this year. 

Third, Bitcoin supply remains under pressure because of the growing mining difficulty and falling reserves in exchanges. 

Bitcoin price has formed a megaphone pattern

Solana ecosystem challenges

The Solana, Bonk, and Raydium prices have plunged because of the ongoing concerns about the Solana ecosystem.

Solana has become the most popular blockchain for launching meme coins, especially after the Pump.fun launch. Data on its website shows that thousands of new meme coins are being created today.

That has led to major rug pulls that have cost investors billions of dollars. Three key examples of this are Official Trump, Melania, and Libra. All these tokens surged after their launch, attracting millions of traders. They then crashed, costing these novice traders billions and making insiders a lot of money. 

Therefore, the implication is that Solana will be known as the blockchain network for scams. Volume handled in its ecosystem will likely continue falling over time. Data shows that Solana’s DEX volume has crashed by 20% in the last seven days. 

Federal Reserve and tariffs

Solana and other altcoins like Bonk, Raydium, and Pepe have also crashed because of the actions by the Federal Reserve. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50% in the year’s first meeting.

Officials have hinted that the bank will not be in a hurry to slash interest rates this year because of the elevated inflation. Data released this month showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.0% in January, the highest level in months. Core inflation has remained above 3%. 

US inflation may keep rising, forcing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates because of the upcoming Trump tariffs. Trump has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and he will add a 25% levy on Mexican and Canadian goods. Altcoin prices often crash when the Fed has a highly hawkish tone. 

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