The robust jobs report for September, released just weeks ahead of Election Day, could provide Vice President Kamala Harris with a significant boost in her presidential campaign.
The report revealed that the US economy added 254,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%.
This marked the second consecutive month of falling unemployment, giving Harris a timely opportunity to highlight the administration’s economic successes.
September jobs report: A potential advantage for Harris
Economic figures like those from the latest report can be a critical factor in shaping voter perception, and according to political analysts, the news could be favourable for Harris’s campaign.
“On the margin, good news is good news for the Harris campaign,” said Ed Mills, managing director and Washington policy analyst at Raymond James.
The strong job creation in September contrasts with recent criticisms from former President Donald Trump, particularly during the September debate, when he questioned why Harris and President Joe Biden had not done more to create jobs during their time in office.
The September report provides Harris with a concrete rebuttal to Trump’s claims.
While Trump accused the Biden-Harris administration of failing to deliver on job growth, the figures show that the US economy is still expanding, despite the challenges it has faced over the last several years.
Economic momentum or a temporary blip?
Despite the positive figures from September, it is important to note that the October jobs report may not be as strong.
Various factors could impact the next set of data, including an ongoing strike at Boeing and the lingering effects of Hurricane Helene on employment in certain regions.
BNP Paribas analysts have also highlighted pre-election uncertainty as a potential dampener on job creation in the coming month.
The Harris campaign, however, is wasting no time capitalizing on the good news.
Shortly after the report’s release, the campaign took to social media to highlight the job growth, while the Trump campaign responded by criticizing Harris’s economic policies, pointing to back-to-back losses in manufacturing jobs.
Yet, recent economic data overall has painted a more positive picture for the Biden-Harris administration.
Growth in the US economy has been steady, with second-quarter figures showing a 3.0% annual growth rate, and a similar number expected for the third quarter.
Inflation, which has been a key issue in the election, is also showing signs of easing.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, dropped to a 12-month rate of 2.2% in its most recent reading, down from 2.5%.
Harris gains ground on economic messaging
A recent survey from the Cook Political Report indicates that Harris is improving her standing against Trump on key economic issues, particularly on who voters believe is better equipped to manage inflation.
In August, Trump held a 6-point lead over Harris in this area, but that advantage has now disappeared.
The Cook survey attributes this shift to Harris’s focus on affordability during her campaign, including promises to lower the costs of pharmaceutical drugs, address price gouging, and promote affordable housing.
While the latest jobs report provides a much-needed boost for Harris’s campaign, the November 1 jobs report, due just days before the election, could also play a critical role.
A weaker-than-expected report could complicate the positive momentum Harris has gained from September’s strong numbers.
The trajectory of jobs under Biden-Harris
Despite uncertainties surrounding the upcoming jobs report, the broader trajectory of job creation under the Biden administration has been impressive, according to experts like Ed Mills.
“The trajectory of jobs during the Biden administration has been pretty substantial,” said Mills.
The Harris campaign is expected to continue highlighting this trajectory in the final stretch of the election, emphasizing the administration’s efforts to create jobs and support economic recovery.
While Trump’s campaign is likely to continue hammering Harris on economic issues, the September jobs report offers Harris a valuable talking point in defending the administration’s record.
For voters, especially those undecided on economic issues, the data from September may provide a compelling reason to back Harris in the upcoming election.
The post Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: how the jobs report, inflation could shape US presidential elections appeared first on Invezz