Speculation surrounding a potential cryptocurrency launch by former US President Donald Trump has intensified, with betting markets placing an 84% probability of the event occurring before the November 2024 elections.
This surge in odds, seen on the prediction platform Polymarket, follows the announcement of the Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial project, which aims to release a new governance token called “WLFI.”
Source: Polymarket
Betting markets react to Trump token rumors
Polymarket, a platform that allows users to bet on the likelihood of various real-world events, saw an influx of bets on whether Trump would issue a cryptocurrency before the upcoming presidential election.
On Friday, the probability of Trump launching a token by November 2024 surged to over 84%, though it later retracted slightly.
Just a day earlier, the odds were 40%, up from only 16% the previous month.
The sharp rise in interest reflects growing speculation in the cryptocurrency market, as investors weigh the likelihood of a Trump-backed digital asset.
The betting market for Trump’s potential crypto launch has attracted over $1.7 million in wagers.
To settle the market, conclusive proof must be provided that Trump is involved in launching a new token by November 4, 2024, at 11:59 PM ET.
Simply planning or announcing the project will not be enough; the token must be officially issued on a blockchain and verifiable by market participants.
What is the World Liberty Financial token?
The Trump family’s project, World Liberty Financial, plans to release a governance token named “WLFI.”
According to the project’s white paper, the token is part of a broader financial vision aimed at empowering users.
However, Trump’s direct involvement in issuing the token remains unclear, adding a layer of uncertainty to the speculation.
Investors are divided on whether the project will be launched in time to meet Polymarket’s deadline.
One Polymarket user, “Car,” who holds over 4,400 “Yes” shares, has pointed to recent developments, including the launch of several test tokens on Ethereum by the World Liberty Financial development team.
“Car” believes these activities could be enough to confirm a token launch and settle the market in favor of “Yes.”
On the other hand, another user, “Tenebrus7,” holding 2,000 “No” shares, remains skeptical.
They argue that even if a token is launched, it may be associated more with Trump’s son than with the former president himself, particularly given Trump’s history with controversial projects.
If Trump’s World Liberty Financial token is launched, it could significantly affect the cryptocurrency market, especially in the realm of meme coins and politically themed tokens.
A Trump-backed crypto token would likely garner significant media attention, potentially driving volatile price movements in the early stages of its release.
However, questions about its long-term viability remain, particularly given the lack of detailed information on its governance structure and use cases.
The novelty of a Trump-backed token could attract a wave of public interest, but its success will depend on more than just hype.
Investors will be looking for clear guidance on how the token will function, its specific utility, and whether it can generate sustained value in an increasingly crowded cryptocurrency market.
The potential launch of a Trump-affiliated cryptocurrency ahead of the 2024 elections could have broader political implications.
If successful, the project could energize Trump’s supporter base by leveraging the growing interest in cryptocurrencies to generate attention for his campaign.
However, any missteps or controversies surrounding the token could also provide fodder for criticism from his political opponents.
As the November election approaches, the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial project will remain under scrutiny.
Investors, political analysts, and cryptocurrency enthusiasts alike are watching to see whether the speculation surrounding Trump’s potential crypto launch will materialize—or whether it will remain another unfulfilled rumor in the fast-moving world of digital assets.
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